President Biden’s envoys are pushing ahead with their effort to realign Middle East politics by brokering the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel despite significant concessions demanded by the Saudi monarchy.
Mr. Biden sent Jake Sullivan, his national security adviser, back to Saudi Arabia in recent days, his second trip there in less than three months, as U.S. officials test the ground for an agreement bringing together two historic adversaries and fundamentally reshaping the region.
No breakthrough was announced, but the fact that Mr. Sullivan returned to the kingdom so soon after his last trip in May suggests that the Biden administration sees serious prospects for an accord. Among the hurdles has been Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a mutual security pact with the United States and development of a civilian nuclear program in which the country could enrich its own uranium, both nonstarters in the past.
A summary of the meeting in a White House statement gave little indication of how much progress was made during the visit. Mr. Sullivan traveled to Jeddah, the statement said, “to discuss bilateral and regional matters, including initiatives to advance a common vision for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous, and stable Middle East region interconnected with the world.”
But U.S. officials who were in Jeddah on Thursday privately reported to colleagues that the engagements went well and expressed cautious optimism that progress could be made as diplomats on the ground continue talking.
The Biden administration has also sought to draw Saudi Arabia away from its collaboration with Russia on energy prices to increase the pressure on Moscow as it wages war in Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that Saudi leaders will convene peace talks on Aug. 5 and 6 involving representatives from Ukraine and dozens of other countries including India and Brazil, which like Saudi Arabia have not joined Western efforts to isolate Russia over its invasion. Russia, which has refused to negotiate, is not included in the meeting. The Journal said Mr. Sullivan was expected to participate, but the National Security Council would not comment on Saturday.
A Saudi plan to host such a meeting highlights a cascade of complicated and sometimes clashing dynamics. Washington wants to enlist Riyadh against the Russians, prevent it from growing closer to China, bring it together with Israel, coordinate with it against Iran, persuade it to finally put an end to the war in next-door Yemen and keep it from raising the price of gasoline at the pumps heading into an election year.
In a conversation last week with Thomas L. Friedman, the New York Times columnist, Mr. Biden described a possible Saudi-Israeli deal with many moving parts, any of which could easily trip up such a complicated negotiation but would have far-reaching implications if they were realized.
Saudi demands for normalization with Israel have been expansive. Among other things, Saudi officials want a NATO-level alliance with the United States in which an attack on one is an attack on all, long a taboo among American policymakers who do not want to be committed to coming to the defense of a nondemocratic monarchy in case of war. And they want a civilian nuclear program despite longstanding opposition by Israel and the United States, which fear a nuclear arms race in the region.
Israeli officials who recently met with American counterparts were given the impression that while the first phase of the negotiations did not include any demand for significant Israeli concessions in their conflict with the Palestinians, it is now believed that a deal would require significant progress on the issue.
Israeli officials were told that King Salman, who has ceded much control to his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, intervened in the negotiations to insist any deal include a clear Israeli move toward the Palestinians, according to an Israeli defense official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.
The Saudis, according to the Israeli impression, would not be satisfied with a promise by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to annex the West Bank, something that is not even envisioned by the current government. Instead, they would demand significant action on the ground.
It is highly doubtful whether significant concessions to the Palestinians would be approved by the current right-wing Israeli coalition, and an internal push for such a proposal could dissolve the government. Opposition leaders have vehemently refused to join any government led by Mr. Netanyahu, but questions have come up in discussions with Americans about whether the leaders might relent if it meant establishing diplomatic relations with the Saudis.
A senior Israeli official familiar with the talks said that Israel was not part of the negotiations but was relying on an American promise of full transparency and regular updates.
The American side is pushing the Saudis to ensure a permanent end to the fighting in Yemen, cementing a temporary cease-fire that took hold last year; to provide extensive new aid to Palestinian institutions in the West Bank; and to curb its newfound relationship with China, which last year played host to talks that restored diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The negotiations come at a time of friction between the United States and Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushes through legislation to curb judicial authority in defiance of Mr. Biden and hundreds of thousands of protesters in the streets.
Formal diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a major victory for Mr. Netanyahu in his long-running efforts to normalize his country’s position in a neighborhood that has been hostile for most of Israel’s 75-year history. The Abraham Accords brokered under the auspices of President Donald J. Trump’s administration in 2020 opened the door to a transformed region when the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco agreed to open formal relations with Israel.
Saudi Arabia resisted joining the accords at the time and has been the big prize ever since. The Saudis and Israelis have grown informally closer over the years out of shared fears about Iran’s role in the region, and incremental changes have demonstrated their evolving ties, such as Saudi permission for flights heading to and from Israel to cross the kingdom’s airspace.
While the Biden administration initially had not been especially optimistic about the chances of negotiating a Saudi-Israeli rapprochement, during Mr. Sullivan’s visit in May, Prince Mohammed expressed more willingness to make a deal and Mr. Biden decided to make a full-bore effort. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken made a trip to Saudi Arabia in June, followed by Mr. Sullivan’s return.