I’m not that high on the Big 12 this season.
I’m projecting a down year for Oklahoma and a regression season for TCU. Kansas State and Texas Tech could be surprise contenders, but KSU has a rough schedule, and TTU doesn’t have the defense to win a Power Five title.
There’s only one team with the top-to-bottom roster to win the Big 12.
| 2023-24 Texas Longhorns odds |
|---|
| To win the National Championship 25/1 (FanDuel) |
| To win Big 12: +120 (PointsBet) |
| Over/Under win total: 9.5 (-135/ +115, BetMGM) |
Texas is winning the Big 12.
I’m betting heavily on Texas to win the Big 12.
The offense is loaded with talent from the inside out.
The offensive line loses only three backups, returning all five starters and 101 career FBS starts.
They were a top-30 offensive line by the metrics (Line Yards and Sack Rate) last season and could be a top-10 unit with expected improvements.
Left tackle Kelvin Banks made Second Team All-Big 12 last season as a true frosh, and right tackle Christian Jones was Third Team All-Big 12.
The Longhorns are loaded with skill-position weapons.
They return their top-three pass catchers from last year, including top option Xavier Worthy and elite tight end Ja-Tavion Sanders, and they added a high-profile transfer in Adonai Mitchell from Georgia.
This wide receiver corps is miles ahead of any other Big 12 unit.
It’ll be tough to replace Bijan Robinson, but the Longhorns will try to replicate his production by committee with four highly-touted products (Jonathan Brooks, Keilan Robinson, Jaydon Blue, Cedric Baxter Jr.).
Overall, Texas returns 10 offensive starters (losing only Robinson) and has the third-most returning offensive production in the nation, per SP+.
It’ll all come down to quarterback Quinn Ewers.
He had an inconsistent rookie season, but his talent is undeniable.
He was the top quarterback recruit in the 2021 class for a reason.
If Ewers doesn’t progress as expected, Steve Sarkisian can fall back on Arch Manning or Maalik Murphy, two blue-chip recruits.
Ultimately, whichever quarterback steps up will be well-protected and have plenty of weapons.
The defense returns only six starters.
However, First Team All-Big 12 linebacker Jaylan Ford is back to quarterback the defense.
The team returns more than 73% of passes defended in the secondary, per Collin Wilson of The Action Network.
Sarkisian picked up DT Trill Carter (Minnesota), CB Gavin Holmes (Wake Forest) and SS Jalen Catalon (Arkansas) in the portal, improving the overall depth.
The Texas defense posted top-25 marks in Success Rate, Finishing Drives and Havoc in coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski’s first year.
If the transfers hit, the rest of the unit should improve in the second year of this scheme.
Even the special teams unit will be great.
Phil Steele rated this as the second-best special teams unit in the country last year, and while they lost their punter, they replaced him in the portal with Stanford transfer Ryan Sanborn.
The Longhorns have one of college football’s most talented all-around rosters.
The schedule isn’t easy, but it wasn’t last year.
The Longhorns project for positive regression, given all five 2022 losses came by one score.
One-score games are generally random and don’t translate year-over-year, so I expect their close-game luck to flip in 2023.
Even with the demanding schedule, the Longhorns project as underdogs in only one game this year (at Alabama in Week 2) and as minimum four-point favorites in every Big 12 game.
And, again, I don’t think the rest of the conference can challenge Texas for the title.
Look at potential challengers to the favored Longhorns (+100 to win the conference).
Oklahoma is the Big 12 runner-up in the betting markets (+350) but must replace several key defensive players.
The Sooners lose three of their top-four tacklers and return only 50% of their pass breakups and tackles.
Kansas State has the third-shortest odds in the conference (+500).
But the Wildcats are due for turnover regression (+12 in net turnovers last season) and have a brutal schedule, including a road matchup with Texas and not including three of the Big 12’s weakest teams.
TCU made the National Championship game last season, but they return only three starters on offense and are due for close-game regression after winning six one-score games last year.
The Horned Frogs will start hot, but the back half of the schedule is suffocating (road games with Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma, home tilts with Texas and Baylor from week 8 on).
Texas Tech is the team I’m most bullish on outside of Texas because of the Red Raiders’ elite offense led by quarterback Tyler Shough (8-1 as a starter).
Unfortunately, they lost five of their top six tacklers in the offseason from a defense that allowed 30 points per game.
Finally, Baylor is always a threat underneath head coach Dave Aranda, but they rank 100th nationally in SP+ returning production.
I’m worried about the offensive line, which returns only one starter.
Texas has a loaded roster, and I’m lower than the market on the rest of the conference.
Add it all up, and I’m all-in on the Longhorns in the futures markets.
At the minimum, the Longhorns should make the conference championship game, as I don’t see them finishing third or worse in the regular season.
Our Texas ticket should be live for a hedge in the championship, so there’s zero downside.
The play: 2023 Big 12 Championship Winner – Texas (-120 or better)
There is some hype surrounding No. 1 overall prospect Arch Manning.
So, I’ve been asked by many whether a Manning Heisman ticket has some legs.
The path is there. If Ewers doesn’t perform for a second consecutive season, he’ll be on the hot seat, and Manning will be first in line to quarterback one of the nation’s most talented rosters.
It seems obvious. But I have two issues with this potential wager.
First, Ewers held off Manning in Spring practices, so who knows when Arch would see the field. He might not record enough starts or volume to compete with stat-sheet stuffers like Caleb Williams or Bo Nix.
Second, the hype is probably too much.
You can get Manning Heisman as high as 150-1 at BetRivers, but he’s as low as 40-1 at Bet365.
I suspect the public is rather heavy on Arch, which scares me.
The Play: Pass