I know we’re only two weeks in, but this is shaping up to be the most fun season in years. You can tell we’re on to something truly unique when the two most talked-about teams this week are Alabama and … Colorado.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
What has happened to Alabama? You (and I) predicted a three-loss season for the Tide, which used to be unthinkable. Last year’s team was the runaway national title favorite but missed the College Football Playoff. Recruiting suggests that their WRs and RBs are elite, but my eyes tell a different story. Their only elite playmakers the past two years were transfers (Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs). Their penalty issues won’t go away, and the days of the defense being elite seem long gone.
What has happened to the Tide? —Vincent V.
I’ve got a million theories, but the simplest explanation is this: The past 15 years were not normal.
It defies logic that Nick Saban brought in one recruiting class after another after another where every single one of them panned out. This should not happen. There should be years where you miss on some evaluations, or too many guys flame out, or your quarterback is not a future first-rounder. These fairly commonplace potholes regularly affect the entire rest of the sport but never seemed to apply to Alabama.
Well — finally — this is what normal looks like. After such incredible hit rates at QB, running back and receiver, it appears Alabama finally failed to land yet another Bryce Young. The highly-touted running backs are good but not great. The most reliable receiver, Jermaine Burton, came from Georgia. The D-linemen don’t appear to be developing as quickly as before, and the DBs may be a tad overhyped.
And while Saban has embraced the transfer portal, he still does so selectively. Alabama brought in just five players this year, and none of them play running back or receiver. He brought in a QB, Notre Dame’s Tyler Buchner, who was underwhelming with the Irish and apparently was in preseason camp, too, because he could not beat out Jalen Milroe. Did he underestimate the extent of the holes on his roster? Or, did he pursue other guys but they opted to play elsewhere?
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Not much went right for the Tide against Texas, but some issues were more fixable than others. Alabama’s O-line is more talented than it showed on Saturday, but starting left tackle Kadyn Proctor was a five-star, he’s still a freshman who allowed a team-high five pressures. He’ll get more comfortable. Ditto starting safety Caleb Downs. Also, penalties are fixable (I think). Remember, Milroe had two TD passes called back — one on a hold by Proctor.
What I don’t think will change: Milroe will never be a contender for the Heisman. Jase McClellan will not morph into Derrick Henry. There are no first-round receivers, much less four at the same time like in 2018-19. And there is no Jonathan Allen or Quinnen Williams on that D-line.
I predicted 9-3, but that prediction included a win over Texas. Now I think 9-3 is the Tide’s ceiling. And guess what? That’s normal. Good programs go 9-3 all the time. But Alabama has been so abnormal for so long, that it feels like the end of days.
If the Buffs can go 10-3, with losses to USC, Oregon and Utah, how much does this grand experiment change the college football landscape? Would these changes be seismic or a ripple in a pond? — Brian T.
As long as CU does not completely implode from here, I don’t think the record matters that much. Deion’s impact has already been astronomical — case in point, nearly an identical number of people watched Nebraska-Colorado on Saturday afternoon as watched Texas-Alabama that night — and it stands to reason others are going to want to emulate it.
Think about how many ADs at down-and-out programs over the years have desperately tried to generate even a fraction of that buzz, with little to no success. Kansas’ Jeff Long was so eager to unleash Les Miles at Kansas that he hired a documentary crew before he’d even made the hire. Arizona State’s Ray Anderson thought he could reinvent the entire head coaching model with Herm Edwards. Illinois hired … Lovie Smith. The list goes on and on.
The problem is, all those guys, while seemingly big splashes, still fit within the fairly narrow established paradigm of what constitutes a college head coach: Guys who have already been an NFL or major college head coach, even if their previous gig didn’t end well; and “hot” offensive or defensive coordinators. That’s about it.
Turns out, you don’t have to be any of those. Deion, on resume alone, was a short-lived HBCU head coach with some previous high school experience. But outside the administrative bubble, he is an extremely charismatic NFL Hall of Famer and successful businessman with a preternatural ability to connect with people — especially young people.
To answer the question, it’s possible he has a seismic ripple in that it might open the doors to all sorts of coaching candidates who may have previously never gotten an interview. ADs may go looking for their own “celebrity” coach. A decade from now, there may be fewer curmudgeonly White guys wearing headsets and more coaches who actually look and talk like the players.
But, ADs in general are still extremely risk-averse. None of them want to lose their jobs over a risky hire gone wrong. And, it may very well be there is only one Deion. In which case, maybe there’s only a short-term jolt, then a return to the status quo.
Hey Stewart! Do you think the version of Miami that we saw against Texas A&M is the highest level of performance that we’ll see the rest of the season, or will the Miami we see in November be a better, more dangerous team than they are now? And if you think Miami will improve throughout the season, what’s Miami’s best-case scenario for how Year 2 of the Cristobal era will play out? — Matthew M., Chicago
The problem with these early-season games is it’s difficult to say whether Miami was that good or A&M was that bad. Strange as it sounds, will the Aggies wind up being one of the worst defenses the Canes face all season? Time will tell.
