If you’re just joining us, where have you been? Browns beat writer Zac Jackson and Chicago columnist Jon Greenberg have been picking football games all season. Sometimes they’re right, other times they’re just having fun out there.
GREENBERG: It figures. After reading about the wave of unders the previous week, the two totals I take to go over go under. while three of the four unders went over. Thank the good Lord for Penn State-Ohio State, your bet of the century.
In my defense, though, Raiders-Bears needed a garbage time score to go over 37.5. And Browns-Colts only eclipsed its total of 40 by 37 points. So you never know. That’s why it’s called gambling. Etc. and so on.
In any event, I went 1-5-1 last week to put my record at 21-24-1, while you went 2-4 (also winning your survivor pick of Seattle) and your record is now 23-23.
Did you learn anything last week?
JACKSON: I won my college pick of the year and spent the rest of the weekend victory lapping. You should have played accordingly as my picks crashed back to earth!
Tough game, this is. If you’re really going to do this and stay afloat, you always have to be learning something. Or trying to learn. Just when you think you’ve figured some things out and are on a path to a winning season, you look up and realize it’s the week you have to take Brandon Staley in your survivor pool. And then you don’t sleep a wink.
GREENBERG: Taking the Chargers is probably wise. I’m not sure Bears rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent has ever been to Los Angeles, let alone played against Khalil Mack there. The 8-1/2 point spread is worth questioning, though. Brandon Staley’s bunch is 2-4 and lost those four games by a total of 12 points and they’re 1-4-1 against the spread. They’re America’s Frustrating NFL Team. The Bears are pretty lousy at 2-5, but also maybe a little feisty. After dinking and dunking for most of Sunday’s win over the Raiders, I’m guessing Bagent will get to open it up a little. He has a quick release, so he might be able to surprise the Chargers defense before Mack decapitates him. More importantly, the Bears’ defense has been playing better lately with contract-hungry cornerback Jaylon Johnson snagging two picks last week, giving him a career total of three. It’s a Sunday nighter, so if the line is still there after you sweep the afternoon slate, take the Bears +8.5.
How about the Falcons -3 at Tennessee? On Wednesday a rumor popped up that rookie QB Will Levis will start Sunday. Titans coach Mike Vrabel then tried to throw water on it, noting that he could go with a rotation of Levis and Malik Willis.
Vrabel: “I never said that Will (Levis) will be the starter. Both (Levis and Malik Willis) will play if Ryan can’t.”
So that’s interesting.
— Joe Rexrode (@joerexrode) October 25, 2023
Our colleague Jeff Schultz noted that the Falcons are already 2-0 against rookie QBs this season. I’d bet on that streak to continue. The Titans are a mess. Gimme Falcons -3 on the road.
And he will be the third to start against the Falcons, who are 2-0 vs. CJ Stroud and Bryce Young. https://t.co/FRlwtqF08q
— Jeff Schultz (@JeffSchultzATL) October 25, 2023
I probably wouldn’t take the Steelers +2.5 at home against Jacksonville, but I do find it interesting that the Steelers are 4-2 and have been underdogs in all four home games. They’re 2-1 in those games, beating Cleveland and Baltimore. I’m also monitoring Lions -8.5 at home against the Raiders. Recency bias has me favoring the big line because I watched the Raiders last week. Yikes.
There are a lot of other intriguing lines this week. What do you like?
JACKSON: Let’s start with the Indiana Hoosiers +32.5. I should just call the hotline instead, I know, but four-and-a-half touchdowns against this pathetic Penn State offense? Sign me up. I know James Franklin is known for running it up on lesser opponents and then completely no-showing against the best of the best, but I’m willing to back one of the worst of the worst here. This could be 31-0 — and I’d love it.
Let’s go home and go with our alma mater THE Ohio University -7 vs. its bitter rival, Miami (Ohio). I’m a little concerned about the Bobcats’ offense, but the defense has been good and Miami lost quarterback Brett Gabbert to a season-ending injury last week. This has always been a one game season of sorts for the good guys when it comes to winning the MAC East — and winning my future from the first article — and I look for an inspired Ohio effort to result in something like a 27-17 win.
Cal is 121st in defensive success rate. USC is 69th in defensive success rate because it played the likes of San Jose State, Nevada and Stanford early in the season. USC as a whole is questionable due to bruised ego, but I see points. USC-Cal over 66.5. I might take over 88.
I lean toward Colorado +17 and Florida +14.5, but I’ll stop on three college picks.
Two NFL picks: Buffalo-Tampa Bay over 43 in a rare Thursday night over as that banged-up Bills defense is reeling; Seattle -3.5 vs. the Browns, who stole one last week and are playing P.J. Walker at quarterback again this week. I’m with your thinking on the charmed-life Steelers, but I also will pass. Part of me thinks Jacksonville is getting really good.
My NFL survivor pick, as mentioned above, is the Chargers. Let’s see how long I can survive. Maybe longer than Staley as head coach?
Anything else to debate?
GREENBERG: I don’t remember the Bobcats having a home game during Halloween in my days there, though to be honest, my memories of Halloween weekend are hazy at best. (I just checked and they did not and were nice enough to have a bye week my senior year.) I wonder how that affects the home team’s focus? Do they make the team sleep at the stadium to avoid temptation on Friday night? I’ll pass on this but will take the USC-Cal over.
I can’t imagine there are too many interesting first-round HS playoff matchups in Ohio. I’ll be in Ohio next Friday night, though, so maybe I’ll catch a game at Harding Stadium or in Martins Ferry or wherever.
JACKSON: It’s already Halloween? Weeknight MAC football is right around the corner. See you there!
(Top photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)