If you find yourself reading fantasy football articles throughout the season, you know how important it is to find a trustworthy analyst who does more than scratch the surface.
You want someone who understands both the ins and outs of the fantasy game as well as the X’s and O’s of football. With a fantasy market supersaturated with people looking to break into the sports industry, we are often inundated with misquoted, irrelevant statistics and, even worse, lazy analysis.
If you’re one of those people who believe rookie tight ends are terrible for fantasy, you may need to find a new source of information.
The tight end position is one of the toughest to navigate. We know Travis Kelce is the gold standard, but not every player, especially a rookie, can date Taylor Swift. Often, rookie tight ends endure a steep learning curve at the NFL level and while yes, some struggle, some do not.
Case in point: Sam LaPorta of the Lions. The fledgling tight end ranks fourth in targets, third in receiving yards, fourth in receiving yards per game and is currently tied for first in touchdowns among all tight ends.
With the suspension of Jameson Williams and the injury to Amon-Ra St. Brown, LaPorta was afforded the opportunity to be one of the Lions’ top receiving targets and has not disappointed. But if you believed all rookie tight ends are busts, you missed the boat.
Opportunity is everything and when you have a tight end sitting in a favorable matchup, rookie status doesn’t mean a thing.
If you are struggling with the bye weeks or for points at the position, rookies Luke Musgrave and Michael Mayer both stand out with increasing snap counts and favorable match-ups.
Musgrave will face Denver, a team that may have Justin Simmons and Josey Jewell watching out for the tight end, but still ranks 31st in DVOA and allows the most fantasy points per game to the position.
Mayer‘s snap count has increased in each of the last four weeks and has easily surpassed veteran Austin Hooper on the depth chart.
He wil face the Bears this week, a team that ranks 21st in DVOA against the position and is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the tight end. We may not know if Aidan O’Connell or Brian Hoyer will be under center, but we do know both will lean on the tight end.
Betting on the NFL?
Dismissing a player because of his rookie status is the easy way out. You may be right more than you’re wrong, but you miss plenty of opportunities to get a leg up at a tough position by doing so.
Trust in actual analysis instead of poor assumptions and generalizations and you’ll go far. You may even unearth a hidden gem or two along the way.