But I’m optimistic about Miami. It never made sense why Tyler Van Dyke regressed so drastically last season. As a second-year freshman in 2021, he had a 160.1 passer rating. In 2022 that dropped to 133.6. Clearly, Cristobal thought the problem was OC Josh Gattis, who, for all his success at Michigan, was a disaster in his lone season in Coral Gables. Under Shannon Dawson, Van Dyke looks even better than he did in 2021.
Florida State to me is the clear team to beat in the ACC. After that, it’s wide open. If you told me the Canes make it to Charlotte and play the Noles a second time, I’d believe you. If you told me they finish fifth behind FSU, Clemson, UNC and Duke (in some order), I’d believe you. Anything lower than that, though, would tell me the Week 2 game was completely deceiving and that A&M by then had completed another 5-7-type season.
Miami beat Texas A&M 48-33 in Week 2. (Sam Navarro / USA Today)
Stew, with Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M all losing a game already and looking vulnerable, who do you see winning the SEC West? — Rob W., Columbia, S.C.
I still expect it to be LSU. I wrote last week about why the Tigers’ disappointing performance against Florida State seemed less of an indictment than Clemson’s against Duke. One of the more fixable issues at the time was the bizarre deployment of star LB Harold Perkins, who barely rushed the passer against FSU. Brian Kelly must have agreed, because last week against Grambling State, he played in the box just 20 percent of the time, versus 75 percent against FSU, and rushed the passer on 10 of 35 snaps, versus seven of 58 the week before.
Obviously, it will be more telling how he and the defense perform this week against Mississippi State.
I am by no means ruling out the possibility Alabama wins the West. We know Nick Saban can get his team to play much better from Week 2 to Week 12. But this is not going to turn out like the 2014 and ’15 seasons, where the Tide lost early-season games against Ole Miss, turned around and won out the rest of the regular season (and in 2015, the entire season). It would likely be the same scenario as a year ago, when LSU took the crown at 9-3, with a nonconference loss to Florida State.
I’m confident in declaring that A&M will not win the West.
The dark horse to watch is Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin bringing in Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders told us he wasn’t completely confident in Jaxson Dart, but he’s been singing Dart’s praises since the spring, and the QB has definitely looked sharper. It’s early, but he’s currently the nation’s third-rated passer behind Caleb Williams and Sam Hartman. Louisiana Tech transfer Tre Harris had already amassed 188 receiving yards and five TDs before leaving last week’s Tulane game with a first-half injury. (He’s expected back.)
All that being said, the Rebels were in a dogfight with the Michael Pratt-less Green Wave until the last two minutes. (A late fumble recovery TD made the 37-20 score look more lopsided than it was.) So I’m not ready to say Lane Kiffin’s team is yet in a position to win the division. We’ll get a better sense when they visit Tuscaloosa next week.
Texas A&M keeps punishing me every time I choose them to win in my fantasy football contest. Are there any other top teams that I should avoid taking to win? — Timothy C.
What is your criteria for “top teams,” and why was A&M ever in it?
This is probably going to be a popular question, but let’s assume Mel Tucker is (deservedly) gone after the hearing in October. Where does Michigan State go from here? Initial reports are that recruiting isn’t going to take a major hit with their current commitments, but after a few years of lackluster football, on top of this entire mess, I can’t see MSU making a big splash on a new coach. Are any names worth monitoring? — Devan D.
I don’t know that the school can wait until October at this point after Tucker went scorched earth Monday and accused his employer of conducting a “sham” process with some underlying motive. At this very moment, the lawyers are likely trying to figure out if they can go ahead and fire him for cause right now. His contract states he can be terminated for cause if “the coach engages in any conduct which constitutes moral turpitude, or which, in the university’s reasonable judgment, would tend to bring public disrespect, contempt or ridicule upon the university.”
Has that not already happened?
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But I disagree with your pessimistic assessment of who Michigan State might be able to land as his replacement. This will be a VERY attractive job, for several reasons. One, it’s in the Big Ten, and as we move into the post-2024 era, coaches in other leagues will be clamoring to get into one of the Big Two conferences. Two, you can win there. Tucker won 11 games just two years ago. Mark Dantonio before him did it five times in six years.
And three — have you seen how much they pay their coaches? It seems quaint already, but remember how staggering it seemed at the time when Michigan State gave Tucker $5.5 million a year after one season at Colorado? Then committed to a guaranteed (unless the coach sabotages it) $95 million contract based on a 9-1 start to the 2021 season? Sign. Me. Up.
