The rankings are for mixed leagues, standard 5×5 roto. This format is obsolete for many, who play points leagues or head-to-head, or DFS or sim games. I try to note where format makes a difference. But it’s called “standard” for a reason and we have to start somewhere.
The boldface price at the end of each player comment is what I would pay for him in a mono league auction (AL-only or NL-only). They are not projections of roto dollar values. Rather they are bets, calculated with an eye toward constructing a winning team in this format. You will note that my prices are usually (but not always) lowball. I find that sticking to my guns on the low end enables me to pay the extra bucks for the players I really want.
You should not use these prices in mixed league auctions. If you do, you will lose out on great players because they are worth more in mixed leagues. At the same time, you will pay way too much for mediocrity, which is the cardinal sin in mixed leagues.
In a 15-team mixed league, much less a 12-team or 10-team league, there is no getting around the fact that good players will be available for one dollar, or as reserves or free agents. The pool of good players exceeds the number of roster slots. Mediocrity is essentially free. This destroys a linear pricing structure.
Some people like to go into a mixed league auction with projected roto earnings as a guide. That’s fine, as long as you know that in reality you can pay $60 for Ronald Acuña and $60 for Gerrit Cole and not suffer in the end game, as long as you save enough money to top a $1 or $3 bid in the endgame for mediocrities you think will step up. My general aim is to have about $27 left for my final nine players.
The designations Reserve A and B are those not worth bidding on who have a chance to play sooner or later, more or less. By opening day, several of them will be worth auction bids. PFA means Possible Free Agent, or not worth a roster slot now but worth an eye.
No doubt I have missed some prospects who will contribute in 2024, but I tried to note all those reasonably close to 2024 action. Feel free to ask about others, or to comment in general. If I’m wrong, please tell me so we all know better before draft day.
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) That didn’t take long, to the surprise of no one. No one but Ronald Acuña Jr. is clearly a better first round pick. The Royals were a much better hitting team in the second half. Production shouldn’t be an issue even with no growth, and it is wise to expect some growth. Pay up. $44
Trea Turner (PHI) Never take a player in the first three months of a big contract with a new team.
Call me extreme, I don’t care, but anyone who steals 30-for-30 should be stealing 60. Be that as it may, this is a good year to go the extra buck on Turner. He’s at a hitting peak, as shown by his second half that continued through the postseason. You know his production will be there, and you can bank on the 30 SBs while hoping he sees the sense in cutting loose. $34
Corey Seager (TEX) Arguably the best hitter in the game, with his case largely based on recency bias, or front-running, as we used to call it. Durability concerns, but he has played two full seasons, so it can be done. Safer to bid for 130 games, which definitely knocks off a few bucks in AL leagues. No speed, of course, but ultra-secure production with high-average power. Seager was supposed to be among the top beneficiaries of the new shift rules and indeed he was. I would say .300 is his BA over/under for the foreseeable future. You won’t cry if he’s your top bat in a mixed league, and a dynamite No. 2. $31
Francisco Lindor (NYM) Stole 31 bases with his best sprint speed since 2018, which, given his base-running skill, means Lindor can steal even more bases with less speed — just in case you had him prudently penciled in for 23. If his HRs regress to 26, you’ll be happy enough, and regression for his BA means .275. $30
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) He’ll be good even with 33.7% Ks, but I don’t see him immediately improving and, therefore, I can’t bet him as great. Note that Cruz was dropped to 7-8 in the lineup, and that’s where .235/.300/.410 belongs. I try to avoid on-the-come bets in the second round. $27
Oneil Cruz (PIT) His coincidence with Elly De La Cruz is amazing, even for baseball. I mean, a unique package of size and talents appears, and the next year here comes a guy just like him with almost the same name, only three years younger and a switch-hitter. I hope we get to see them battle it out for 15 years. Elly’s hype train has roared way past Oneil’s 2023 ADP of 65, while Oneil has dropped to 86 this year for no reason other than missing time. Which is a reason to take Oneil. $26
CJ Abrams (WAS) Upped his SB pace in the second half to the 60 level. I consider this his baseline because 1) he established himself in the majors in his age 22 season, so the days of Abrams being overmatched are over, and 2) he has an obvious path to better hitting, namely increased use of the opposite field. A low walk rate deprives him of some SB opportunities, sure, but not enough to stop him from stealing 75 if he puts his mind to it.
I’m more skeptical of his power, although that too could stabilize or even increase with experience. I watched Abrams a lot, and it seemed like he ran into more than a fair share of meatballs. My HR over/under is 12. $26, one less in OBP leagues.
