And we’re back!
The NBA 2023-24 regular season tips off Tuesday night. That means we’re about to be immersed in eight months of arguing, analyzing and obsessing over every little bit of information that either confirms our thoughts, theories and biases or flies in the face of them. And we choose to ignore it because we’re just certain we’re right about this stuff.
The Denver Nuggets are looking to defend their title, and everybody else is looking up how to get horses with carriages into their home arenas to distract Nikola Jokić. We have so many new faces in new places, trade requests/threats and exciting rookies ahead of us. This is going to be a brilliant season.
To start the season, I’m going to mention something I like and a question I have for each team, then make a random prediction nobody is allowed to hold against me at the end of the season.
Reminder: The Power Rankings don’t just rank the 30 teams. We divide these teams into tiers, which teams can move in and out of. The season hasn’t started yet, so we have the tiers in the Power Rankings broken into six categories right now:
- Not tanking but maybe someday — They haven’t started tanking yet, but it’s on the table this season.
- Looking to make the Play-In — They’ve been rebuilding/retooling and think they can crack the top 10 in their respective conference.
- Play-In Tournament teams or better — They should be in the mix unless something disastrous happens.
- Playoff teams — Probably don’t have to worry about dropping down to the Play-In Tournament.
- On the brink of contention — A piece away from us believing they can win the title.
- Contenders — They are contending for the championship, barring a massive injury.
As always, I am sure we will all agree on the placement of all 30 teams, especially your favorite team.
Here’s how the (offseason) Power Rankings work:
- It’s up to my discretion how the rankings shake out. For some teams, they’ll be hit in the short term. Others will be given the benefit for the long term. Yes, it is entirely subjective.
- If I have a team ahead of another team, there’s no reason to ask why they’re ranked above the team you like. The answer is pretty simple: I think that team is set up better for success.
- Yes, I watch the games. And yes, I watch your favorite team.
- This is supposed to be fun, so let’s have fun.
With all that said, let’s dive into Week 1 of The Athletic’s NBA Power Rankings, where we all agree these predictions are made in a safe space!
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Tier 1 – The Contenders
What do we like? Pretty much everything! The Nuggets bring back their starting five on a championship team that cruised through the playoffs. They lost some key role players off the bench, but Jokić hasn’t retired for that full-time equestrian life yet.
What do we question? Whether the young guys are ready. I think they have at least three or four young guys who will become rotation contributors soon, but I don’t know if soon means this season. Justin Holiday has big Bruce Brown Jr. shoes to fill until the youth is up to championship speed.
One random prediction: Denver leads the league in offensive rating.
Offensive Rating
116.8 (5th)
Defensive Rating
113.5 (15th tied)
Western
Tier 1 – The Contenders
What do we like? That Freak Time combination. That’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greek Freak) and Damian Lillard (Dame Time) having their nicknames inappropriately mashed together. After SexLand in Cleveland, this seems mild. Dame has never been more wide-open, and Giannis has never had so much room to operate.
What do we question? The depth. There are plenty of veteran pieces to potentially contribute off the bench, but it’s possible Robin Lopez, Malik Beasley and Jae Crowder don’t all click for the reserve unit.
One random prediction: The Bucks don’t finish in the top 15 in defensive rating.
Offensive Rating
114.3 (15th)
Defensive Rating
110.9 (4th)
Eastern
Tier 1 – The Contenders
What do we like? Their top six. Holy hell, look at those names with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņģis, Derrick White and Al Horford. If all those guys stay healthy, that’s an impossible matchup on random regular-season nights.
What do we question? The rest of the team. There isn’t a ton of tangible talent there, although they can certainly grind out some rotation minutes with a few guys. Or maybe they trade for someone or add in the buyout market in February.
One random prediction: Jayson Tatum wins MVP.
Offensive Rating
117.3 (2nd)
Defensive Rating
110.6 (2nd)
Eastern
Tier 1 – The Contenders
What do we like? This roster is night and day from what we were looking at this time last year. There is real depth at almost every position, and they have defined roles with their complementary options. Against most opponents in the crowded West, the Lakers have an answer and a matchup problem to present back to them.
