This summer’s ambition for Arsenal has been to ensure they are not left behind after last season’s unexpected title charge.
Proof of this has been on show all summer. They went all out to sign Declan Rice for a record fee for a British player alongside Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber, while retaining key talent including Aaron Ramsdale, Bukayo Saka, William Saliba and Reiss Nelson.
The first name on that list of players signed up to new contracts meant it was a surprise when Arsenal’s interest in David Raya was revealed by The Athletic this weekend, but the north London club have been heading in this direction for some time.
Ramsdale was the first to benefit. When he arrived for £24million from Sheffield United, it was to provide competition for Bernd Leno, but he quickly usurped him in 2021-22.
Last season, Oleksandr Zinchenko elevated the team beyond what was previously expected by taking Kieran Tierney’s place at left-back and adding another gear to Arsenal’s play. In pre-season, Timber has shown the potential to do similar with his comfort across the backline.
Ramsdale, who only signed a lucrative new contract in May, has been instrumental to Arsenal’s growth, but a move for Raya is a signifier of how far Arsenal are looking to push forward.
Arsenal’s interest in Raya pre-dates Ramsdale’s arrival, as they were admirers of the goalkeeper in the summer of 2020.
The Spaniard had spent just one season with Brentford, helping them to the Championship play-off final, but importantly had six months with goalkeeping coach Inaki Cana before he moved across London to join Mikel Arteta’s coaching staff in December 2019.
His and Brentford’s trajectory have been upward since — even with the Spain international rejecting two contract offers in the past year. “I want to play in Europe and fight for a title,” Raya told The Athletic in February. When the 27-year-old first came to England on trial at Blackburn Rovers, his dream was to play in the Premier League. That dream became a reality against Arsenal on August 13, 2021, and he now has a tattoo of that date on the back of his neck.
After two seasons, Raya has 62 Premier League appearances and has become one of the league’s best goalkeepers.
His shot-stopping was key to Brentford staying up in their debut campaign and finishing ninth last season. In both, Raya has massively overperformed his expected goals on target (xGOT), preventing more than five goals than he should have based on the quality of shots he has faced.
We can look at how many goals Raya and Ramsdale have been expected to concede for a clearer picture. Using xGOT — which considers the quality of the on-target attempts a goalkeeper has faced, accounting for the placement in the goal and the angle from which the shot is taken, we can compare this to how many goals he conceded last season, forming the metric of goals prevented.
Last season was the biggest overperformance of Raya’s career (+5.7), but he underperformed his xGOT in all his previous seasons. Time is therefore needed to see whether 2022-23 represented a genuine improvement in shot-stopping and if that can be sustained.
Ramsdale has been at Arsenal for roughly the same amount of time Raya has been in the Premier League. Further down the list for goals prevented in those two seasons (13th with -0.7), he has not necessarily performed badly. He is at the average for what is expected for Premier League goalkeepers, although last season he underperformed with -1.20 goals prevented after an overperformance in his first season at Arsenal, preventing 0.49 goals.
Now for the exciting stuff: distribution.
This has been one of Raya’s trademarks since stepping up to the Premier League. Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp came to this realisation a month into the Spaniard’s first top-flight season. “The goalkeeper (Raya) could wear the No 10 shirt,” Klopp said after a 3-3 draw with Brentford in September 2021.
Those familiar with Raya were not surprised. The week before, his quick and precise distribution led to a Brentford goal away to Wolverhampton Wanderers — alerting the wider Premier League audience. Before this, Raya’s ability with his feet stood out at all of his previous clubs (Blackburn Rovers, Southport on loan, Barcelona and his youth side, Cornella) because he frequently played futsal as a child and honed his kicking further by playing footgolf at Blackburn.
As well as being precise with his kicking, his distribution was varied last season.
When passing short, he tended to go to the left side of Brentford’s defence with ground passes and clipped balls to the full/wing-back. The longer Raya went, the concentration of his kicks was larger in the left half-space where he would often find Ivan Toney, who would look to win the flick-on.
In the 2-1 win over Manchester City in November, he found the striker with 11 long balls, who laid off or flicked on eight of those. One of these was aimed at Ben Mee directly from a free kick, which the defender nodded into Toney’s path for the opener.
Before Brentford’s 1-1 draw with Aston Villa in April, they used the whole pitch to warm up and Raya was tasked with long passes into a coned area wide in the opposition half. Brentford’s opener that day came from one of these sprayed passes out wide from Raya to Bryan Mbeumo, who found Toney at the back post — Raya went straight to the coaching staff to celebrate.
In 2022-23, Raya attempted and completed the most launched passes (40+ yards) of any goalkeeper. This represented a 50.7 per cent share of his passes, with the fourth-highest accuracy (39.3 per cent) for those that went long.
Despite two high-profile mistakes against Bournemouth and Southampton during last season’s run-in, Ramsdale’s distribution has been key at Arsenal.
Like Raya, the Arsenal goalkeeper’s distribution is varied. A smaller share (35.4 per cent) of his passes were launched last season, but that would largely come down to how Arsenal tried to use Zinchenko in their build-up play.
He was still comfortable going long, particularly from goal kicks, and that variation helped Arsenal become more unpredictable.
Ramsdale would find Gabriel Jesus directly, stretch the play by aiming for Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli out wide, or Arsenal would set up specifically to play for the second ball.
That type of distribution was beneficial as recently as their 5-3 pre-season win over Barcelona when Ramsdale’s long pass to Jesus deep in the opposition half directly led to Leandro Trossard scoring the third goal.
Arsenal acted quickly to get the bulk of their summer business done before they went on tour to the U.S., but their interest in Raya is understandable. He is a better goalkeeper than the one they wanted three years ago and is coming towards the end of his time at Brentford, whether that be this or next summer.
It may appear unusual for a club to be interested in one of the league’s top goalkeepers when Ramsdale has established himself, but this would not be the first time Arsenal have bought a quality goalkeeper to compete for the No 1 spot under Arteta.
That sentiment will be particularly telling with their return to the Champions League, where the need for consistency will be paramount across the pitch. Signings have been made to drive that with outfield players, especially in defence, with at least two players able to play in each backline position. While Arsenal’s interest in Raya may need time to materialise, it signifies the desire to have that competition everywhere.
(Top photos: Getty Images)