Bo Bichette (TOR) As predicted, the SBs did not come back, and his 42nd% sprint speed urges us not to be stubborn. His 69/73 production in 135 games is testimony to the offensive inefficiency of the Blue Jays, but then that will probably turn around some. Good power and a big BA asset with his many hits. $22, one less in OBP leagues.
Xander Bogaerts (SD) Strong finish should not obscure the new, out-of-Fenway reality: he’s a minor star. Nice to see him running as he always could have, and his paltry 58 RBIs were probably a fluke, so he’s a building block hitter. But not foundational. $21
Dansby Swanson (CHC) Could steal many more bases but instead stole half as many as in 2022. He mostly beat the “first year of a big contract with a new team” jinx, and he’s likely enough to finish the job with a return to .265 with 26/12 and 85/85. $20
Anthony Volpe (NYY) The 27.8% Ks need work, yes, but are not that bad for a 22-year-old rookie. Plenty of speed that he used well as a rookie, and great shortstop defense. With the bat, he showed that he can use the short porch and, therefore, 21 home runs are a platform. Volpe will have to earn a higher slot in the lineup and may not get one even if he does, but there is plenty of growth possible, explosive growth at that, from a solid floor. It may not happen this year, or even next, but it’s reasonable to expect a little better. $19
J.P. Crawford (SEA) Led the AL in walks with 94 (sixth overall in MLB). Clearly he traded some contact for power and clearly it paid off, without hurting his BA. No reason why it should, since he basically stopped swinging at bad pitches and doesn’t miss the pitches he swings at. Huge surge in his HR/FB rate, but 12.3% is still pretty low. Far from regressing, he may get better at his new approach. No speed, and it’s a tough place to hit, but he should bat leadoff all year. A target in AL leagues. $16, two more in OBP leagues — ranks ahead of Volpe in points leagues, about even with Swanson.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) Power outage driven by fewer fly balls and a HR/FB rate cut in half. Hard hits held up but were not outstanding. Actually improved his O-zone swings and his swinging strikes, though both are still too high. He ran more but not well — 13 SBs, caught nine times — and normally I would say count on five bags and hope, but Peña has 95th% sprint speed and at least, in theory, the sky’s the limit. At age 26, still in growth mode. $15
Ezequiel Tovar (COL) Stellar defense but swings at everything and misses a great deal. He doesn’t turn 23 until August. Plenty of time and plenty of raw talent to work with, but let us be prudent in our immediate expectations. $15, two less in OBP leagues.
Vaughn Grissom (BOS) Clearly his bat is major-league ready, indeed he’s got a reasonable shot at .300. Power is more questionable, but Fenway Park should help him get to 20. Don’t bank on many SBs, though, as his speed is average at best and Grissom has shown neither the inclination nor the aptitude for steals. Roto value is therefore highly dependent on where he bats in the order. I’ll price him based on batting sixth and possibly adjust from there. $15, one less in OBP leagues — acceptable MI in mixed.
Carlos Correa (MIN) [reverb voiceover] “Never take a player in the first year of a big contract with a new team.” Received wisdom, although we reserve the right to make exceptions. And the second year is another story. The apparently chronic plantar fasciitis renders Correa almost undraftable in AL leagues, where it is essential to pile up Plate Appearances. As long as he’s healthy to start, in mixed leagues he can help as your MI if you have your speed covered. Even after the bad year, he’s a lifetime .272 hitter and .468 slugger, in a prominent lineup slot. But be thinking about his replacement. $13
Willy Adames (MIL) Doesn’t seem to care about the strikeouts that keep his BA from respectability. The Brewers are supposed to be big maximizers, but this guy and his .717 OPS hit third in the order most often, and Adames never saw a PA below the sixth slot — he should never see a PA above the sixth slot. He’s a good player given the home runs and his defense, but just a few SBs, and we’re likely to see worse production even if his BA bounces back some. In mixed leagues, a decent MI and no more. $12
Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) Vastly improved hitter, which continued to manifest in the postseason. Please don’t tell me the postseason doesn’t matter, because an extra 17 games against mostly superior pitching is a validator, and here I would even say it’s definitive, as in Perdomo has defined himself. And, of course, at age 24, he can keep redefining himself upward. I don’t expect major power or speed but I expect some of both, and a good chance to hit a surprise .280, which gets his OBP over .375, which is good enough to bat at the top of the lineup, against righties anyway. Nice fallback MI in mixed leagues and a target in NL leagues. $12
Jackson Holliday (BAL) Instant stardom is not bettable here, it almost never is. Holliday may be a year away, or half a year. That said, instant stardom is certainly possible, and with five-cat potential, the chance of a complete bust is slim. See what the O’s do — if they clear a spot for him, it’s safe to bid Holliday as an average hitter. Right now he’s a top Reserve A.
