What better way to measure the first effects of Aaron Rodgers on the New York Jets than pitting him against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in Week 1?
The Jets’ premiere defense overcame the Bills last season in spite of Zach Wilson throwing for 156 yards.
With young and prominent weapons on both sides of the ball, a capable signal caller was the missing piece to bring a 7-10 last-place team to a playoff contender.
It’s expected that Rodgers will set the Jets’ offense into autopilot and enable a defense that allowed the fewest touchdowns in the NFL to win games.
The Bills are tired of playing second fiddle to the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals come playoff time — especially after posting the highest margin of victory at 10.6 points last season.
Both games between these two AFC East foes were defensive, one-possession decisions in 2022 that stayed under the point total. The under has hit six of the last eight meetings and three of the last four at MetLife.
The Bills begin the season with sky-high expectations to overcome the hurdle, and the Jets with air-tight Big Apple media pressure.
There’s marquee talent on both sides of the ball, which could all spell for a stubborn game.
Jets vs. Bills ‘Monday Night Football’ prediction
Yes, Rodgers had his worst season as a starting quarterback in 2022 with a 91.1 rating. But the 39-year-old hampered a broken thumb inside a hodge podge offense of inexperience and a dilapidated relationship with personnel.
Lest we forget he won back-to-back MVP honors the prior two seasons before that with ratings of 111.9 and 121.5, respectively. The future Hall-of-Famer is sure to at least service the likes of Offensive Rookie of the Year winner, Garrett Wilson.
In the midst of last year’s quarterback woes, Wilson had a 1,110-yard campaign and reeled in 83 receptions in his rookie debut, which is the eight-most by a rookie in the last 10 seasons. He averaged seven receptions for 85 yards against the Bills.
This newly forged relationship will face a Buffalo secondary that was quietly more generous to the pass vs. the rush. The Bills allowed a middle-of-the-line 362 pass completions, which was 16th in the NFL.
They did add OLB Leonard Floyd, who was good for nine sacks in 2022, to stack up their pass rush alongside Pro Bowl Safety Jordan Poyer’s four interceptions.
But Tre’Davious White leads a group of younger cornerbacks to hunt down Wilson on Monday.
White returned from an ACL injury in late November, but still averaged one pass defended per the final six games of the season.
Rodgers can also pivot to his trusty Green Bay friends in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. Lazard led the Packers in receptions, receiving yards and targets in 2022, while Cobb has grabbed 498 career passes from Rodgers over the course of 10 seasons with each other.
The larger issue for new Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will be the stingy Bills run defense, which limited opponents to a league-best 387 rush attempts through the season.
The Jets get the promising Breece Hall back from a season-ending ACL rupture, who ate 5.8 YPC in seven games. Plus, they complement him with Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook, who sewed four straight 1,100-plus-yard seasons together with the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaking of legs, Allen will need to use them. Since entering the league in 2018, he leads all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns with 38 and fourth in yards per game at 40.1.
The Bills running backs are ironically never a point of note. James Cook will take over the No. 1 back duties, but DT Quinnen Williams, LB Quincy Williams and LB C.J. Mosley present a ferocious front.
Stefon Diggs returns as Allen’s foolproof in the passing game. The two have combined for 83.8 yards per game and 29 touchdowns in their three seasons together.
The matchup to watch will be Diggs and cornerback Sauce Gardner. The Defensive Rookie of the Year limited receivers to 45.9% of passes caught and a 53.9 passer rating for balls thrown his way. Sheesh.
If Gardner exposes Diggs, Allen’s next options are a pair of tight ends in Pro Bowler Dawson Knox and first-round draft pick Dalton Kincaid.
Something will have to give as New York limited opposing offenses to 15 passing touchdowns in 2022, also a league-best.
Betting on the NFL?
The Jets’ offseason shaves the margin down between them and the Bills. An explosive offense against a revamped one with two of the NFL’s most formidable defenses butting heads is all a recipe for a low-scoring affair and I think 45.5 points is generous.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets pick
Under 45.5 at BetMGM (-110)