It goes without saying that Deion will be at the top of the list of most major jobs that come open, but I doubt this would be the one he leaves for. But whoever winds up being the hot coach come the end of this regular season — Washington’s Kalen DeBoer? Kansas’ Lance Leipold? — would have to at least entertain overtures from Michigan State. If not, there’s a guy at Pitt who won 20 games over the past two seasons and has just a little bit of familiarity with Michigan State — Pat Narduzzi. And someone is going to make Ohio State’s Brian Hartline a head coach sooner than later.
Imagine a TV executive claiming that Florida State does not carry the South Florida market because Tallahassee is located seven hours from Miami and there’s another school in the market. I think we can all agree that guy would be laughed out of the room. So why aren’t Oregon State and Washington State being given the same credit for Portland and Seattle? — Joe H., Jacksonville, Fla.
It’s interesting to me that those two schools get automatically lumped together because one fits your description more so than the other. Wazzu draws fairly well both nationally and locally. From 2015-21, admittedly driven in large part by Mike Leach, the Cougars had the fourth-most average viewers in the conference. More recently, this past Saturday, ABC’s primetime Wisconsin-Wazzu game earned a massive 8.3 rating in Seattle, per Chris Daniels, a reporter at the city’s ABC affiliate.
Whereas Oregon State is more the little engine that could most perceive it to be. The Beavers’ viewership was dead last in the conference over that time period, which coincided with the dark days during and immediately after Gary Andersen’s tenure. A good proxy for national interest is where the networks tend to slot a team’s games. Last season, even as the Beavers went 10-3, they had one game make it to ABC and two on ESPN versus six on Pac-12 Networks. Wazzu, 7-6, had three on Fox and one on ESPN, but also seven on Pac-12 Network.
So how did they both get left behind? Well, for one thing, the Big 12 had been solely focused on the Four Corners schools for 13 months and ran out of room once all four accepted. Arizona and Arizona State football are not any more attractive than those two. And Oregon and Washington unquestionably have bigger national brands. Last season, eight of the Ducks’ 12 regular-season games got picked up by ABC, Fox or ESPN with only two on Pac-12 Networks. Washington, a surprise team, had more games on FS1 or ESPN2 than did Oregon but still just three on Pac-12 Networks. Those are more in line with that of most Big Ten schools.
As I’ve said before, my dream scenario is that the Beavers and Cougs both reach the Pac-12 Championship Game, one makes the Playoff, and the Big 12 (more realistic than the Big Ten) goes back to ESPN/Fox and asks for more money to invite them, too. After all, the Big Ten will be at 18 now, the ACC at 17, so why not 18 in the Big 12?
Do you think Minnesota can actually win the Big Ten West with how bad it has looked this season? — Todd M., Minneapolis
No. But I’m also not sure there’s going to be a Big Ten West champion this year. Is it mathematically possible for six teams to all go 4-5?
What is going on with Oklahoma State’s QB situation? Playing three guys equally is something I’ve never heard of before and it appears there’s no end in sight with Mike Gundy saying this week that there’s a chance this goes on into Big 12 play. — Josh A.
I’ve seen plenty of coaches play two for an extended period — Steve Spurrier sometimes rotated them by play — but I can’t recall a three-headed monster. And that’s truly what it is.
Alan Bowman, the former Texas Tech/Michigan transfer — has attempted 40 passes, redshirt freshman Garret Rangel 24, and sophomore Gunnar Gundy 16. Bowman was the favorite going in, but he’s actually been the least efficient of the three. And last week against Arizona State, it was Rangel behind center on the last two drives, when the Cowboys, up just 17-15 heading into the fourth quarter, put the game away on a field-goal drive, and then, after the defense held on an ASU fourth-and-2 from its own 33, a 16-yard Rangel TD pass.
The first week: the order went Rangel, Bowman, Gundy. The second week: Bowman, Gundy, Rangel. You can tell where this is going. “Just like in Kindergarten,” said Gundy. “Single file.”
Oklahoma State hosts South Alabama this week, a game the Cowboys could absolutely lose if they’re not careful. (The spread is seven points.) My conventional football worldview says Gundy needs to pick one of them before the Week 4 trip to Iowa State. But Gundy has always done things differently.
His explanation on Monday: “Who are the two that you would tell so far watching them play, ‘You’re not playing this game?’ … If they come in and sit down and say, ‘Hey coach, how come I didn’t get to play in this game based on Games 1 and 2?’ You have to have a good reason for that.”
Maybe it all sorts itself out this week. Or, maybe Gundy is on to something. Make the other team have to prepare for three different quarterbacks and hope that in doing so, they run out of time to work on, say, third-and-long packages. Or red zone defense. Or special teams. And exploit the heck out of that.
Do you think the Big Ten powerbrokers wish they could rewind back a month and add Colorado? Even before the first two games, they were scheduled for Big Noon Saturday, which means Fox certainly saw the early appeal. — Mark, Blackwood, N.J.
Only if they could get Deion himself to sign the Grant of Rights.
(Top photo: Gary Cosby Jr. / USA Today)