Javier Baez (DET) Just turned 31 — seems so long ago that Baez was a fantasy first rounder. Now he belongs around the 23rd round. I guess you have to bid something on the accumulation, if you can call it that — 9/12 with 58/59 production. The thing is, all it would take to get Baez back to where he was is to lay off about two bad pitches per game. Seems too much to ask. What a waste. $9
Zach Neto (LAA) Looked like he was coming on — got his OPS up to .769 in the middle of June, but 30.7% Ks in the second half drove him down to .689 at the end. Just turned 23. Good glove. Has pop, including to the opposite field, which is always a good sign. Speed is just a bit above average but probably good for 10 SBs. Has the shortstop job but if the Ks don’t come down, they may yet send him down. $9
Masyn Winn (STL) His nicknames are “Blaze” and “Energizer Bunny,” says baseball-reference.com. These handles did not foretell Winn’s ultra-passive approach, an approach that did him no favors. Didn’t strike out much (19% with 8% Sw/Str), uses the opposite field, and played 2023 at age 21. It may take a while, and no reason to bid him up, but Winn should have some value in NL leagues and retains his potential for stardom. $9
Jordan Lawlar (ARI) The plan appears to be… Reno. I though he would contribute last year, and nothing has changed my mind after 36 SBs in the minors and half his hits for extra bases. The latter is almost always a sign — it’s old-school Hard Hite rate. I therefore expect Lawlar to tear up Triple-A and force a quick call-up. I will seriously consider taking him as a starting player in a mixed league, and look for backup to cover the early season. I can’t pay money for him in an NL league without job confirmation, but I can make him my absolute first reserve pick. Reserve A
Caleb Durbin (NYY) Looks ready to contribute based on an excellent 8.8% Ks in 191 minor league games, with 10% walks and an improving BA as he rises. Oh yeah, and 79 stolen bases. Durbin will probably end up at second base but can also play short and third. Spring watch on him — see what moves the Yankees make. Reserve A
Colson Montgomery (CWS) With a sweet, sweet lefty swing, it’s easy to see the Corey Seager comps. Which is not to expect instant stardom as he turns 22 this month and strikes out a lot. No speed to speak of, but 15% walks in the minors mean he should post a respectable OBP even if he’s not quite ready. Only Paul DeJong stands in his way. Reserve A, but that will change if Montgomery beats out DeJong.
Orlando Arcia (ATL) Mighty handy to have an MLB-average hitter who plays shortstop hanging around, just in case your prospect isn’t ready. Arcia’s crystal ball shows less playing time — shortstop is about the only position where the Braves can use an upgrade, so why wouldn’t they? Then Arcia becomes a mighty good bench player. Roto-limited, of course. $8 won’t get him but OK.
Paul DeJong (CWS) The Ks kill him but he can still hit a meatball out of the park and play a good shortstop. Gets a new start in a better place to hit, but faces a challenge in prospect Colson Montgomery. $8
Jon Berti (MIA) Qualifies at 3B, and possibly OF (19 games) and 2B (15). Speed is still elite — figure he’ll play less but steal more. A good hole-filler in deeper mixed leagues if you need speed, and he’s often available. $7
Brayan Rocchio (CLE) A pro since 2018, he made it to the majors in his age 22 season. He has progressed nicely in his little way, and appears to be the starting shortstop going in. That could, of course, change. For us, doubles power and a few steals, and if he can regain the contact he showed in the minors he will kick in a respectable BA/OBP. If the Tribe of Guardians don’t pick up a shortstop, Rocchio is a pretty good cheap MI in AL leagues and maybe a decent hole-filler in mixed. $7
Tim Anderson (FA) In real baseball, he was the worst qualifying player. His OWAR of -23.5 assed out Javier Baez, and his Defensive Runs Saved were third-worst after Kyle Schwarber and Esteury Ruiz. That’s heavy gravity pulling any team down — batting leadoff and playing shortstop — and that’s with him missing his usual 40 games.
Gotta admit: the statheads finally had their revenge. The lifetime xBA of this lifetime .283 hitter is .245. They had been shouting “regression” for five years, and for four of them Anderson hit .318. Those levels of wrong strongly suggest a flaw in xBA as currently measured.
Intuitively, it seems that there is/was some attribute that Anderson possesses — A+ eyesight would be a guess — that deserted him in 2023. Without this attribute, Anderson not only collapsed to .250, he hit but one measly home run and slugged .303.
