ACC Tournament odds, prediction: Fade North Carolina, Duke

Fourteen league tournaments tip off this week in college basketball, including ones to determine winners in all six power conferences. 

While North Carolina (+180) and Duke (+180) are heavy co-favorites to win the ACC Tournament that starts Tuesday, I found a team that warrants a 10/1 wager to pull off the upset and win the whole thing, thus earning an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. 

ACC Tournament odds

ACC Tournament pick: Clemson

The Tigers are a high-variance team that profiles well as a long shot in a tournament setting. High-variance squads with a wide range of outcomes give us a better chance of cashing an unlikelier one. 

Clemson plays primarily through stud center PJ Hall in the post, dragging defenses toward the interior and opening up perimeter jumpers for Joe Girard (43% from beyond the arc) and other Tiger sharpshooters.

As a result, Clemson ranks top 100 nationally in 3-point rate, taking 24 triples per game. 

Similarly, the Tigers play a compact, interior-based defense that allows plenty of long-range shots, ranking 282nd nationally in 3-point rate allowed. 

Therefore, Clemson’s games turn into shootouts, and the high-variance nature of those games means anything can happen. 

If the Tigers get hot from beyond the arc and opponents get cold, they could shoot their way into four straight ACC Tournament wins. They did precisely that during a five-game win streak in November, canning 43% of their 3s while holding opponents to 32% in wins over Boise State, Alcorn State, Alabama, Pitt and South Carolina.

I also feel surprisingly good about Clemson’s ability to skew variance. Because Hall is so dominant in the interior, the Tigers earn plenty of open jumpers, ranking in the top 80 nationally in Open 3 Rate.

Conversely, Clemson has played solid perimeter defense this season, ranking in the top 50 in Open 3 Rate allowed.

While these games are high-variance, the Tigers take better 3–point shots than they allow, and we can buy into that. 

The Tigers also bring some momentum into Washington D.C.’s Capital One Arena. They finished the year winning seven of their final 10 games, including a win over North Carolina in Chapel Hill. 

The Tigers still pulled a favorable draw in the conference tournament, even though they couldn’t earn the coveted double-bye. After a first-round bye as the No. 6 seed, they’ll play either Boston College or Miami in the second round Wednesday – teams they beat by double digits in their last meetings. 

Clemson would battle Virginia in a potential quarterfinal matchup and the Tigers dropped the regular season meeting, 66-65, at home on Feb. 3. 

However, both teams have trended in different directions since that matchup. Since Feb. 4, Clemson ranks third in the ACC in adjusted efficiency, while Virginia ranks eighth. 

The Cavaliers can’t score, boasting the ACC’s third-worst offense by efficiency. The Hoos lost four of their final seven games to close the season, scoring less than 50 points in four. 

So, if up-and-coming Clemson earns revenge by defeating down-and-out Virginia, the Tigers will have another potential revenge game against Duke in the semifinals. 

Betting on College Basketball?

However, Duke only beat Clemson by one point at Cameron, and it took a 9-for-21 (43%) 3-point shooting performance from the Blue Devils to get there. 

I’d imagine Duke sees some negative shooting regression in a rematch, and the Tigers can win that matchup with more normal shooting splits. 

That would get our Clemson ticket into the finals, where anything can happen.

The Tigers have proven they can beat any ACC opponent when making shots, and I’m willing to take a flier on them given their current form, style of play and potential path.

Pick: Clemson to win ACC Tournament (+950, FanDuel)