The Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars meet in Week 2 on Sunday, Sept. 17 in a rematch of … [+]
Overreacting to Week 1 results or any NFL teams good or bad performance in a particular week is quite common in the betting marketplace. Bettors often fall victim to ‘recency bias’, and recall and react to what they saw most recently. Week 2 of the NFL season is filled with overreactions and many significant adjustments by bookmakers knowing that bettors are going to line up on the perceived good teams who did well opening week, and bet against the bad teams that failed to meet expectations.
But this season Week 2 also has a number of top teams and preseason Super Bowl favorites who lost in Week 1. That includes the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills, who are all favorites again in Week 2 and taking more bets.
As you compare the current betting lines to the Week 2 lookahead lines, you’ll also note the leading online sportsbooks adjustments in the odds and lines from Week 1 performances and results. Of note as well is the adjustments in the game totals over/under market, which are more significant after the 16 games in Week 1 averaged just 40.9 points per game. That’s down from 48.0 PPG and 42.1 PPG in Week 1 of the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
I personally track boxscore data, scoring and ATS results each week in spread sheets. In Week 1, betting favorites went just 8-8 straight up (SU) and 6-10 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs were profitable for the third straight season. Also, the low-scoring results in Week 1 produced just 4 ‘overs’ and 12 ‘unders’ in the totals market. Thus, FanDuel Sportsbook Week 2 totals show 8 of the remaining 15 games with over/under game totals less than 41 points.
It was another huge windfall and most profitable Week 1 for the sportsbooks and especially on the most bet games with the Lions beating the Chiefs 21-20 on Thursday and NY Jets beating the odds and Bills 22-16 in overtime on Monday Night Football despite QB Aaron Rodgers suffering a season-ending Achilles injury on the Jets first possession. The Rams smacking the Seahawks 30-13 was another big win for the sportsbooks and especially FanDuel, which took a $1 million bet on the Seahawks (-4.5).
Adding to the bettors woes and sportsbooks profits was the three prime time stand alone night games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday all staying under the game total, as more recreational and public bettors tend to bet those games over the total.
NFL Week 2 Odds
Following the Eagles 34-28 win over the Vikings (+6.5) Thursday night, Sunday’s Week 2 games present some intriguing matchups. The betting odds, lines and totals from FanDuel Sportsbook continue to adjust and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.
- Green Bay at Atlanta (+1.5), Total 40.5
- Chicago at Tampa Bay (-2.5), 40.5
- Seattle at Detroit (-4.5), 47.5 *
- Las Vegas at Buffalo (-8.5), 47 *
- LA Chargers at Tennessee (+3), 45.5
- Indianapolis at Houston (-1.5), 39.5
- Baltimore at Cincinnati (-3), 46.5
- Kansas City at Jacksonville (-3.5), 51.5 *
- San Francisco at LA Rams (+7), 44.5 *
- NY Giants at Arizona (+4.5), 39.5
- NY Jets at Dallas (-9.5), 38.5 *
- Washinton at Denver (-3.5), 39.5
- Miami at New England (+3), 46.5 SNF
- New Orleans at Carolina (+3), 40 MNF
- Cleveland at Pittsburgh (+2.5), 38.5 MNF
Types of bets and how to read the odds.
An asterisk in the games above indicates the most bet games and also the most money (handle) being bet on those contests. The highlighed links are the teams with the most money bet (KC, BUF, SF, DAL, DET), and those teams are all betting favorites.
The Rams and 49ers battle in 2023 Week 2 is one of six NFL division contests (AP Photo/Alex … [+]
Week 2 Betting Systems and Tips
In reviewing some Week 2 betting systems provided by the research team at Vegas Stats & Information Network, here are some profitable situations and systems for NFL Week 2. VSiN notes that there are always big performances (QB Tua Tagovailoa), surprise results (Lions), key injuries (QB Aaron Rodgers) and plenty more for the armchair quarterbacks to analyze. Unfortunately, what usually comes along with all of the analysis is overreaction.
I rely more on fundamental matchups while analyzing stats, injuries and situations and scheduling that can impact the games and betting market. But sensible systems can be profitable if you’re willing to also take a contrary approach to most fans and bettors thinking.
Here are five of 12 provided by the research team at the Vegas Stats & Information Network, and you can get more info, insight and analysis with explanations at VSiN.
1.) Week 2 teams playing as favorites OR underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points the prior week are 44-16 SU and 38-19-3 ATS (66.7%) since 2003 (+17 units, R.O.I.: 28.3%)
- Play ON teams: 49ers, Chiefs, Patriots, Falcons
2.) Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 34-16-1 SU and ATS (68%) since 2003 (+16.4 units, R.O.I.: 32.2%)
- Play ON teams: Browns, Bengals, Panthers, Rams, Colts
3. Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-14-1 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in Week 2 since ’04 (+9 units, R.O.I.: 30%
- Play ON teams: Rams, Panthers
4.) Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 14-7 SU and 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in Week 2 since 2007 (+7.4 units, R.O.I.: 35.2%)
- Play ON teams: Seahawks, Bears, Bengals, Giant
5.) Teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 have responded by going 45-25-2 ATS (64.3%) in Week 2 over the last 11 seasons, including 4-1-1 ATS in 2022 (+17.5 units, R.O.I.: 24.3%)
- Play ON eams: Seahawks, Panthers, Bears, Bengals, Steelers, Giants (Colts and Texans cancels as they play each other in Week 2)
Follow more NFL match-ups, odds and pro football betting news and predictions throughout the season as the popularity of sports betting continues to flourish and provide fans more excitement and engagement in the games.
You can bet on it.
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