The NFL has slowly become a passing league over the last decade, and one player currently with the Las Vegas Raiders has been the stud of studs at wide receiver in this era.
His name is Davante Adams, and after finishing with 14 receiving touchdowns in 2022, the bet to make is for him to have 11 or more receiving touchdowns again in 2023.
The latest odds for this market are over 10.5 at +150 (40 percent implied probability), available at Bet365.
Upon first glance, that bet doesn’t scream value, but the more you dig into the numbers, the more it looks like a disrespectful line.
Adams has been nothing but a touchdown machine in his career, with 43 touchdowns in 47 games over the last three seasons.
Now, the majority of those catches came on passes from former NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, and the thought was Adams may take a step back in 2022 with the Raiders and quarterback Derek Carr.
Well, he put those concerns to rest quickly with scores in his first three games in the Silver and Black and five TDs in his first five games.
Adams went on a tear as a Raider as he finished the season with 14 touchdowns on a career-high 180 targets.
Adams’ scoring pedigree is obvious.
He has finished six of the last seven seasons with double-digit touchdown catches, and his 43 receiving TDs over the last three seasons and the most by any player in the NFL in that span (Tyreek Hill was second with 35 scores).
What’s most remarkable is he managed to do that with four different starting quarterbacks (Rodgers, Carr, Jordan Love and Jarrett Stidham).
Adams is the type of player who can explode in any given game.
In 2022, he finished with two or more touchdowns in five different games and had 10 scores by Week 10.
Another factor to consider is how well Adams fared when he moved to the AFC West.
In six games against his new divisional rivals, the former Packer lit up the scoreboard with seven touchdowns, averaging seven catches and 126 receiving yards per game.
Now, the elephant in the room is new Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
Obviously, he’s not as talented as Rodgers but is not a huge drop-off from Carr.
The former 49ers and Patriots quarterback came into the NFL with Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator, and McDaniels is now the head coach of the Raiders.
With his knowledge of McDaniels’ system, it should be an easier transition for Garoppolo to acclimate himself during training camp and develop a proper rapport with his stud wideout.
Besides, Carr wasn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard in 2022, and Adams still managed to corral 14 of Carr’s 24 TD passes.
The main drawback to betting on NFL futures is the injury risk.
Any bet can be dead from just one play.
However, banking on a player like Adams, who ranked second overall in targets per game while ranking fifth in total red-zone targets, is about as safe as it gets.
Injury should be the only reason this bet doesn’t win.
Our pick: Davante Adams over 10.5 receiving touchdowns +150 (Bet365)