On the first day of free agency during the summer, the Portland Trail Blazers signed Jerami Grant to a five-year, $160 million contract with a fifth-year player option that raised eyebrows around the league for a few different reasons.
First, Damian Lillard’s future with the franchise was murky at best at the time, and the 29-year-old Grant fits far better on a competitive roster than a rebuilding one. Second, the duration and overall dollar figure were shockingly massive even if technically below the max for a player with Grant’s experience. Putting those together, Portland general manager Joe Cronin appeared to have overcommitted to a talented player at exactly the wrong moment by complicating a possible rebuild with a player who could weaken their upcoming draft picks while also being hard to move.
Six months later, those concerns are still present, as Cronin traded Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks shortly before the season to jump-start the Blazers’ transition to a youth movement led by recent lottery picks Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. Early on, Grant is having a reasonably successful season that has combined his larger offensive role in his two recent seasons with the Detroit Pistons with better than 40 percent 3-point shooting. That said, Grant’s production has not elevated the franchise into the playoff race or even close to .500, though a series of injuries to key players loom large there, as well. Instead, he has fulfilled a fascinating niche: successful but not too successful, which is arguably the best result possible for the Blazers if maximizing their 2024 first-round pick is one of the organization’s priorities.
Even though I was surprised by Grant’s contract figures, his combination of skill and positional scarcity reduces the downside risk if he can stay healthy. Competitive teams always need forwards, and there are consistently too few to go around, so it stands to reason that front offices around the league would maintain interest even if Grant lingers on a franchise out of the postseason spotlight.
It may be a bit too early to tell, but Grant and the Blazers may end up benefiting from a truly fascinating dynamic that should play out over the next eight months.
The 2024 free-agent class is weak in a variety of areas but unusually loaded with talented forwards. Even if you think LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are unlikely to leave Los Angeles in the summer (all have player options for 2024-25), Raptors teammates Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby plus DeMar DeRozan can make a difference on competitive teams, and each should hit unrestricted free agency in July. (Anunoby has a player option for next season.) In all likelihood, Grant would be toward the bottom of that list depending on what a given suitor prioritizes, but even in a limited salary-cap environment, everyone in that group should do well financially on their next contracts, and Grant already has his signed.
Both Paul George (left) and Kawhi Leonard (right) can become free agents in the offseason. (Scott Wachter / USA Today)
Forward just happens to be a massive need for some of the franchises most flush with spending power in 2024. Even if the Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz are loaded in the frontcourt, the Philadelphia 76ers, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons and a few franchises on the periphery all will be motivated to sign that group, plus those players’ current teams and other suitors who could presumably acquire them via sign-and-trade. As such, it is inevitable that at least a few franchises will end up without a forward when the music stops, and it is likely the music will stop while some of them still have available cap space, an advantage for Portland should it look to move Grant.
Let’s take the Pacers, for example. I am sure they would love to add Siakam or the former Indiana Hoosiers product, Anunoby, but either joining the In-Season Tournament finalists is unlikely, just as it is for basically every single suitor since there are so many of them competing for a small group of players. While the Pacers could simply retain Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin instead, Grant would be a fascinating option because he can defend either forward position and hit open shots, plus he’s already signed a long-term contract they do not need to negotiate. Hilariously, that aforementioned forward-needy group also includes two teams Grant has previously played for — the 76ers and Pistons — and a third, the Oklahoma City Thunder, could be a logical trade partner, too, depending on how general manager Sam Presti wants to move forward.
Another part of the argument in favor of trading for Grant will be his contract, even if that may take a little time. After this season, Grant will functionally have a four-year, $132.4 million deal. Even at the league’s potentially modest $142 million cap estimate for next season, the 30 percent max would start at $42.6 million, so a four-year agreement with a new team would be worth a whopping $183.2 million without even adding in the larger raises and fifth year using Bird rights if they re-sign.
Would another team prefer Siakam and/or Anunoby at four years for $183 million to Grant at four years for $132 million? Absolutely possible. Would they feel that Grant’s deal is prohibitively expensive in comparison? Probably not.
My projections for a 30 percent max contract starting in 2025-26 would start a 30 percent max contract would start at $46.9 million and have a four-year figure of $201.5 million. All of a sudden, Grant’s eye-popping salary becomes a whole lot more palatable.
My big question is whether any franchises will see this shift coming and decide that moving early is better than striking out and moving late, especially since they would have Grant’s services for the 2023-24 stretch run and postseason. For example, the aforementioned Thunder could match Grant’s salary in a trade primarily with rarely played Dāvis Bertāns and massively improve their roster with someone who would not get them close to the luxury tax in 2024-25. Even if the 76ers are likely aiming higher, this proactive approach could be successful for the Pacers, Houston Rockets or even the Miami Heat depending on how much long-term money ownership is willing to take on.
It would be stunning to see arguably the most surprising contract of the 2023 offseason become desirable this quickly, but it is definitely possible if Grant stays healthy and keeps up his level of play.
One other fascinating wrinkle to consider: Since the Blazers took on significant long-term salary in their big Lillard and Jrue Holiday moves, they are well over the cap but still clear of the luxury tax for next season.
That means even theoretically offloading Grant’s entire remaining contract to a team with cap space next summer does not open up meaningful cap room unless the Blazers can somehow do the same with Malcolm Brogdon and/or Deandre Ayton. Cronin and company have much less incentive to rush a Grant trade since having capable players in the starting lineup can help the development and evaluation of Portland’s young core. The dynamic could shift even further so that Cronin negotiates from a position of strength, waiting out a better deal if other front offices treat Grant as negative value or do not offer the type of return he is looking for at the 2024 trade deadline.
While a bidding war for Grant may be the most surprising result of them all, Cronin would be wise to remember that waiting opens up risk, too, and he can mitigate that by moving early and avoiding the possibility of a Grant injury or significantly worse play.
It will be a truly fascinating situation to watch, and it is distinctly possible that an eventual Grant trade stuns the league as much or even more than his five-year, $160 million contract did last summer.
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(Top photo of DeMar DeRozan and Jerami Grant: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)