US voters will head to the polls Tuesday for off-year state and local elections in what is expected to serve as a bellwether for national trends at the ballot box in 2024.
Some of the key matchups are also seen as a referendum on GOP presidential contender Donald Trump, 77, who now leads President Biden, 80, in five of the 2024 race’s six battleground states.
Tuesday’s most competitive races include gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Mississippi, along with state legislature elections in Virginia that will determine whether Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin can win a majority there.
The outcome of ballot initiatives in Ohio, a Pennsylvania Supreme Court race, special congressional elections and other state contests will also help Democrats decide whether they have a winning message for next year’s general election with Biden at the top of their ticket.
The results will come as Biden is battling mounting pressure to step aside over everything from his dismal poll numbers to concerns about his age.
Some districts are closing schools Tuesday to make way for voters, so check your locality for more information.
Here is everything else to expect before casting your ballot:
Virginia
Youngkin is looking to win a majority in the Virginia state legislature, as Democrats currently hold a five-seat edge in the state Senate but lost the House of Delegates to the GOP when the governor was first elected in 2021.
The 2023 election will be a referendum on Youngkin, who advanced a series of executive actions on education and criminal justice, while also signing billions of dollars in tax cuts into law.
Notable races include the state Senate’s 31st District in northern Virginia, where Youngkin defeated Democratic opponent Terry McAuliffe, and the deep-blue 16th district surrounding the capital in Richmond.
GOP 31st District challenger Juan Pablo Segura is hoping to oust Democratic incumbent Russet Perry, while Republican Siobhan Dunnavant is defending her seat in the 16th district against Democratic Delegate Schuyler VanValkenburg.
The issue of abortion looms large in both races, with each party releasing dueling ad campaigns over Youngkin’s push to enact a ban on the abortion of fetuses over 15 weeks, with some exceptions, if his party wins the majority.
Republicans are also hoping to maintain their 52-48 majority in the House of Delegates by focusing on the successes of Youngkin’s agenda on the issues of parents’ rights and economic improvement, while portraying Democrats as soft on crime.
They also have made use of a scandal involving a Democratic candidate who performed sex acts with her husband for “tips” on an adult streaming website.
State GOP operatives have distributed mailers to highlight the lurid details about the Democratic hopeful, Susanna Gibson, who trails more than 10 percentage points in the open 57th District against Republican candidate David Owen.
Republican victories in the Virginia General Assembly would heighten speculation about Youngkin entering the 2024 GOP presidential primary to challenge former President Trump.
Kentucky
Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who recently received a Trump endorsement, is in a heated race to unseat his state’s Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, who is seeking a second term.
Beshear narrowly won his first gubernatorial election in 2019 but is now one of the most popular governors in the country, earning support from around half of the Republicans in Kentucky, a July Morning Consult poll found.
But Cameron and Republicans have attacked Beshear for his closeness to Biden, whom the Kentucky governor endorsed for a second term, betting that the president’s high unfavorability rate at the moment will drag down Democratic candidates in a state that went for Trump by 26 percentage points in 2020.
The race is rated “lean” Democratic, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Mississippi
Incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is also running for a second term in deep-red Mississippi, where he leads by single digits in a race that last month shifted from “likely” to “lean” Republican, the Cook Political Report assessed.
The Magnolia State hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1999, but the party is hoping to revive its chance at an upset victory to topple Reeves after former state Attorney General Jim Hood, a Democrat, lost his race to unseat Reeves in 2019.
Democrats are counting on some changes in voting regulations — including a requirement that the winning candidate score a majority statewide — and the name identification of their gubernatorial candidate, Brandon Presley, a distant cousin of Tupelo-born Elvis Presley, to deliver an upset.
Reeves has also been dogged by a state corruption investigation into his alleged abuse of millions of dollars in welfare funds while serving as Mississippi lieutenant governor.
Ohio ballot initiatives
Voters in Ohio are considering two ballot initiatives Tuesday, one of which will determine whether the state approves constitutional protections for abortions.
The proposed amendment, State Issue 1, would change the Ohio constitution to grant voters the “right to one’s own reproductive medical treatment” and ban authorities from “directly or indirectly burdening, penalizing or prohibiting abortion” before fetal viability.
Buckeye State voters batted down a ballot initiative in August to change the vote threshold for state constitutional amendments, meaning Issue 1 requires just a simple majority to pass.
Another ballot referendum, Issue 2, would legalize recreational marijuana in Ohio.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court
Pennsylvania Democrats currently hold a 4-2 majority on their state’s Supreme Court, with a seventh seat up for grabs on Election Day that could bring Republicans a step closer to winning a court majority.
GOP candidate Carolyn Carluccio, a former federal prosecutor, public defender, county solicitor and president judge of a county court of common pleas, will challenge Democratic candidate Daniel McCaffery, a former prosecutor for the Philadelphia district attorney’s office and current Pennsylvania Superior Court judge.
The race will also shed light on Republicans prospects in Pennsylvania for 2024, after Biden narrowly won the swing state in 2020.
Special congressional elections
Both Republicans and Democrats are looking at two special congressional elections to forecast potential vulnerabilities for 2024.
In Rhode Island, former Democratic Rep. David Cicilline retired early from the 1st Congressional District, which he won by 28 percentage points last year, pitting Republican Gerry Leonard against Democrat Gabe Amo, who appears to be a shoo-in on Election Day.
If Amo fails to overperform in the district that went for Biden by nearly 30 percentage points, his party will have to reassess some of its national strategy.
In Utah, GOP Rep. Chris Stewart resigned because of his wife’s illness, allowing Republicans to gauge their own strategy with candidate Celeste Maloy, who is going up against Democrat Kathleen Riebe.
Maloy formerly served as chief legal counsel for Stewart, who won election in 2022 by more than 35 percentage points.
New Jersey
Along with Virginia, Mississippi and Louisiana, New Jersey will hold elections for a slate of state legislature candidates, including southern Jersey Republican state Sen. Ed Durr, who ousted state Democratic Senate President Steve Sweeney in a 2021 upset.
Democrats are not projected to lose their majority in either chamber, but the contest will determine whether GOP incumbents can hold onto some of their recent gains in the Garden State.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, will also see whether his majority is hurt by a recent corruption indictment against US Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), who is refusing to resign from Congress.