Don’t bet on Aaron Rodgers

The Jets looked good on Hard Knocks.

It’s hard not to love the addition of Aaron Rodgers to a team filled with young talent.

All four of the Jets’ top-four picks in the 2022 NFL draft contributed, and the Jets swept the Rookie of the Year awards (Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner), just the third time in NFL history a team has done so. 

Expectations are high, and there’s lots of love for Gang Green entering 2023. 

But, as a sports gambler, I have doubts about this squad. 

I’m betting the Jets stay under their win total in the 2023 season. Let me convince you why. 

This defense is legit. 

Only five defenses in the history of Aaron Schatz’s Defense-Adjusted Yards Over Average (DVOA) metric went from bottom-five to top-five in the NFL year-over-year: the 1990 Broncos, the 1997 Broncos, the 1999 Dolphins, the 1999 Raiders, and the 2022 Jets. 

Gardner eclipsed everyone’s highest expectations at cornerback, finishing the season with the highest Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade in the NFL.

He had a league-high 14 pass breakups. 

An elite coverage cornerback is a staple of elite NFL defenses, and the Jets have that in Gardner.

Another year in Robert Saleh’s system also helped. 

Surprisingly, the Jets didn’t even overperform defensively. They had one of the league’s worst turnover differentials and were merely league-average on third down and in the red zone. 

There’s no projected regression coming for the Jets’ defense. They should be a top-five unit again. 

That said, I have major concerns about the offense – specifically, three. 

Firstly, how high is the ceiling with Rodgers? 

He’s 40 years old, and his metrics are on the decline. He was 12th in PFF’s passing grades and 21st in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, and he finished 2022 with the worst QBR of his career (39.3). 

I’m unsure if this version of Rodgers is elite. 

Secondly, the offensive line looks shaky. 

The Jets struggled with a rotating cast of characters last season, finishing 27th in PFF’s run-blocking grades and 29th in their pass-blocking grades. 

They look fine on the interior (especially behind Connor McGovern and Ajlijah Vera-Tucker), but there are two huge question marks at tackle. 

Left tackle Duane Brown allowed pressure on 7% of dropbacks last season, which ranked 29th in the NFL. He’ll be 38 this year.

Mekhi Becton has unlimited potential, but he’s played only one game in two years. His backup, Max Mitchell, was brutal last year (55.5 PFF grade). 

The offensive line looked poor in pre-season games and practices, so I’m pretty skeptical. 

If the offensive line can’t protect an aging, relatively immobile Rogers, that’s a recipe for disaster. 

Thirdly and finally, what do we think about Nathaniel Hackett?

The Rodgers-Hackett offenses in Green Bay were elite, but Hackett never called plays in those systems. Hackett called plays in Denver, and the Russell Wilson-led Broncos flopped, finishing dead last in points per game (16.9). 

I’m worried that line play and playcalling will hold this offense back. 

At the minimum, this entirely new offense may take time to build chemistry and click. 

The schedule doesn’t allow any time for Rodgers and the offense to settle in. New York’s first six weeks go: 

• Bills at home on Monday Night Football
• Cowboys in Dallas on a rest disadvantage
• Patriots at home
• Defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs at home on Sunday Night Football
• A sandwich spot against the Broncos at Mile High altitude
• Defending NFC Champion Eagles at home

If the Jets have letdown games against Bill Belichick’s defense and in that tough spot against Denver, New York could be in the AFC cellar by the Week 7 bye. 

Overall, the Jets have the fourth-toughest projected strength of schedule in the NFL by opposing DVOA. 

The Jets were beneficiaries of some incredible injury luck last year, finishing the season with the fewest adjusted games lost on defense. Their 8.6 games lost were less than half of the second-place Jaguars. 

Injuries happen in the NFL, and we can reasonably expect injury regression for the Jets – that’s just how the league works. 

Betting on the NFL?

The injury bug has already bitten the Jets, as safety Chuck Clark went down with a torn ACL in camp. 

The Jets were able to replace Clark with Adrian Amos, but future injuries could challenge their depth. The Jets are not super deep in the second unit. 

Ultimately, too many things could go wrong for the Jets.

The Jets offense could struggle, the Jets defense could see injuries, or they could drop un-droppable early-season games against Denver or New England. 

If anything happens, the season could fall off the rails quickly. 

Meanwhile, the New York media (myself included) will be unrelenting on the Jets. The expectations are too high for any slip-ups. 

I could be wrong. Rodgers could turn back into an MVP candidate behind a resurgent Becton at tackle and a bevy of offensive weapons, and the Jets’ defense could be stifling.