The Caitlin Clark national tour heads to Bloomington Thursday night as Indiana looks to earn a split in the regular-season series against Iowa.
The Hawkeyes won the first meeting by a 27-point margin (84-57) despite taking only a 43-37 lead into the third quarter.
The Hoosiers will be out for revenge as they try to extend their unbeaten run at home to 14 games.
Indiana has the country’s 11th-longest home winning streak and the longest in the Big Ten.
While Clark and the Hawkeyes are known for their marksmanship, the Hoosiers actually boast the best percentages for field goals (51.8%) and 3-pointers (41%) in the country.
Given both teams’ proficiency in getting up shots, it’s no surprise we have a total as high as 163.5.
However, a more advisable option for bettors might be to target the derivatives market with a play on the halftime total.
Iowa analysis
“There is talent, and there is talent, and there is talent, and then there’s a genius.”
That’s how Motown’s legendary manager Shelly Berger once described Gary, Indiana’s own Michael Jackson after meeting the iconic singer.
Those exact words could also describe Clark, arguably the biggest name in college sports.
In her last game, she scored 49 points to break the NCAA Division I women’s all-time scoring record previously held by Washington’s Kelsey Plum.
Clark’s 3,569 career points trails former Kansas star Lynette Woodard by 80 for the women’s major college basketball record.
The NCAA doesn’t recognize Woodard as the all-time scorer because she played at a time (late 1970s, early ‘80s) before the NCAA recognized women’s collegiate sports.
Woodard racked up 3,649 points before the NCAA governed women’s sports, which were previously under the Intercollegiate Athletics for Women.
Clark needs only 99 points to surpass the NCAA men’s record held by LSU’s Pete Maravich, who finished with 3,667 points when there wasn’t a 3-point line and freshmen weren’t allowed to play on varsity teams.
Not only does Clark lead all divisions in scoring, men’s and women’s, averaging 32.8 points, but she’s also the leader in assists with 8.5 per game.
At 40.8%, Clark is one of three women’s college basketball players this season with a usage rate above 40%.
The Hawkeyes point guard is truly a generational talent, and it’s no wonder that Iowa leads the country in scoring with 87.3 points per game.
Indiana analysis
Indiana isn’t too far behind Iowa in scoring, ranking sixth with an average of 80.9 points per game.
The Hoosiers have three players who average at least 28 minutes and shoot 40% or better from beyond the arc.
Whereas, even with Clark’s prodigious shooting, the Hawkeyes don’t have a single player that’s matched such a feat.
In the earlier meeting, Indiana didn’t arrive in Iowa City until the morning of the game due to a winter storm that shut down travel around the state.
Yet, the Hoosiers still put up 37 points in the first half.
It’s certainly possible Indiana simply ran out of gas in the second half after enduring the difficult travel conditions.
The Hoosiers finished the game shooting 42.6% from the floor and 25% from behind the perimeter.
Indiana head coach Teri Moren painted a different picture in her postgame press conference with reporters.
“We’re not going to use that as an excuse,” Moren said of the travel issues. “That’s not the excuse why we lost.”
Nonetheless, Moren did unwillingly admit that her team looked “out of sorts.”
Indiana’s shooting performance was well below its season averages. Thus, I’d have to think it’ll perform much better in front of a raucous home crowd at Assembly Hall.
Betting on College Basketball?
Iowa vs. Indiana pick
There’s no question Clark will be the best player on the court Thursday night, and as a point guard, she can affect the game by dictating the tempo.
Per HerHoopStats.com, the Hawkeyes rank 15th in pace, averaging 77.3 possessions per 40 minutes. Their uptempo style is designed to help speed up their opponents and tilt the game in Iowa’s favor.
With both teams ranked in the top 10 for offensive efficiency, there should be a high level of shot-making on display.
Rather than playing an over for the full game, I prefer to target the shorter number in the first half, with a total of 77.5 at BetRivers.
This should give me some insurance should the Hoosiers start to wear down in the second half, like they did in the first matchup.
Pick: 1H over 77.5 (-125)