What do we question? Whether the size is there to solve the Jokić problem. Nobody can shut down Jokić, but you need bodies to throw his way. You can’t pretend Rui Hachimura is an actual solution to defending him. Anthony Davis, Christian Wood and Jaxson Hayes: Is that enough size with defense?
One random prediction: LeBron James plays 70 regular-season games, his most as a Laker.
Offensive Rating
113.9 (19th)
Defensive Rating
113.2 (12th)
Western
Tier 1 – The Contenders
What do we like? I know they came up short, but you still have to love the team’s core in terms of competing for a title. Maybe Klay Thompson isn’t quite himself, and maybe the mileage on Draymond Green worries you a bit. But Steph Curry is still destructive, and the addition of Chris Paul gives them another playmaker.
What do we question? Whether the Jordan Poole incident/cloud hanging over the team was the real reason they were so bad on the road last season. That should be an obvious yes, but teams sometimes just stink on the road. The Warriors being that way when defending a title is just so weird. We’ll find out if they still have that championship focus.
One random prediction: Curry plays at least 70 games and knocks down 350 3-pointers.
Offensive Rating
115.1 (10th)
Defensive Rating
113.4 (14th)
Western
Tier 1 – The Contenders
What do we like? Look at that star power up front. Some third defender on any given night is going to have to guard Bradley Beal or Devin Booker or Kevin Durant. There is absolutely no way to stop that other than maybe a prayer group or some holy water. This has the potential to be the greatest offense ever.
What do we question? Is the supporting cast good enough and deep enough? We saw the Suns flash some problems for the Nuggets last postseason, then it didn’t matter. The Suns need more interior depth and 3-and-D guys to help out the stars. Jusuf Nurkić will either be revived in Phoenix or have a giant fork stuck in him.
One random prediction: Devin Booker makes first-team All-NBA.
Offensive Rating
114.5 (14th)
Defensive Rating
112.3 (7th)
Western
Tier 1 – The Contenders
Tier 2 – Brink of Contention
What do we like? They just find a way to screw things up for everybody else in the East. A lot of that is defense. A lot of that is coaching and culture. A lot of that is Jimmy Butler being too stubborn to let anybody else in the East feel comfortable. The Heat are still really good, even though they lost Max Strus and Gabe Vincent.
What do we question? Where the next diamonds in the rough come from. There are potential candidates casual fans have never heard of who will end up ruining your favorite team’s night. But the Heat still have to develop those guys into becoming good role players on the big stage. Just because the Heat often figure it out, doesn’t mean it has to happen every season.
One random prediction: The Heat make the Eastern Conference finals.
Offensive Rating
112.3 (25th)
Defensive Rating
112.8 (9th)
Eastern
Tier 2 – Brink of Contention
What do we like? The offensive firepower from a team that had the best offensive rating in league history. This Kings team can fill it up with anybody, and last season was their first year under unanimous Coach of the Year Mike Brown. There’s a lot of room for growth on both ends of the floor. Adding Sasha Vezenkov and keeping continuity for a franchise that rarely has it could be massive.
What do we question? The defense was really bad last season, and a lot of people are wondering if the Kings can stay healthy again. If not, maybe a falloff is imminent. Maybe shots don’t fall the way they did and the defense actually hurts them. Or maybe playing with expectations makes it harder to keep up what happened last season.
One random prediction: The Kings finish top six in the West.
Offensive Rating
118.6 (1st)
Defensive Rating
116.0 (23rd tied)
Western
Tier 2 – Brink of Contention
What do we like? Not to sound like a broken record every season, but the makeup of this roster on talent and coaching alone looks like a title contender. Kawhi Leonard is incredible. Paul George is really good. There are good role players up and down this roster. They might get James Harden without giving up too much. There’s so much to like. And yet…
What do we question? The same thing we question every year. The broken record. Is this team going to be healthy or good enough or both by the time the playoffs roll around? I’d love for there to be another issue regarding this team, but this is unfortunately where we sit again with the Clippers.
One random prediction: They don’t land Harden before the deadline.
