The winner of the 2023-24 Premier League will be decided on the final day of the season.
All 10 matches this weekend will kick off at 11 a.m. Sunday, but the focus will be on two: Arsenal vs. Everton and Manchester City vs. West Ham United.
Arsenal comes into the weekend trailing City by two points, but the Gunners have a superior goal difference, which means they would lift the trophy if they beat Everton and Manchester City doesn’t win against the Hammers.
The odds suggest Arsenal and Man City should take care of business (Arsenal is -650 to win and City is -1050), but those numbers seem to be egregiously inflated because of the situation.
It’s a classic “must-win tax.” In fact, I would suggest there is value fading both teams in different ways.
In Arsenal’s case, I think it’s pretty straightforward.
If this match was played in February and not on the last weekend of the season, there is no way Everton would be 16/1 to win.
The Toffees boast a top-five defense in terms of expected goals and big scoring chances allowed.
They’re tough to beat, and with all the pressure on Arsenal, I wouldn’t be shocked if this match is up for grabs late into the contest.
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West Ham also can give City issues, but the Hammers are hopeless defensively.
So instead of backing the Hammers to win, I’ll take a punt on them to score first.
The plays: Everton (16/1, FanDuel) and West Ham first goal (+425)