For us, there is a whole lot to lose at shortstop in 2024. Tim Anderson is an afterthought, and were I forced to take him as my MI, I would be sure to keep looking. And in mono leagues, you don’t want to be looking for MI free agents. They are a gruesome bunch. $6
Amed Rosario (FA) Another of my fabulous flops of 2023. Here is a guy, thought I, who is well-positioned to do what Nico Hoerner actually did. Rosario has elite sprint speed, he’d be at the top of the lineup of a low-scoring team with good pitching, not a big walker but even now a lifetime .272 hitter — a sweet confluence for the new rules to fuel.
But Rosario never fired, lost his job, and indeed is seeking employment as I write. His hitting was a disappointment, but his fielding at shortstop was a disaster. The Dodgers played him mostly at second base, where he was good in parts of 36 games. That may be his ticket back into a lineup. If not, surely Rosario is a very good bench player. $6
Ezequiel Durán (TEX) Growth season at age 24, but he’s not going to beat out Evan Carter or Josh Jung. The question is whether the Rangers keep him around for depth or trade him. He plays all over (also qualifies at 3B and OF) but not a defensive asset. Tough call, but figure he gets 350 PAs somehow, more with a trade. $6
Marco Luciano (SF) Appears to be the shortstop, which appears to be, let’s just say, premature at age 22. He’s got some pop and takes his walks but hit .223 in the minors, and that won’t play. The Giants like his defense, but some prospect watchers have doubts. It matters that the Giants have an extreme ground-ball staff. $5 won’t kill you but could easily be wasted, and I’m not sure I’d pay it.
Gabriel Arias (CLE) Has talent, but at this point he’s useless when swinging outside the fat part of the strike zone, and he does that a lot. Check league rules, as Arias may qualify at several other positions, and very probably will in time, so limited AL-league value is possible. Plays at age 24. $4
Jorge Mateo (BAL) Lost his job the usual way, by not hitting. The question now is will another team give him another chance. Top quality defense and speed, and just because the Orioles can do better doesn’t mean there are 29 teams that can say the same, which makes Mateo a pretty good speed speculation. $4
Liover Peguero (PIT) Bid is tentative pending his fielding in March at second base, where he will play and also qualifies. Blazing speed and surprising punch, but serious strike zone woes are likely to defeat his quest for MLB-average performance. And his fielding was bad. The current facts say he’s not ready (age 23), but may play anyway. $4
Ernie Clement (TOR) Got it — 52 PAs is a small sample, but, you know, .380. And just four strikeouts. And he hit .348 for Buffalo, with 11/12 in 72 games. Turns 28 in March, so no hot prospect, but something has clicked and Clement is likely to stick, though perhaps not in Toronto. $3
Tucupita Marcano (SD) Go ahead and laugh at me, but I think he has some star potential. More likely he’s a pretty good player in a minor five-cat way. Just 24 with six years in pro ball — I like that. Bats left, plays all over (including shortstop), just 16% Ks in 220 PAs for the Pirates. Good chance to make the Pads. $3
Joey Wendle (NYM) Bad year but he’s better than this, and he may be better against righties than Brett Baty 2024. I’m sure the Mets are hoping he’s not, and would like to see 300 or so PAs for Wendle, filling in here and there. $3
Miguel Rojas (LAD) We know in our hearts that the Dodgers don’t want to give him another 423 PAs. Most of these $3 players will go for a buck — there are only so many roster slots to be filled — and Rojas is a pretty good one, and he could get lucky again, or even get traded into a regular job.
Kiké Hernández (FA) Lifetime .801 OPS against lefties but down to .642 last year. I guess a comeback is possible at age 32, but it looks more like handwriting on the wall. Qualifies at 2B and OF. $2
Osleivis Basabe (TB) Cool name for a cool little player. Little in the power sense but good speed and has hit .311 in the minors. Plays all over. Almost no chance to be a regular on the Rays, but a sneaky good $1 player in AL leagues.
David Fletcher (ATL) Sole remaining hope is that he muscles up and pulls an Adam Frazier. Not bettable. $1
David Hamilton (BOS) A live chance to steal 50+ bases if he plays. He has managed a .347 OBP in the minors, but that’s not terribly likely to translate since major league pitchers got him out with strikes.