Offensive Rating
114.0 (17th tied)
Defensive Rating
113.6 (17th)
Western
Tier 2 – Brink of Contention
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
What do we like? This team was so poised last season on offense, and that was a direct result of having Jalen Brunson running the show. A lot of stuff fell into place due to his presence, and the addition of Quentin Grimes to the starting lineup also helped. This team was deadly on offense and showed understanding of who it is against Cleveland in the postseason.
What do we question? Whether their defense is steady enough and if you can trust Julius Randle to replicate last season. The Randle part will be pretty evident early on, good or bad. He’s probably going to be fine, but his history is a bit of a roller coaster. The defense? We’ll find out if their 3-point defense was a trend or luck.
One random prediction: Jalen Brunson makes the All-Star Game.
Offensive Rating
117.0 (3rd tied)
Defensive Rating
114.2 (19th)
Eastern
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
What do we like? I know there are a lot of jokes about this team, and many of them are deserved. But do people realize how dominant their defense was when Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaden McDaniels were on the floor together? It would’ve led the NBA in defensive rating extrapolated out for the entire season. They have a lot to figure out with the offense, but their defense should be a regular-season strength.
What do we question? Is this actually the right fit around Edwards? If Towns is able to consistently stretch the floor and open up space for Ant to operate, they should be passable enough on offense to keep winning games. The Wolves can’t clog up driving lanes and must take much better care of the ball.
One random prediction: Anthony Edwards wins All-Star MVP.
Offensive Rating
113.3 (23rd)
Defensive Rating
113.1 (10th tied)
Western
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
What do we like? Despite the flop in the playoffs, this was a very good team last season. They had the best regular-season defense and were top 10 in offense. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are so good defensively. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are so good on offense. And they added much needed wing depth this offseason.
What do we question? If this is the right makeup for the postseason. The Knicks exposed some real concerns for the Cavs, especially when it came to Mitchell’s postseason demons following him from Utah. They might need more Garland than Mitchell in those situations. And they need to hope Max Strus isn’t one of those Miami diamonds the Heat were right not to commit big money to.
One random prediction: Cleveland finishes with a top-three seed in the East.
Offensive Rating
115.5 (7th tied)
Defensive Rating
109.9 (1st)
Eastern
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
What do we like? The Grizzlies have been a regular-season winning machine regardless of who is available the last couple years. Ja Morant, for all of his “controversies” away from the court, is still an MVP candidate when he’s playing. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane are really good, and they picked up Marcus Smart to replace Dillon Brooks. The Grizzlies still have a great coach and a lot of positives.
What do we question? Can they get out of their own way? JJJ fouls too much. The Grizzlies lost a couple of key contributors in Tyus Jones and Brooks, so they must find chemistry with their replacements. And now Steven Adams is out for the season. Morant is missing the first 25 games of the season. Then, who knows how he returns?
One random prediction: Morant shoots league average or better from 3-point range upon returning.
Offensive Rating
114.7 (11th)
Defensive Rating
110.7 (3rd)
Western
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
What do we like? We like Joel Embiid and where Tyrese Maxey is going. Embiid is the reigning MVP and made this team look a lot more dangerous in the regular season than they ended up being by the postseason. Maxey is a scoring machine primed to take another leap. That’s a good two-headed monster to throw at opponents, and there are some really good role players for Nick Nurse to deploy.
What do we question? The James Harden-Daryl Morey situation will get only more and more awkward until being resolved with a trade. The Sixers are going to have to call someone’s bluff at some point, and they may need ownership to step in to force a move. Everything moving forward must be about keeping Embiid happy so he doesn’t look elsewhere.
One random prediction: Harden is traded before 2024 hits.
Offensive Rating
117.0 (3rd tied)
Defensive Rating
112.7 (8th)
Eastern
Tier 3 – Playoff Teams
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What do we like? This is such a good team when they’re healthy. When healthy, Willie Green has them scoring efficiently and defending at a high level. A healthy Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram combination is nearly impossible to defend. The roster is filled out with important role players who do a great job of stepping up. A healthy Pelicans squad can be a major threat in the West.
