Several NBA players get to the start of the regular season thinking, “This is the year.” With opening night around the corner, who are the players best positioned to actually make that statement become a reality.
The Athletic asked its NBA staff for their predictions: one breakout candidate for each team. Here are their answers.
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics
Payton Pritchard: The Celtics’ top six players won’t take anyone by surprise. Rotation spots beyond that could be up for grabs, and nobody has done more than Payton Pritchard to earn a chance. Pritchard didn’t play much last season, but the Celtics opened up a role for him with their transactions this summer then further proved their belief in him by signing him to a contract extension. He won’t need to score a lot every night, but he has the shot-making ability to erupt on occasion. The organization seems excited about all the work he has put in behind the scenes. He should receive the minutes and the touches to prove what he kept saying last season — that he deserves a chance. — Jay King
Sam Hauser: The Celtics have been in need of a movement shooter who can avoid being abused on defense. Enter Hauser, who is starting to round into a two-way player who can actually advance the ball on offense and actively switch on defense. Boston depleted its depth to bring in a pair of high-end starters, betting Hauser can step up as the backup wing. He looks ready for that in the preseason, but reality hits hard once the real games tip off. But with the way he is making quick passing decisions, shooting on the move and working on defense, he should be up to the task. — Jared Weiss
Brooklyn Nets
Mikal Bridges: This might seem a little counterintuitive. Didn’t Bridges already breakout last season after he was traded to the Nets, averaging 26.1 points per game with a 54.3 effective field goal percentage? Yes, but the real test will be to see if Bridges can do it for a full season, not just late February and March, while also maintaining some semblance of his elite perimeter defense. If he does, then the Nets will have a bona fide star on their hands, whether or not he gets the attention for it. — Mike Vorkunov
New York Knicks
Quentin Grimes: This is an important season for Grimes, his third in the NBA and the first he enters as the undisputed starter. No, the Knicks offense won’t rely on him heavily. They have Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson for that. But his job is as taxing as it gets: guarding the other team’s best player every night, no matter that guy’s position, and hitting as many 3s as he can. If he drains 40 percent of his deep balls and develops into the staunch stopper many inside the organization believe he will, the Knicks have a super role player to fit inside an already successful system. — Fred Katz
Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey: This season will be Maxey’s time to shine. Joel Embiid needs help. James Harden wants out. Somebody has to be the No. 2 in Philadelphia and its lead guard. Maxey has already shown some capability to do that, averaging an efficient 20.3 points per game last season. But scoring averages in the NBA now are like crypto prices a few years ago. This season, Maxey can really show he is an All-Star-level guard, and the 76ers will have to pay him next summer. — Mike Vorkunov
Toronto Raptors
Precious Achiuwa: Scottie Barnes should see the biggest statistical leap, but tapping him feels too easy. Instead, I’ll give Achiuwa — who dealt with an early-season injury last year that derailed much of his season — my vote to break out. He would be poised for a much bigger role if the Raptors traded either Pascal Siakam or O.G. Anunoby. Still, even without that, Achiuwa boasts the type of defensive versatility to play across the positional spectrum. He cleaned up his decision-making last year, and new coach Darko Rajaković has spoken of using Achiuwa as a passing hub in the second unit. — Eric Koreen
Cleveland’s Evan Mobley is already an All-Defense level talent. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)
Central Division
Chicago Bulls
Coby White: White is entering his fifth season, has the security of a multi-year extension and projects to be the team’s starting point guard. After a bumpy first four seasons in Chicago, he is finding stability. With Lonzo Ball sidelined because of a knee injury, this is White’s chance to stake his claim as a starting NBA point guard. He’s made improvements each year. This could be the year he puts it all together. — Darnell Mayberry
Cleveland Cavaliers
Evan Mobley: Mobley was already a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year when he averaged 1.5 blocks at age 21, but there’s reason to believe he has a few more gears left to reach as he enters his third year. Tristan Thompson compared him to Anthony Davis. Georges Niang likened him to Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid. Even at his young age, Mobley has arrived as a dominant defensive force. Now if he can develop an outside shot, he’ll flirt with his first All-Star appearance in a crowded Eastern Conference. — Jason Lloyd
Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham: Cunningham won’t be a breakout candidate to the people of Detroit, but he’s set up nicely to be one for the NBA world as a whole. The 2021 No. 1 pick is back after missing all but 12 games last season. He’s played less than 82 games in his career, but in several of those games, he’s flashed All-Star potential. Assuming health is in his favor, I think Cunningham is a borderline All-Star this season and, in turn, Detroit takes a decent leap from last year’s 17-win season. — James L. Edwards III
GO DEEPER
Ausar Thompson’s greatest strength might be unlocking Cade Cunningham
Indiana Pacers
Obi Toppin: The Pacers have interesting young players spread throughout the roster, but their best bet for a breakout is Toppin. Certainly, he won’t lack for opportunity. The 25-year-old, fourth-year forward only played 15 minutes a game for the Knicks last season but has the inside track on the starting power forward spot that was such an open sore for Indy last season. Additionally, his blazing speed in transition should fit better in the Pacers’ turbo-charged pace than it did with a more half-court-oriented Knicks team, while his rim runs may feature in pick-and-rolls with ace passer Tyrese Haliburton. — John Hollinger
Milwaukee Bucks
Malik Beasley: Bucks coach Adrian Griffin started training camp saying that the Bucks were holding an open competition for the team’s fifth spot in the starting lineup, but that attempt at a poker face deteriorated, with multiple hints that Beasley will be the fifth starter. Sharing the floor with the starters could give Beasley some of the easiest 3-point looks of his career. Plus, Beasley started training camp committed to trying to defend the other team’s best player every night. If he can step it up defensively, he could fulfill the 3-and-D potential he has teased throughout his career and become an important contributor on a championship roster. — Eric Nehm
Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks
Jalen Johnson: It’s difficult to project anything with certainty with the Hawks because: 1) They’re the Hawks, and 2) this is coach Quin Snyder’s first full season. But Johnson seems like a safe bet here and the most likely Hawk to benefit from the trade of John Collins. His athleticism and ability to run the court and finish at the rim fits with Snyder’s style, and he should mix well on the court with the backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. The question will be size and defense, because the Hawks are giving up both at the four spot going from Collins to Johnson or likely starter Saddiq Bey. Either way, Johnson is a player the organization is genuinely excited about, and he’ll get far more minutes than he did in his second season under (mostly) Nate McMillan. — Jeff Schultz
Charlotte Hornets
Mark Williams: Charlotte has the second pick in the draft and an All-Star returning from injury, but if you want a true breakout candidate, look no further than Williams. The 15th pick in the 2022 draft hardly playing most of his rookie season but started 17 late-season games and enters his sophomore season as the clear starter in the middle. Certainly there’s a case production-wise: He blocked a shot every 18 minutes, rebounded 19.6 percent of missed shots and finished with a 19.8 PER after leading the G League in both categories during his assignment in Greensboro. — John Hollinger
Miami Heat
Nikola Jović: Jović only played 15 games during his rookie season, but there’s optimism around the Heat that the 20-year-old can become the next example of how strong player development is within this organization. During his time at the Las Vegas Summer League, Jović showed off the strength he’s added to his frame and a much more confident off-the-bounce attack when playing on the perimeter. Having a 6-foot-10 forward with his skill set will give Miami a different look after playing so many smaller perimeter players last season around Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Jović’s ability to consistently defend and keep up with all the different schemes Miami uses will be key. But what he adds as a pick-and-pop threat will give the Heat an offensive boost they desperately need. — William Guillory
Orlando Magic
Markelle Fultz: Yes, there’s a ton of competition for playing time in Orlando’s backcourt. But Fultz still may be the Magic’s most talented point guard despite the presence of Cole Anthony, rookie Anthony Black and Jalen Suggs. This should be the season Fultz comes his closest yet to fulfilling the potential that made him the No. 1 overall pick back in 2017. Now almost two full years removed from an ACL injury, Fultz is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. If the Magic exceed external expectations and finish the season at .500 or better, Fultz will be the person who drives that engine. — Josh Robbins
