The Mets have finally cooled off, dropping back-to-back games after a six-game win streak.
Luis Severino will toe the rubber for the Mets on Tuesday in San Francisco, hoping to continue his red-hot start to the season. However, Logan Webb, one of MLB’s elite aces, will oppose him.
Expect both pitchers to shove, leading to a lower-scoring affair.
Mets vs. Giants odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +114 | +1.5 (-192) | o7 (-105) |
| Giants | -135 | -1.5 (+160) | u7 (-115 |
Mets vs. Giants Prediction
Severino’s fastball looks good, which is the key to his success.
He struggled mightily with the pitch last season, leading to a devastating home run problem that juiced his ERA.
However, he’s locating it better, leading to improved results.
Specifically, opposing hitters slugged .692 on Severino’s fastball in 2023, but that mark is down to .281 in early 2024.
As a result, he looks more like his old self. He’s allowed only five earned runs through his first four starts in Queens.
He’s slightly overperforming (3.88 expected ERA), but his performance is encouraging.
Meanwhile, Webb looks like a potential Cy Young candidate.
He’s significantly improved the efficacy of his two secondary offerings, leading to three legitimate above-average offerings (sinker, changeup, sweeper).
However, the real juicy part of this handicap is how Webb pitches at Oracle Park. He is nearly unhittable at home.
He posted a 2.20 ERA across 111 home innings pitched last year. He has a career 2.70 ERA when pitching in the Bay Area.
A big part of his home success comes from the fact that he’s a ground-ball pitcher (career 58%) throwing in a pitcher’s park (Oracle ranks 27th in Statcast’s Park Factors), but that shouldn’t dissuade us from backing him in these situations.
Behind these two stud starters are two excellent relief corps.
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The Giants’ bullpen is underperforming, but it’s hard to imagine that continuing for the entire season. Camilio Doval, Tyler Rogers and Trevor Rogers are three excellent back-end relievers.
Meanwhile, the Mets bullpen ranks first among MLB bullpens in pitching WAR (1.5) and second in strikeout rate (29%).
Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino look more like their old selves, allowing only three earned runs with 26 strikeouts in 16 innings.
However, the breakout performances of Reed Garrett, Jake Diekman, Drew Smith and Jorge Lopez have made this unit nearly impenetrable.
Mets vs. Giants pick
These are two red-hot lineups. Still, the Mets are a tad banged up (Francisco Alvarez is on the 10-day IL), and the Giants project closer to a league-average offense in the long run, especially against right-handed pitchers.
Ultimately, I’ll back two stud starting pitchers – especially Webb at Oracle – and two elite bullpens, banking on a low-scoring contest in the Bay on Tuesday night.