What do we question? The health of Williamson and Ingram. Williamson missed 53 games last season. Ingram had 37 absences. Williamson missed the entire season in 2021-22, and Ingram sat out 27 games that year. Everything comes down to whether or not these two can stay on the court, especially Williamson.
One random prediction: Pelicans finish top 10 in both offense and defense.
Offensive Rating
113.8 (20th tied)
Defensive Rating
112.0 (6th)
Western
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What do we like? Most things with this team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is catapulting up player rankings. Chet Holmgren makes his debut as a potential difference-maker right away. And this team is loaded with young role players who bought into Mark Daigneault’s defensive system last season. The Thunder finally let the team play the entire campaign, and it resulted in a fun Play-In appearance.
What do we question? As much positivity as there is with this team, they were still below .500 last season and terrible on the boards. The below-.500 thing probably fixes itself with this team being healthy and on an upward trajectory. But do the Thunder have enough size to grab key defensive rebounds? Will Holmgren fix that by himself? How do they combat big frontcourts?
One random prediction: Josh Giddey has a dozen triple-doubles. Full disclosure: I tried this last year, when he had four – sticking with it!
Offensive Rating
114.2 (16th)
Defensive Rating
113.2 (12th tied)
Western
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What do we like? This was a really good team before Tyrese Haliburton got injured. The Pacers have a really good offense when he’s on the court. And the support staff seems to fit with how Rick Carlisle wants this team to play. Even without knowing Buddy Hield’s future on the roster, I still like how Indy balances things out on offense. Bennedict Mathurin taking a step forward in Year 2 could be the key.
What do we question? This team was awful defensively. Myles Turner couldn’t clean everything up. And they might be relying on a rookie in Jarace Walker to help pull things together with Turner on that end of the floor. Hopefully Bruce Brown Jr. can calm things down on that end of the floor, too. The Pacers must collectively rebound to end possessions.
One random prediction: Haliburton averages 25 points and 10 assists per game.
Offensive Rating
113.8 (20th tied)
Defensive Rating
117.1 (26th)
Eastern
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What do we like? From a talent standpoint, the backcourt of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving is mind-blowing. Imagining having to stop one of those guys, let alone both of them, induces stress. The Mavs were actually good in the little action with them both on the floor (plus-4.2 net rating). But they didn’t have depth to keep that going when one or both of them sat down. There’s a lot of scoring and shooting here.
What do we question? I’m not sure the rest of this supporting cast is good enough, especially on the defensive end. How will this team stop anybody out there? Unless Dereck Lively II is that good defensively right away, where do the Mavs go for getting stops? Which lineup can they employ? Or are they banking on Kyrie and Luka being so dominant on offense that defense doesn’t matter?
One random prediction: Kyrie plays at least 70 games for the first time since 2016-17.
Offensive Rating
115.9 (6th)
Defensive Rating
116.1 (25th)
Western
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
What do we like? I love the talent and depth for this Hawks team. The idea of Quin Snyder coaching them pulls it all together. Trae Young has plenty of things to work on, but he’s still one of the most talented offensive players in the world. Dejounte Murray is a really good backcourt partner, and this team has plenty of pieces to put together a good defense under Snyder. The Hawks have the talent to be a top-six team in the East.
What do we question? Their focus and buy-in with coaches doesn’t have a great track record. A roster with Clint Capela, Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter and Onyeka Okongwu shouldn’t be a bottom-10 defense. This team should be more well-rounded, and it’s not because of leadership issues throughout the roster and organization. Can that be fixed this year?
One random prediction: Trae Young becomes the fourth player in NBA history to average 30 points and 10 assists per game.
Offensive Rating
115.5 (7th tied)
Defensive Rating
115.4 (22nd)
Eastern
Tier 4 – Play-In Tournament Teams Or Better
Tier 5 – Looking to make the Play-In
What do we like? I will not let go of the fact the Magic were incredible over the final two-thirds of last season. Orlando was a super young team and went 29-28 with the sixth-best defense over the season’s final 57 games. Paolo Banchero is the real deal. Franz Wagner is a great running mate for him. And the Magic built a lot of good tendencies after their slow start.
