It’s Thanksgiving and you need Jon Greenberg’s and Zac Jackson’s picks like you need stuffing and a stiff drink. Like your parents, they live to serve you.
JACKSON (2-1 last week, 34-30 overall): Thursday. You overdose on heavy food and football. What’s not to like?
Also, how easy is it to just moneyline-parlay the Lions, Cowboys and 49ers for around -110? No gravy sweats there, right?
GREENBERG (5-1 last week, 33-35-1 overall): I feel like this week can really take a toll on a man. Between the eating, the forced time with family and the barrage of games to bet on, Thanksgiving Week isn’t for the meek. Good thing we’re of hearty eastern Ohio stock.
I have a ton of games on my card, but I think we should start with the Thanksgiving ones, because we’re providing a public service here.
I like the Packers +7.5 at Detroit as my amuse-bouche. Green Bay has won two of three and really it should be three in a row. Detroit got lucky last week that it fell behind against a Matt Eberflus-coached team. Green Bay keeps it close and maybe pulls out a win.
Should I tempt fate and bet the Cowboys big again after hitting that pick last week against Carolina? I also correctly guessed that Washington shouldn’t have been a huge favorite against Tommy DeVito’s Giants. Money is pouring in on Dallas because the spread jumped up to 12.5 and I can’t bring myself to bet either side. Maybe I’ll change my mind once the first (or fifth) beer kicks in Thursday.
As for the nightcap, let’s go under 43 for the Niners at the Seahawks. The Niners have gone under that number in four of their five road games this year. Geno Smith should play, but I’ll pray for a lower-scoring game as I drift into turkey- and whiskey-induced slumber.
Any thoughts on these games or the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State?
JACKSON: I think all three Thanksgiving favorites win outright. If I was making just one pick, I’d be with you on Niners-Hawks under 43. But what fun is making just one pick?
I like Washington (+12.5) to get a backdoor cover. I like the George Kittle anytime TD (+115). I have no thoughts on the Egg Bowl; I can’t believe I still have to talk to my children about the time Elijah Moore acted like he was peeing on the field.
Let’s get to Ohio State-Michigan. My college pick of the year was Ohio State-Penn State under. I went back to under on Michigan-Penn State.
Finally, we have a true Big Ten heavyweight fight. And I think I’m on the under (46) again.
GREENBERG: I have a foundational gambling memory that has to do with Michigan-Ohio State. It’s 1995. I’m 17 years old. I put all the money I had, $11 ($10 plus the up-front 10 percent juice on bets in the greater Steubenville area), on a two-team parlay: Florida over Florida State (Danny Wuerffel over Danny Kanell) by an indeterminate line and Michigan +9 at home against the vaunted, unbeaten Buckeyes led by Eddie George, Terry Glenn, Mike Vrabel, Luke Fickell, uh, Bobby Hoying, etc. and so on. Ohio State was ranked No. 2 in the country in the days where the Rose Bowl was really the grand-daddy of ’em all.
I was a Michigan fan in Ohio State country. I actually watched the games by myself because I was so nervous about my big-money bet. And man, was I rewarded. Tim Biakabutuka rushed for 313 yards and Michigan won outright, 31-23. I imagine a lot of bigger gamblers won a lot more money on the Wolverines that day. (The year before, I was actually at the game, a Michigan loss in Columbus. I wore a Michigan hat and jersey under a Big Red soccer jacket and people yelled that Big Red sucked too. That hurt. Though my cousin and I did get on the field after the students rushed it, which was cool.)
All of this is to say, in my old age, I’m reversing course. I like the Buckeyes +3.5 and I love the under 46 as well. I’ll probably go small on the points and big on the under. J.J. McCarthy vs. Kyle McCord feels like a throwback to the days of Scott Dreisbach vs. Joe Germaine.
And speaking of unders, how about Iowa-Nebraska? The total is 26.5. Too high? Just kidding. I’ll go under 26.5.
Aside from the Egg Bowl, who do you like in the rivalry games across college football? We’ve got the Civil War, the Apple Cup, the Zac Jackson Classic (Ohio-Akron)?
JACKSON: There I was Tuesday, just minding my own business at my son’s seventh-grade basketball scrimmage (we covered the -2.5) when a man sitting a few rows in front of me turned to his friend and asked if he could believe that the Iowa total was twenty-six and a freaking half.
Yes, Dude. I believe it. According to Covers.com, nine Iowa games have had a total of 35 or lower, and all nine have gone under. Feed me another! Under 26.5.
I think Oregon State can keep it close and cover the 13.5. I think you must take advantage of your last chance to bet against this Kent State team and lay the 19.5 with Northern Illinois. Outside of Ann Arbor, the rivalry game that caught my eye was Utah -22.5. And under 52. I think the Utes win 35-3. Deion badly needs the portal (and he’ll dominate once it opens).
I see the Chargers are getting 3.5 vs. the Ravens Sunday night. Given that 96.2 percent of Chargers games seem to be decided by three points after a series of hard to explain fourth-quarter events, I’ll take the Chargers +3.5. Let’s stay hot.
GREENBERG: I am thankful for your picks.
And speaking of being thankful, my play of the year is Steelers -1, which I jumped on about 30 seconds after they fired Matt Canada. Am I worried the Steelers have replaced him with two coaches, one who is coordinating the offense and one calling plays? Yes. That’s stupid. But if the Steelers can’t beat Jake Browning, Teryl Austin should be fired Monday.
JACKSON: I could get behind that, but having seen the Steelers up close twice now, I have reservations. I think my card is complete.
Let’s eat, let’s bet and let’s nap. Also, let’s avoid overtime in Ohio State – Michigan.
(Photo of Jordan Love: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)