Football’s toughest division is the AFC East.
Headlined by the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills and the new-look Jets.
But you may be forgetting someone.
The Miami Dolphins have an electric roster led by one of the NFL’s most innovative coaches.
The Patriots seem doomed for last place, despite having Bill Belichick and an Over/Under win total of 7.5.
The AFC East will be a ruthless division.
But, as Sun-Tzu said, “in the midst of chaos, there is also [betting] opportunity.”
So, I’m looking at the AFC East division-winner odds at BetMGM Sportsbook, and I think I see some plus-money opportunity with the third favorite.
| AFC East odds |
|---|
| Bills +130 |
| Jets +250 |
| Dolphins +275 |
| Patriots +750 |
Dolphins to win AFC East (+275)
I’m looking to fade the Bills and the Jets.
The Bills are running it back and feature one of the best all-around rosters in the NFL.
They are the rightful favorites in the division.
But I have my doubts about Buffalo.
The Bills lost Tremaine Edmunds in the offseason, creating a weakness at middle linebacker.
Head coach Sean McDermott plans to take over defensive play-calling duties, which gives me pause.
The offensive line is a liability.
They lost guard Roger Saffold and replaced him with Connor McGovern, which can’t be an upgrade.
McGovern finished 65th of 77 guards in Pro Football Focus’s player grades last year.
Per Warren Sharp, the Bills allowed a 44 percent pressure rate in last season’s playoffs and now face a schedule of opposing pass rushers that’s top five in difficulty.
Also, the Bills’ schedule is ruthless.
They lose a home game because they’ll technically be the “home” team playing Jacksonville in London.
The Jaguars play in London the week before, too — yes, they’re playing back-to-back London games this season — so the Jags will already be acclimated.
The Bills have a late bye week, and four of their final six games come on the road.
Meanwhile, the Jets are extremely overvalued because of the Aaron Rodgers hype.
The Jets will install a new offense with a new quarterback and offensive coordinator.
Rodgers was a league-average quarterback last season, while Nathaniel Hackett was an embarrassment in his lone year as the Denver Broncos’ head coach.
Are we sure the new-look offense will work? How long will it take to put it together?
The Jets open the season with six brutally difficult games, so they won’t have time to settle in.
The Jets’ offensive line is also a big question mark.
They will lose a lot of games if they can’t protect the aging Rodgers.
There are too many question marks with the Jets.
So, that brings me to the Dolphins, who have a Super Bowl-caliber roster.
They significantly improved the defense by trading for Jalen Ramsey and hiring Vic Fangio as the coordinator.
They have an elite receiver duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and head coach Mike McDaniel is the brightest young offensive mind in the NFL.
Miami only has seven true road games this year, as they play the Chiefs in Germany instead of Kansas City.
Small schedule breaks like that could mean the difference in a division this close.
The key will be Tua Tagovailoa.
He finished second among quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per play last year, only behind Patrick Mahomes.
Betting on the NFL?
The Dolphins went 8-1 in Tagovailoa’s first nine starts of the year.
They are a juggernaut with their star quarterback under center.
Can Tagovailoa stay healthy? It’s impossible to say.
But the Dolphins have tremendous upside if he can, while the Bills and Jets are considerably overvalued.
I want to bet on upside instead of question marks.
So, I’m betting the Dolphins to win the AFC East with the longer-shot odds.