Southern California quarterback Caleb Williams is the favorite to win the 2023 Heisman trophy.
The 2023 college football season starts this weekend, and bettors are getting their final futures and prop bets in ahead of opening kickoff. That includes season win total bets. Seven games are scheduled for Sat., Aug. 26 before a full schedule of 45 games fuel the excitment of college football for Week 1 starting Aug. 31 through Labor Day Sept. 4.
While many fans will be focusing on the AP Top 25 teams and rankings, others will be looking for value on teams under the radar. Some of those teams are included in season win total bets.
The hottest tickets in college football
Longtime prominent sports handicapper Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports, released his college football season win totals this week. You can learn and listen more when he appears on the Vegas Stats & Information Network and ‘The Numbers Game’ program with host Gil Alexander on VSiN’s 24/7 live stream.
Last season, Dr. Bob released 11 college football season win totals and went 8-3. Ahead of the 2021 season, Dr. Bob released 11 college football season win totals and went 11-0, including 7-0 on the VSiN program. Lifetime his college football season win totals are 55-23-1. Dr. Bob is a market influencer in college football betting, and leading online sportsbooks often adjust their odds and betting lines once respected handicappers release plays to their clients or the public.
Dr. Bob bases much of his analysis and decisions on returning production using dozens of stats and categories. He utilizes metrics, or quantitative measurements on how teams change from one year to the next. Along with players and power ratings, Dr. Bob also uses his current talent and recruiting ratings along with schedule analysis and projected point spreads to come to betting conclusions. Injuries become a factor and risk, and in today’s game the transfer portal is more rampant and a bigger part of the evaluation process. Dr. Bob’s models and algorithms are updated and adjusted from decades of data.
Handicapping and betting totals has a new wrinkle this season with rules changes. The clock will continue to run following first downs, except for the final two minutes of each half.
College Football 2023 Season Win Total Best Bets
I talk and correspond with Bob Stoll during the college football season. Here are three best bets he shared with me ahead of the 2023 college football season. His picks, insight and analysis were released to clients on Monday, Aug. 21, and some of the season win numbers and odds have moved.
Conference Championships and Bowl Games do not count towards college football win totals, which are based on a 12-game schedule.
Betting lines and college football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and season win totals.
Central Michigan Over 5.5 wins (+110)
The odds are down from +135 when Dr. Bob released this play over 5.5 wins. Central Michigan averaged and allowed 5.3 yards per play last season but the Chippewas won just 4 games due to a disastrous -18 turnover margin. Dr. Bob expects Central Michigan to be better on both sides of the ball this season.
“To be outscored by just 3.4 points per game on average with over -6 points per game in turnover value is a promising sign for better results this season,” Stoll says.
Running quarterbacks Jase Bauer and Bert Emanuel took over for pocket passer Daniel Richardson down the stretch last season and combined for a ridiculous 808 yards on 94 runs (8.6 yards per run) over the final 5 games of the season. Bauer will likely be the main guy since he’s a better passer but I’m guessing Emanuel will have some packages designed for his elite running ability (517 yards on 55 runs in his 3 games). The production from the running backs should also be better without Lew Nichols, who averaged a pathetic 3.5 yards per rush in an injury plagued senior season. Backup running backs Lukes and Bailey combined for 6.0 ypr on 83 runs and the offense was better in the games that Nichols missed.
I don’t expect the pass attack to be as good as it was with Richardson, but the rushing attack should be significantly better in an overall improved attack.
Central Michigan’s defense should also be better with 9 returning starters – compared to just 4 last season. The turnovers project to be about even instead of costing the Chippewas over 6 points per game in 2022. Coach Jim McElwain was 20-13 in his first 3 seasons at Central Michigan before last year’s turnover driven 4-8 record and I expect him to have his team in the hunt for a bowl game with 6.1 projected wins.
Central Michigan football.
Buffalo Under 6.5 wins (-152)
The odds are up from -147 when Dr. Bob released this play under 6.5 wins. In the 2021 season Buffalo was outgained 5.4 yards per play to 6.7 yards per play while going 3-8 against FBS opponents – with 2 of those 3 wins being by only 1 point and the other coming against Akron, who was the 3rd worst team in the nation that year. Overall, Buffalo was 2.0 yards per play worse than average from the line of scrimmage after compensating for the weak schedule that they faced.
Last season the Bulls were just as bad, averaging just 4.9 yards per play while allowing 6.1 yards per play by their FBS opponents and once again rating at 2.0 yards per play worse than average after adjusting for schedule. However, Buffalo managed to go 6-6 in the regular season while also winning their bowl game.
“That decent record disguises how bad they were last season,” Stoll says. The Bulls were aided by a lucky +8 turnover margin, and a +11.9 plays per game differential, which was mostly random.”
A team that gets outgained by 1.2 yards per play should not have a +4.1% 3rd-down conversion differential and convert on 11 extra 4th downs than their opponents (on 11 extra attempts). In other words, there was a lot of luck that led to Buffalo outscoring their opponents for the season despite being outgained by 1.1 yards per play (including the FCS game against Holy Cross). That luck has led to value fading the Bulls to start this season.
Buffalo actually projects to be a bit better this season from the line of scrimmage (-1.7 yards per play worse than average) but they’ll likely regress significantly in turnover margin and play margin. My ratings project just 5 wins for Buffalo this season and my ratings favor them in just 4 games.
Troy Under 8.5 wins (-148)
The odds are up from -125 when Dr. Bob released this play under 8.5 wins. Last season he bet Troy over 6 wins and the Trojans went 10-2 in the regular season.
“There’s been an overreaction to last year’s record and Troy has lost key pieces on both sides of the ball,” Stoll says.
Troy is priced by the market close to the level they played last season, but the Trojans aren’t going to be as good. The offense lost their top two receivers that combined for 10.9 yards per target and RaJae’ Johnson’s 19.9 yards per catch and 12.5 yards per target are not likely to be replaced. Veteran quarterback Gunnar Watson was a combined 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average in 2021 without Johnson’s big-play ability and he’ll regress back towards his sub-par career numbers without him this season.
Troy’s defense allowed just 17.1 points per game under new coordinator Shiel Wood, who had 9 returning starters to work with. Only 6 starters return this season and one of the losses was college football’s career leading tackler. There are still some really good players on the Troy defense but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll allow just 9.7 yards per reception, as they did last season against FBS opponents.
The loss of the defensive coordinator and their top 3 tacklers will likely lead to a significantly higher yards per catch allowed and regression towards the mean in that metric is worth about 3 ½ points even though I still project Troy to be better than average in that metric.
Troy is still a solid Sun Belt team, but the loss of their big play receiver and their defensive coordinator is likely to hurt them more than the market expects, and I don’t think the market took into account the unusually low yards per catch that Troy allowed last season. It’s also unlikely that the Trojans will be 6-1 in one-score games again this season. I project 7 wins for Troy and my ratings have the Trojans as underdogs in 5 games.
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