What do we question? What if that was all a fluke? What if they surprised opponents last season and those teams are more ready for them this season? The backcourt is still a massive question mark, and we don’t know if Anthony Black and Jett Howard can contribute right away. Orlando needs to be far more consistent on offense, which is tough for such a young core.
One random prediction: Banchero averages 25 points per game.
Offensive Rating
111.3 (26th)
Defensive Rating
113.7 (18th)
Eastern
Tier 5 – Looking to make the Play-In
What do we like? I still like this roster quite a bit, and I’m in for anything that is building around Scottie Barnes. The Raptors must figure out what they want to be, especially after losing Fred VanVleet. They abandoned needing only 6-9 guys by reacquiring Jakob Poeltl last season. A more traditional approach all season could settle things down in a way they struggled with last season.
What do we question? Media Day left me questioning this team a lot, given the weird energy between Masai Ujiri’s comments and Pascal Siakam’s response about selfish play on the team. The Raptors are trying but failing to move Siakam. I just don’t know if this team has enough to overcome any down times this season. I like the talent but not the vibes emanating from Toronto so far. And the Raptors just couldn’t make shots last season (27th in true shooting percentage).
One random prediction: Siakam gets moved before the deadline.
Offensive Rating
114.6 (12th tied)
Defensive Rating
113.1 (10th tied)
Eastern
Tier 5 – Looking to make the Play-In
What do we like? Utah had a fun team last season and has since added some intriguing young talent. The Jazz opted not to outright tank, which made them really dangerous in the first half of the season. This team can score with anybody, added John Collins, and has Lauri Markkanen, who cemented himself as a good second option, at worst. Utah will be tough to handle most nights once again.
What do we question? If this team can stop anybody. Walker Kessler is a really good defensive anchor so early into his career, but who are the team’s other reliable defenders? Kris Dunn and maybe Talen Horton-Tucker? Rookie Taylor Hendricks at some point. But this will be a team that gives up a lot of points if Wil Hardy can’t find a system.
One random prediction: Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collins combine for 70 points per game.
Offensive Rating
115.3 (9th)
Defensive Rating
116.0 (23rd tied)
Western
Tier 5 – Looking to make the Play-In
What do we like? Let’s say everybody is healthy and locked in. A defense powered by Nicolas Claxton, Ben Simmons and Mikal Bridges will be a nightmare for opponents. There’s so much Jacque Vaughn can do on that end of the floor. And on offense, Bridges could easily find himself in the All-Star Game if he’s giving 20-plus every night. This could be a sneaky fun team.
What do we question? Ben Simmons. The preseason for him looked really encouraging, and getting that version of Simmons all season long would go a long way in pushing this team toward being competitive in the East’s second or third tiers. But Simmons has not given us much to extend him a line of credit here. He’ll have to prove it.
One random prediction: Simmons knocks down 10 3-pointers this season. He has five in his career.
Offensive Rating
114.6 (12th tied)
Defensive Rating
113.5 (15th tied)
Eastern
Tier 5 – Looking to make the Play-In
Tier 6 – Not tanking yet but maybe someday
What do we like? This is a team with good scorers and a good defense. DeMar DeRozan is still one of the league’s most respected players. Zach LaVine can still pour it on defenders. And this team’s defense ranked fifth last season, even if its personnel doesn’t look like it should have.
What do we question? Was that defense last season real? Will this team blow it all up before the deadline? Is there an actual direction? Will Billy Donovan be the coach all season? I just don’t know what to do with this stage of the Bulls. If they get off to a slow start, this could all be turned on its head, which is probably what should happen.
One random prediction: DeRozan gets traded before the deadline.
Offensive Rating
112.8 (24th)
Defensive Rating
111.5 (5th)
Eastern
Tier 6 – Not tanking yet but maybe someday
What do we like? All of this young talent with Ime Udoka directing everything. No offense to Stephen Silas, but he just couldn’t get this done. Now, they’ll have more veterans and a coach with a short but successful track record. It won’t all be fixed right away, but Udoka will preach and practice on-court accountability for these guys. Their focus will be immensely better compared to last season.
