Big Ten Quarterback of the Year J.J. McCarthy (white) of Michigan leads the Wolverines against the … [+]
College Football Championship Weekend Decides 2023 College Football Playoff Spots
Saturday’s conference championship games will crown eight more champions and the final spots for the 2023 College Football Playoff will be determined. Win or lose, No. 2 Michigan is going to make the playoff and the Wolverines are a huge favorite over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. The Big 12 title game has more at stake for Texas. A win by the Longhorns over Oklahoma State has many media members believing No. 7 Texas will jump over No. 4 Florida State if the undefeated Seminoles lose, and over No. 6 Ohio State, who doesn’t play this weekend.
No. 3 Washington (13-0) secured their spot in the College Football Playoff after winning the Pac 12 championship game as an underdog 34-31 over No. 5 Oregon Friday night in Las Vegas.
The College Football Playoff Selection Show is Sunday, Dec. 3 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the New Year’s Six bowl matchups are revealed at 2:30 p.m. with leading online sportsbooks releasing the game odds shortly after.
College Football Conference Championship Games
Saturday, Dec. 2
College football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.
- Big 12: No. 18 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas (-14.5) | 12 p.m. | ABC | AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX
- Big Ten: No. 16 Iowa vs. No. 2 Michigan (-21.5) | 8 p.m. | FOX | Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
- SEC: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia (-5.5) | 4 p.m. | CBS | Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA
- ACC: No. 14 Louisville vs. No. 4 Florida State (-1.5) | 8 p.m. | ABC | Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC
- MAC: Miami, Ohio vs. Toledo (-7.5) | 12 p.m. | ESPN | Ford Field in Detroit, MI
- Mountain West: UNLV vs. Boise State (-2.5) | 3 p.m. | FOX | Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV
- AAC: SMU vs. Tulane (-3.5) | 4 p.m. | ABC | Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, LA
- Sun Belt: Appalachian State vs. Troy (-5.5) | 4 p.m. | ESPN | Veteran’s Memorial Stadium in Troy, AL
Oklahoma State vs. Texas
With 12 contestants left in the Circa Sports Friday Football Invitational and a $25,000 top prize, five picked Oklahoma State (+14.5) as one of their seven selections for the week, and four picked Texas (-14.5). So opinions vary on the most selected game on Saturday. This is the Longhorns final game in the Big 12, as Texas departs for the SEC next season. The matchups strongly support the Longhorns (11-1), who have a a top-5 run defense allowing just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush vs. FBS opponents. That’s Oklahoma State’s strength running the ball, but if the Cowboys (9-3) fall too far behind, they will have trouble with a sub-par passing attack going against a top-20 Longhorns pass defense that also has 15 interceptions this season.
Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers is hitting 70% of his passes and faces a pretty poor Cowboys pass defense. Texas has the matchups to take advantage and incentive to pile on points to impress the CFP selection committee should Florida State lose later in the day. Texas has also faced a top 10 schedule, and against six common Big 12 foes Texas is +110 yards per game and +12 points per game while Oklahoma State is +59 YPG/+5 PPG. The Longhorns are even better over their last four games, and while this betting line has risen, it’s for a reason with strength to support Texas.
Iowa vs. Michigan
Off their big rivalry win over Ohio State, the Wolverines (-21.5) are the biggest favorite in all the conference championship games with head coach Jim Harbaugh returning to the sidelines following a 3-game suspension. Iowa is being disrespected when you consider the Hawkeyes sport a top-5 defense in the country allowing just 279 yards per game and 12.3 points per game versus FBS opponents. That’s still not as strong as the Wolverines dominant defense that allows 247 yards per game and a nation-low 10.2 points per game. Against common opponents this season, Michigan went 6-0 straight up (SU) and 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) outscoring those foes by an average score of 40-8 and +177 yards per game. Iowa went 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS versus common opponents but the average score was 15-13 and -87 yards per game.
The game total of 34.5 points is the lowest ever in FBS conference championship game history with the previous low in the ACC title game in 2008 at 38.5 points.
Michigan (12-0) is playing in their third straight Big Ten title game while Iowa (10-2) returns having last played for the Big Ten championship in 2021 when Michigan mauled the Hawkeyes 42-3.
Considering Michigan is off their huge emotional and physical rivalry win over Ohio State and in the College Football Playoff regardless of this outcome, there has to be some sort of letdown on the Michigan side. Give an edge to Iowa taking back a bunch of points in the Big Ten title game.
College football playoff scenarios
Of greater signficance to more teams is winning the conference title, as most teams don’t have a shot at making the CFP even before the season starts. That includes in the Mountain West where UNLV (9-3) plays in their first-ever Mountain West conference championship game and tackles preseason favorite Boise State (7-5) at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The Rebels are a nation-best 10-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, and will try to reward bettors one more time before their first bowl game in 10 years. I wouldn’t bet on it, but UNLV and Mountain West Coach of the Year Barry Odom in his first season in Las Vegas has put together one of the stories of the season outside the more media-covered Top 25.
Fortunately, next season there will be more opportunities for deserving teams to play for a national championship as the NCAA (finally) expands to a 12 team college football playoff.
You can bet on it.
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