SANTA CLARA — Don’t book those Las Vegas reservations yet unless you’re talking about the preseason game at Allegiant Stadium against the Raiders on Aug. 13.
Maybe it’s because I covered the Raiders through their 25-year return to Oakland from 1995 through 2019 and am used to seeing teams with grandiose dreams go sideways.
It’s hard to fathom things going that far south for the 49ers based on their roster. But given expectations both nationally and locally, going 9-8 or sneaking in as a wild card with a one and done in the playoffs isn’t going to cut it.
Some thoughts on potential hiccups that could derail a march to a sixth Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 11 in Sin City after observing the first four non-contact practices as well as Monday’s first padded session at the club facility:
No injuries yet — that will change
I can’t remember the last time the 49ers looked this healthy. Players who had trouble staying on the field last season (defensive tackle Arik Armstead, running back Elijah Mitchell) haven’t missed a rep.
Quarterback Brock Purdy is further along than most thought he’d be. Defensive end Javon Kinlaw has never had his body in a place where he looked like a first-round draft pick until now. Deebo Samuel is in shape and after a catch hit safety George Odum Monday as if he were a bowling ball hitting the 10-pin.
But this is the 49ers. This is football. Players will be injured, whether it be a season-ender, several games or with sporadic absences at bad times against key opponents.
The loss of any of these players could dramatically change the outlook of the 2023 season:
1) Left tackle Trent Williams. Williams is the gold standard at his position with the biggest drop in talent level should he be injured. The ripple effect would be felt along the entire offensive line.
2) Running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey doesn’t fall into the current controversy over the way running backs are paid is because he’s judged differently. He’s a terrific scrimmage runner and a legit and dangerous slot receiver. As general manager John Lynch put it, “He’s not just a running back. He’s a lot of things for us and we talk about him unlocking our offense.”
3) Defensive end Nick Bosa. More on him later, but Bosa is in anyone’s top three off the edge. Like Williams, his loss would affect the rest of the chain at the point of the attack.
4) Middle linebacker Fred Warner. A training camp treat, Warner may be the 49ers most inspirational player in terms of raising the intensity in practice since Ronnie Lott. He’s the prototype modern sideline-to-sideline inside linebacker. As good as Dre Greenlaw is, the 49ers would be severely compromised in the mid-level without Warner.
5) Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. I don’t really count Samuel as a conventional wide receiver. He’s McCaffrey-like in that his skill set is unique. Visual evidence suggests the 49ers have nothing like Aiyuk as a downfield threat unless Danny Gray finds some consitency.
6) Tight end George Kittle. His style invites injuries. Kittle missed just two games last year and if the 49ers could be guaranteed of another 15 games this season, they’d take it and run with it. He could be backed up by a pair of rookies this year in Cameron Latu and Braydon Willis.
Strange case of QB roulette
Going with four quarterbacks during a modern NFL training camp is just strange. Maybe it’s an overreach because of how the season ended last year in Philadelphia, plus it affords a chance to have another arm around for the days when Purdy is giving his right elbow a rest.
Trey Lance, for what it’s worth, probably had his best passing practice of training camp Monday. He earned Lynch’s admiration for working with Jeff Christensen, a quarterback guru who counts Patrick Mahomes as one of his pupils.
“I think in the past maybe Trey was working with multiple people,” Lynch said. “That’s like trying to work with multiple golf coaches. Signals can get mixed.”
Perhaps the 49ers are positioning themselves to have Lance shine in the preseason so they can get some kind of return on their investment if another team’s quarterback goes down before the final cutdown day. Sam Darnold looks as if he’s taken to the Shanahan system, and they’re set on Purdy as the starter.
As for Brandon Allen having “earned” training camp snaps, you’d think getting Lance and Darnold all the work possible aside from Purdy would be the priority.
But here’s one scenario no one is considering: What if what we saw from Lance Monday was a harbinger of things to come? And what if they trade him and he flourishes somewhere else while Purdy is merely efficient and mistake-free as opposed to dynamic and explosive?
To move up and get Lance, receive pennies on the dollar in trading him, and then see him become everything you hoped for on another team would be an embarrassing pie in the face.
The Bosa deal
Having gone through the whole Khalil Mack fiasco while covering the Raiders, I’m probably overly sensitive to this. Believe what you want, but the Raiders never had enough up-front cash to reel in Mack. That’s not the case with the 49ers and Bosa.
Yet it’s odd that Bosa isn’t in camp and doing a “hold-in” as Samuel did last year. That way he’d be in the meeting rooms with his teammates awaiting what would seem to be an inevitable extension making him the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback before actually taking the field.
Instead, Bosa remains in Florida, working out on his own. Out of sight, but never out of mind. The 49ers have a good track record of paying their top guys and Bosa should in theory be no different. But the fact that he’s not even on the premises could be an indication that the two sides are a long ways apart.
Even a body and fitness maniac like Bosa could use time to get in football shape. I remember Charles Woodson missing entire training camps while on the franchise tag and then stepping in and starting Week 1. But cornerback and the defensive line are different in terms of working in close proximity with your position group.
If Bosa were actually in the building, the 49ers as well as their fan base would breathe a little easier.