What do we question? Is this team going to be able to score efficiently? There are many moving parts as Udoka finds the rotation he trusts: a lot of individual talent that didn’t play well as a cohesive unit last season, and adding two key veterans who both shot less than 40 percent from the field. There’s a lot to like here, but the Rockets need some time.
One random prediction: Dillon Brooks reaches 20 technical fouls.
Offensive Rating
110.5 (27th)
Defensive Rating
118.6 (29th)
Western
Tier 6 – Not tanking yet but maybe someday
What do we like? Victor Wembanyama. No offense to the rest of the team – because there is talent there – but we’re just paying attention to what Wemby does to begin his highly anticipated career. Look at what he’s been doing in the preseason. Half of it doesn’t even appear to be real. It might be some AI simulation we’re not aware is happening. He’s must-see television all year.
What do we question? How much of a difference Wemby makes in this team’s competitive levels. This Spurs squad was obliterated on most nights last season. Do these young role players have an easier time around Wembanyama? We don’t expect them to win a lot of games, but they can’t get blown out like they did last season.
One random prediction: Wembanyama finishes third in DPOY voting.
Offensive Rating
109.7 (29th)
Defensive Rating
119.6 (30th)
Western
Tier 6 – Not tanking yet but maybe someday
What do we like? There’s a ton of young talent on this roster, and a healthy Cade Cunningham could pull it all together. I don’t think it’s far-fetched to think this team can be in the Play-In hunt at the end of the year. Monty Williams must focus a lot of young energy, but he can do it. Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey should be fun for Pistons fans.
What do we question? If there is enough veteran leadership to keep the youth focused. That’s the challenge for Monty. I’m not sure Bojan Bogdanović and Joe Harris are those guys. Maybe Alec Burks is? Possibly Monte Morris? For the most part, this team doesn’t have that veteran, vocal leader.
One random prediction: Cunningham averages 20-7-7 this season. Only two players (Jokić, Dončić) did so in 2022-23.
Offensive Rating
109.9 (28th)
Defensive Rating
117.8 (27th)
Eastern
Tier 6 – Not tanking yet but maybe someday
What do we like? Maybe the Wizards will end up sending some guys out, but I actually think this is a fun and decently competitive roster. Jordan Poole is a highlight reel and scoring machine. Tyus Jones finally gets to run a team full-time. Kyle Kuzma is coming off a career year, and Daniel Gafford is a fun interior option. They might be Jazz-esque from last season.
What do we question? They may get trounced each week, so we don’t know how competitive any of this talent will be. It’s very possible they start moving parts for assets and the season is a complete wash for them. Can they stop anybody? Can they score efficiently?
One random prediction: Jordan Poole leads the league in scoring.
Offensive Rating
113.7 (22nd)
Defensive Rating
114.9 (21st)
Eastern
Tier 6 – Not tanking yet but maybe someday
What do we like? Starting the next era with Scoot Henderson immediately at the helm. Henderson, alone, is plenty of reason to watch this team on League Pass at the end of every basketball night. Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons are fun, too.
What do we question? Who they should trust as their big man. DeAndre Ayton has the confidence, but he also has had a tumultuous couple of years and needs to refocus. Robert Williams III could win DPOY most years, but his knee might not hold up. Who emerges as the big guy for their future?
One random prediction: Scoot Henderson leads all rookies in scoring.
Offensive Rating
114.0 (17th tied)
Defensive Rating
118.0 (28th)
Western
Tier 6 – Not tanking yet but maybe someday
What do we like? LaMelo Ball is still an All-Star and a special talent. Brandon Miller might also be fun right away. There’s solid talent on this team, but it’s about it all being available at the same time.
What do we question? If this team can be any good on either end of the floor. Steve Clifford is a smart coach with defensive scheming, and he’s not a dinosaur when it comes to offense. But this team is pretty rough on both ends of the floor. The offense could be better.
One random prediction: LaMelo’s career-high for made 3-pointers in a season is 220. He’ll make 250 this season.
Offensive Rating
108.4 (30th)
Defensive Rating
114.7 (20th)
Eastern
Tier 6 – Not tanking yet but maybe someday
(Illustration: Sam Richardson / The Athletic)