Washington Wizards
Tyus Jones: I understand any skepticism you may have about selecting Jones here, given how he’s already played eight NBA seasons and held a key role as Ja Morant’s backup in Memphis. But Jones has never started more than 23 games in a single regular season, and as Washington’s presumptive starting point guard, he’ll exceed that total easily if he remains injury free. This could be the year he sheds his “one of the best backups in the league” label and is acknowledged as a solid starter. It couldn’t happen at a better time; he’s set to become an unrestricted free agent after the season. — Josh Robbins
Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren missed all of last season due to injury. (Rob Ferguson / USA Today)
Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets
Christian Braun: As a rookie last season, Braun eventually proved instrumental in helping the Nuggets to their first NBA title. With Bruce Brown now in Indiana, Braun’s responsibility will grow within head coach Michael Malone’s rotation. The Nuggets want Braun to do the things he did last season, defend and score opportunistically. But they also want him to do it at a larger volume. This season, don’t be shocked if he doubles his output across the board. — Tony Jones
Minnesota Timberwolves
Jaden McDaniels: I view Anthony Edwards as already a cut above the breakout category, so McDaniels is the natural choice. He emerged as one of the best perimeter defenders in the league last season but did not make an All-Defense team and missed the playoffs with a broken hand. That leaves plenty of room for him to grow in his fourth season. McDaniels has been working hard on his offensive game to show he is more than just a 3-and-D guy. If he cuts down on the fouls and becomes a little more involved offensively, it should be a major season for the 23-year-old wing. — Jon Krawczynski
GO DEEPER
Naz Reid’s new life as a power forward is off to a promising start in Wolves’ preseason
Oklahoma City Thunder
Chet Holmgren: Every time Holmgren has been on an NBA floor, he has popped. Go look at his defensive highlights in summer league. Fourteen blocks in four games, about 12 of them the eye-popping variety. He debuted in the preseason against the Spurs and scored 21 points in 17 minutes variety of ways: gliding lefty layup in transition, spot-up wing 3, an easy put-back, a smooth post-up hook. He also has some off the dribble juice and a midrange game. There’s a whole lot there on both ends. He could very well be heading down the Blake Griffin and Ben Simmons path — a second-year professional who could win Rookie of the Year after missing his first season because of injury. — Anthony Slater
Portland Trail Blazers
Deandre Ayton: It might seem odd singling out a guy who averaged 18 points and 10 rebounds last season, but Ayton figures to have a much larger offensive role with Portland than he did last season in Phoenix. Ayton attempted the third most shots on the Suns last season (13.2 a game), which ranked behind Devin Booker (20.1) and Kevin Durant (16), but he figures to see an uptick in touches with Portland as he becomes one of the focal points of the offense. Coach Chauncey Billups said he considers Ayton a top-five center in the league and that he plans to expand his role, but cautioned that by saying Ayton won’t get force-fed the ball like reigning MVP Joel Embiid. Still, even with high-volume shooters like Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant, it’s a safe bet that Ayton will post career highs in scoring and shots this season as one of the more veteran and accomplished players on Portland’s young roster. — Jason Quick
Utah Jazz
Walker Kessler: Kessler built on a top-three rookie campaign by making Team USA for the FIBA World Cup. This season, the center spot is his without question. He’ll get all the minutes he can handle, and as one of the best rim protectors in basketball, he’s someone who could garner All-Defense attention or maybe even some attention for Defensive Player of the Year. — Tony Jones
Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors
Jonathan Kuminga: Pretty clear answer. The top side of the Warriors’ rotation consists of four future Hall of Famers, Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney. These are known commodities, so you must stretch into the bench to find a breakout candidate. Kuminga is the obvious choice. The 21-year-old had long stretches of high-level basketball last season but disappeared from the rotation in the playoffs. His lack of rebounding and fluctuating focus were to blame. Kuminga worked all summer and has said he will focus more on rebounding. Draymond Green is currently hurt, opening the rotation door a bit more. He’s a big, young, athletic wing on a small, unathletic, older team. They need what he provides. But they need it in sharper, focused doses. — Anthony Slater
GO DEEPER
Is Jonathan Kuminga ready to take the Year 3 leap?
