Alabama is no longer the team to beat in the SEC. LSU lost twice before October, essentially ensuring its place outside the playoff.
But on a weekend that features five matchups between ranked teams — plus five other ranked teams facing opponents with winning records — the matchup of the Tigers and the Crimson Tide still matters most.
The programs that have combined to win the SEC West eight of the past nine years will likely add to that total. In 2019, the dynamic of the lopsided rivalry changed when Joe Burrow came to Tuscaloosa and left on a rocket to the Heisman Trophy and national championship. Last season, Jayden Daniels destroyed Alabama’s title hopes, throwing for 182 yards and two touchdowns while running for 95 yards and a score, in an overtime win.
Now, Daniels is even better. Now, Alabama is even less intimidating. A program that has historically struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks will have no answer for the Heisman candidate, who is the nation’s fourth-leading passer and sixth-leading rusher, among quarterbacks, who leads the second-highest scoring offense in the nation.
LSU faces a defense which lost (at home) its only meeting against a top-35 passing attack, allowing 349 yards and three touchdowns to Texas’ Quinn Ewers. It also faces an inconsistent quarterback incapable of exploiting LSU’s suspect secondary. Jalen Milroe ranks 63rd in the nation, averaging 231 passing yards per game.
Take the Tigers (+3) — and a flier on a run that ends with an SEC title (+650).
Kansas State (+4) over TEXAS
Chris Klieman has taken down every team in the Big 12 — except one. The final intra-conference meeting with the Longhorns is his chance, with Maalik Murphy making his second career start against the defending Big 12 champs, who have held their past two opponents to a total of three points.
RUTGERS (+18.5) over Ohio State
The Scarlet Knights may not reach the end zone, but they may not need to thanks to the nation’s 13th-ranked defense. The Buckeyes’ struggles on offense have been most evident against the three toughest defenses (Penn State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin) they faced, which limited Ohio State to roughly 20 points per game.
CLEMSON (+3) over Notre Dame
The Irish are coming off back-to-back blowout wins. The Tigers are in a free fall, already matching their most losses in a season in a dozen years. Notre Dame also dominated last year’s matchup, 35-14. So, why Clemson? Why indeed.
OLE MISS (-3) over Texas A&M
It’s a trap. I know it’s a trap. But I’m still going to pay to see the card. The Aggies are 1-2 on the road this season, while Lane Kiffin has won back-to-back games against Jimbo Fisher.
AIR FORCE (-18.5) over Army
It isn’t a matchup of two run-heavy programs. It is a battle between the top-ranked rushing attack and the 128th-ranked run defense, whose offense has supported Army with two total touchdowns in the past three games.
PITTSBURGH (+21.5) over Florida State
Louisville already stepped on a landmine in Pittsburgh. The Seminoles could be forgiven for looking ahead to Miami, for looking past a team that lost to Notre Dame by 51 last week.
Oklahoma (-6) over OKLAHOMA STATE
Next year will mark the first time since 1910 that Bedlam doesn’t take place. The Sooners deserve to lose by 40 for killing an all-time rivalry, but the Cowboys’ secondary — which has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the Big 12 — won’t be able to stop Dillon Gabriel from having another big day.
Missouri (+15.5) over GEORGIA
Through two months, the Bulldogs have played the 100th-ranked schedule. Over Georgia’s final four regular-season games, it plays the sixth-toughest slate in the nation. The two-time defending champs haven’t beaten a ranked team this season, and the Tigers — who led Georgia until the final minutes of last season’s meeting — won’t make it easy, with the nation’s 15th-ranked passing attack.
Penn State (-10) over MARYLAND
The record books will remember Taulia Tagovailoa fondly. Fans will remember a quarterback who is 0-9 — losing by an average of 25.8 points per game — with 16 interceptions against ranked teams in the Big Ten. Last year, he threw for 74 yards in a 30-0 loss to the Nittany Lions.
LOUISVILLE (-9.5) over Virginia Tech
The Hokies are 0-3 on the road, including losses to Marshall and Rutgers. The Cardinals have won nine straight at home, where Louisville has won by an average of 30 points per game this season.
California (+24) over OREGON
Still, the current odds on the Ducks (+1400) to win the national championship are too good to pass up. The Pac-12 title will be theirs, playing their only remaining ranked opponents at home, before entering the conference championship as the favorite.
Betting on College Football?
Purdue (+32.5) over MICHIGAN
The Wolverines are too good to be impacted by the “Spygate” controversy. The 2007 Patriots went undefeated in the regular season under a similar cloud. The look-ahead potential for next week’s game against Penn State is a greater threat.
Washington (-3.5) over USC
Each team is a lock to surpass 40 points. Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. may combine to throw for more than 800 yards. It won’t matter that the undefeated Huskies are coming off their two worst performances of the season. I wouldn’t trust Alex Grinch — whose defense has given up an average of 42.6 points over the past five games — to water my plants.
Oregon State (-13.5) over COLORADO
Deion Sanders chose to bring in 86 new players. Apparently, it is still his roster’s fault for being “one-dimensional,” for losing four of its past five games, for allowing his son to be sacked seven times and knocked down 13 times in last week’s loss to UCLA. “The big picture [is] you go get new linemen, that’s the picture, and I’m going to paint it perfectly,” said the ever-humble coach. Surely, this will inspire confidence in Colorado’s final four games.
Best bets: Missouri, Penn State, Oregon State
This season: 64-68-3 (10-16-1)
2014-22 record: 1,150-1,082-25