Are we positive that a rookie can’t win the Cy Young Award?
When you dive into the numbers, Kodai Senga is a very attractive Cy Young candidate despite being a rookie and rightfully not having a chance to win the NL Rookie of the Year due to Corbin Carroll’s emergence.
That’s right, despite the odds pointing to the contrary, Senga should have a better chance at winning the NL Cy Young than Rookie of the Year.
Currently, you can still grab Senga to win the NL Cy Young at 150:1 on DraftKings and BetRivers Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into the stats.
| Blake Snell -345 |
| Justin Steele +200 |
| Zac Gallen 20/1 |
| Spencer Strider 40/1 |
| Corbin Burnes 100/1 |
| Zack Wheeler 100/1 |
| Kodai Senga 150/1 |
| Logan Webb 150/1 |
Blake Snell is the overwhelming favorite to win the Cy Young, despite eerily similar numbers to Senga and similar non-existent team success.
Numbers are via @mike_petriello of MLB.com, on X, the social media platform formally known as Twitter.
| Kodai Senga: 11-7, 2.95 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 11.07 K/9, 4.17 BB/9, 3.5 WAR |
| Blake Snell: 14-9, 2.43 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 11.69 K/9, 5.01 BB/9, 3.6 WAR |
| Justin Steele: 16-3, 2.49 ERA, 2,91 FIP, 9 K/9, 1.87 BB/9, 4.7 WAR |
| Zac Gallen: 15-8, 3.50 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 1.92 BB/9, 3.55 WAR |
| Zack Wheeler: 11-6, 3.70 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 10.08 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 5.4 WAR |
| Logan Webb: 10-12, 3.4 ERA, 3.7 FIP, 8.25 K/9, 1.35 BB/9, 4.1 WAR |
| Spencer Strider: 17-5, 3.73 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 13.79 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 5.1 WAR |
If you go just by WAR, Strider should be favored here based on his insane strikeout numbers; he has 259 right now and could end the season with 300.
But his bloated 3.73 ERA is holding him back despite a very strong FIP that implies he has been particularly unlucky this season.
Former Met Zack Wheeler has been very solid as well in 2023, but it would appear FanGraphs’ WAR calculations do not value ERA as much as it values FIP.
History does not favor either of these two pitchers, as no pitcher with an ERA above three has won the NL Cy Young since 2006, when Brandon Webb did it with a 3.10 ERA for the Diamondbacks.
In total, it has only happened three times in NL history, by Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton and Webb.
Let’s take out everyone with an ERA above 3.00 for a second; it would leave just three candidates in Senga, Snell and Steele.
Then we get into the nitty gritty of strikeout numbers vs. WAR vs. walk rate.
It is worth noting that only two pitchers in baseball have an ERA below three and a strikeout rate higher than 11 K/9.
You guessed it, Snell and Senga are the only two in all of baseball.
Could Senga win it? Certainly. But will he?
Betting on Baseball?
That will come down to the writers, and only the voters and The Post’s Jon Heyman knows which way they will vote.
But a 150/1 stab on Senga is more than worth a bet at this juncture. Fair value is likely in the 60/1 range.
The pick: Kodai Senga NL Cy Young winner 150/1 (BetRivers/DK)