LA Clippers
Terance Mann: This team is not only one of the oldest teams in the NBA, but it is one that made some of the fewest moves in the league as well. On top of that, there is a lack of blue-chip candidates AND a lack of young players with an actual pathway to get minutes. Mann is a breakout candidate because he could get his third NBA contract and earn a primary starting role for the first time. I would have liked to have selected Brandon Boston Jr. here, but he has yet to separate himself from a team that still has a surplus of wings. — Law Murray
Los Angeles Lakers
Max Christie: Christie appears to be the Lakers’ latest draft gem. The No. 35 overall in the 2022 NBA Draft flashed 3-and-D potential in 41 games as a rookie, but he took a major step in his development during summer league. He averaged 19.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.6 blocks to go along with 49.2/55.0/96.8 shooting splits over five games. Christie shined as an on-ball creator with a tighter handle, a sturdier frame (he’s gained roughly 16 pounds of muscle since he was drafted) and better foul-drawing instincts. At just 20 years old, he’s younger than several prominent rookies. He is the favorite to land the backup shooting guard spot in L.A’s rotation, and has the potential to grow into a substantial role. — Jovan Buha
Phoenix Suns
Grayson Allen: Allen has averaged double figures in scoring three of his five NBA seasons, so it’s not like this is an extreme pick. It’s just Allen gives Phoenix exactly what it needs: versatility in the backcourt, someone who can play on the ball or off and, more importantly, an edge. With so much focus on Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, Allen should have scoring and playmaking opportunities. Defensively, he’ll need to do what he does best — be a pest. — Doug Haller
Sacramento Kings
Keegan Murray: The obvious answer is Murray. Everyone in the organization from general manager Monte McNair to coach Mike Brown to franchise staple De’Aaron Fox expect him to take a second-year leap. The Iowa product played only two games in the California Classic but averaged 35 points, three rebounds, two blocks and 1.5 steals on 51.4/45/88.5 splits. Murray was then chosen to be on the 2023 USA Select Team. The Kings will likely put him in position to create for himself and others off the dribble this season. It’ll be on him to capitalize. — Hunter Patterson
Memphis’ Desmond Bane should shoulder more of the offensive load without Ja Morant. (Petre Thomas / USA Today)
Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks
Josh Green: Dallas needs its answer to this question to be Green. The fourth-year guard had the best stretches of his career last season — combining his explosive freneticism with a much improved jumper and more consistent decision-making — but he struggled to find his role after Kyrie Irving arrived. The Mavericks only have three guaranteed starters, but Green pushing to make himself a fourth one would be ideal for a team that needs secondary playmaking and defensive upside. Green’s talent and skill level isn’t in question. Finding consistency in how he uses those attributes to make an impact is what’s next, and the Mavericks hope this is the season he figures that out. — Tim Cato
Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr: It’s not often you see momentum carry from the tail end of one season to the beginning of another, but Smith might just be an exception. The strong play we saw from his final 15 games as a rookie isn’t a fluke, nor is his summer league performance. His two-way improvement is becoming less of a flash in the pan and more of the player he’s becoming. Under a new Ime Udoka-led movement in Houston, he’s being given freedom to operate with the ball in his hands and is comfortable working from the elbows. Veteran point guard Fred VanVleet has already shown to be a vital teacher and source of encouragement for Smith, constantly urging him to attack and take advantage of matchups. The table is being set for him to become the Rockets’ X-factor. — Kelly Iko
GO DEEPER
Dillon Brooks explains Rockets’ defensive mindset by getting ‘skinny’
Memphis Grizzlies
Desmond Bane: Without Ja Morant for the first 25 games of the season — an incredibly important time for a what looks like a tightly contested Western Conference — all eyes will be on Bane to shoulder the bulk of Memphis’ offense. Fortunately for the Grizzlies, Bane is well-equipped to do so. He’s gotten better in each of his first three seasons, adding usage without sacrificing efficiency. He’s already one of the best marksmen in the league, but there’s been a conscious effort to get Bane more involved in ballhandling/playmaking duties to pick up the slack sans Morant. Bane averaged just over 16 shots per game last season, a number that could realistically increase by eight to 10 without Morant on the floor. He’s my sleeper pick for an All-Star selection and a dark horse for All-NBA. He’s that good. — Kelly Iko
New Orleans Pelicans
Dyson Daniels: Daniels’ confidence gradually dipped in the waning months of his rookie season, but he’s come back in Year 2 much stronger and more capable of sticking in the Pelicans’ rotation. His defensive versatility and passing ability will be essential complementary skills next to Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, and his opportunities will only increase while Trey Murphy recovers from offseason knee surgery. If Daniels continues to grow, having him, Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado hounding opposing perimeter players on defense will allow New Orleans to pick up where it left off last season as a top-10 defense. — William Guillory
San Antonio Spurs
Devin Vassell: Knee problems limited Vassell to just 38 games last season, but headed into his fourth season armed with a hefty new contract and a (fingers crossed) clean bill of health, San Antonio’s sharpshooter is primed for a big leap. Vassell has already proven himself to be a legitimate floor spacer, and adding Victor Wembanyama to the mix forces defenders and coaching staffs to key their attention toward the 7-foot-4 phenom, opening up a plethora of space for Vassell both figuratively and literally. He’s been letting it fly in preseason recently and can also function as a secondary ball handler with three-level scoring ability. If he can stay on the court for more than 60 games, the Spurs are in for a real treat.
(Photos of Christian Braun, Josh Green and Quentin Grimes: Vincent Carchietta, Ron Chenroy, Daniel Dunn / USA Today)