Pay no attention to disparaging remarks about his 26% HH rate. He doesn’t need better to hit for average. He needs to drastically cut his 26% strikeouts, and hit the ball on the ground. His minor league GB rate is well under 40%, and that’s not good. Presumably they are working on these things, but he’s now 26. Reserve B
José Tena (CLE) Could challenge Brayan Rocchio for the shortstop gig. Overmatched in the majors at age 22, but five years in the minors of .284 with 14/17 per 150 games. And last time I looked, he had 7 SBs in 22 games in the Dominican Winter League. Hmm… Reserve B
Matt Shaw (CHC) And still more high-average/power/speed potential at shortstop. Let’s not take it for granted, the game of baseball has never seen anything like this — not that I can remember, and not just shortstop either. A partial explanation would be the backlog caused by 2020 catching up. Whatever the reason, the implication for us is that 2024 will mark a greater “changing of the guard” than a normal year’s shuffles. Which argues for mucho late speculation, which in turn argues for a conservative foundation.
Shaw has no place to play on the Cubs, but these things change. A polished hitter in college, just 38 games in the minors showed he’s ready now. Reserve B
Jackson Merrill (SD) Projects more as a pure hitter than a category colossus, but then he has the size and he hasn’t turned 21 yet, so his power could develop. He’s not far from the majors — probably one injury away — and, with just 12% Ks in the minors last year, should deliver a minor five cats from the start. Reserve B
Luisangel Acuña (NYM) Did not hit at Binghamton after the trade, but his contact held up and he’s not a wild swinger with 11% walks. In his age 22 season, should get at least a look this year. An absolute must if you need speed and he’s on the waiver wire, but several similar guys are closer to the bigs at this time. Reserve B
Kyren Paris (LAA) Grade-A speed, 15.4% walks in the minors, but also 30% Ks and he hasn’t played Triple-A yet. Just 22 years old, but pretty sure to get at least another cup of coffee. Worth an eye as Paris could come fast. Reserve B
Brooks Lee (MIN) Slight retrenchment, but then he was actually advancing to the high minors at age 21. Does not project as a monster category player, but more a BA guy with 15/10 at this point. One Carlos Correa injury away. I guess he’s a Reserve B if you need what he’s got.
Jose Barrero (CIN) Power/speed of 19/20 in 80 games for Louisville, but so far he just flails in the majors. Probably has some trade value and the Reds don’t need him. Could be worth a small bid if so, but right now he’s a borderline Reserve B.
Darell Hernaiz (OAK) Age 22 season with four years as a pro. He’s hit .291 without much power, but some think it’s coming. Stolen bases took a hit at the higher levels (13 in 131 games), but just 13% Ks suggest that Hernaiz can hit for average in the majors as soon as this year. Spring watch — some chance to win the job and rate a high single-digit bid. PFA
Casey Schmitt (SF) He’ll probably play third base if he plays. It would help the team more if Schmitt can play shortstop, but that’s an open question. His power erupted in 2022 but reverted last year, and he was a wild swinger in 90 games for the Giants. Probably not ready, but then Marco Luciano probably isn’t either. PFA
Marcelo Mayer (BOS) Injury-related big step back in Double-A at age 20 — hardly a disgrace but suggesting that Mayer is some ways away. Speed grade of 40 on the 20-80 scale, yet he is 33-for-39 stealing as a pro, suggesting a high baseball IQ. PFA
Jonathan Ornelas (TEX) Not much star potential, but he should get the call if there’s an injury in the Texas infield, and he can do a little of everything. PFA
Adalberto Mondesí (BOS) Here’s an Iron Law: anyone who has a realistic chance to lead the major leagues in stolen bases is worth at least a buck. But then Mondesi no longer has that realistic chance, indeed he has no chance at all until he makes it back to the field. And then he would have to be a full-time player, an increasingly dubious proposition. Right now I’d consider him very late on a 50-man roster. PFA
Tristan Gray (TB) Played one game at shortstop and one game at first base — check your league rules. Gray has hit 63 home runs for Durham in the past two seasons, but his strikeout problem is probably insurmountable. PFA
Braden Shewmake (CWS) Has a chance to be the shortstop, though not right away. He was the Braves’ No. 1 pick in 2019 out of Texas A&M. Supposed to be a high-average, modest power/speed guy, but hasn’t made enough contact in the minors. Worth an eye in AL leagues. PFA
Tyler Wade (SD) I thought he was a major league bench player, but the A’s let him go and he signed with the Pads as presumed organizational depth. A little speed if he gets a chance. PFA
Kevin Smith (NYY) Pretty much showed that he’s not going to beat his strikeout problem. Played 17 games at third base. PFA
Brandon Crawford (FA) Fine career — belongs in the Giants’ hall of fame — but the tank is empty. PFA
Jeter Downs (NYY) Clearly out of his depth — in Triple-A. PFA
(Top photo of Bobby Witt Jr.: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)