The New York Jets (1-1) and QB Zach Wilson are home underdogs to division rival and winless New … [+]
Some big favorites headline the NFL Week 3 betting market. That includes Super Bowl favorites Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, who are both laying more than 12 points against winless Chicago and Arizona. The San Francisco 49ers are now 3-0 after they won and covered as double-digit favorites Thursday night to kickoff Week 3.
The Miami Dolphins are laying more than a touchdown at home versus Denver this week, and Miami leads the league with 462 yards per game offense and are one of nine undefeated teams into Week 3. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (+500) has shot up the MVP board and is now co-favorite with Patrick Mahomes to win the league’s Most Valuable Player award.
Two other big favorites in Week 3 include Super Bowl contenders Buffalo Bills (-6.5) on the road at Washington and Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at home vs Indianapolis. The Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) are a popular ‘survivor’ pick this week as they host hopeless Houston, who appears on their way to winning 4-games or less for the fourth straight season.
It’s no surprise that the Cowboys, Chiefs, Dolphins, Bills and Ravens are taking the most bets and money this week at the leading online sportsbooks, who continue to make line adjustments from the previous week’s lookahead lines. Key injuries, recent results and performances along with public perception affect the betting markets. That includes prop bets and over/under game totals, which averaged 49.75 points per game in the 16 Week 2 games – up nearly 10 points per game from the low-scoring opening week. The Week 2 over/under game totals went 13-3 – the most overs in a week since 1990,
The Week 3 schedule only has two division games including the New York Jets and New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium. But the projected weak division in the NFC South has three teams off to 2-0 starts. The New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all underdogs in Week 3 action as well with the Buccaneers one of four home underdogs this week in their Monday Night Football matchup with defending NFC champions Philadelphia Eagles.
NFL Week 3 Odds
Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.
- Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota (-1.5), Total 53.5
- Tennessee at Cleveland (-3.5), 39.5
- Houston at Jacksonville (-8), 44
- New England at New York Jets (+2.5), 36
- New Orleans at Green Bay (-1), 42.5
- Denver at Miami (-6.5), 48
- Buffalo at Washington (+6.5), 43.5
- Atlanta at Detroit (-3), 46
- Indianapolis at Baltimore (-8), 44
- Carolina at Seattle (-5.5), 42
- Dallas at Arizona (+12.5), 43
- Chicago at Kansas City (-12.5), 48
- Pittsburgh at Las Vegas (-2.5), 43 SNF
- Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (+5), 45.5 MNF
- Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati (-3), 43.5 MNF
Types of bets and how to read the odds.
Underdogs entered Week 3 winning 14 of 32 games with a very strong 20-11-1 against the spread (ATS) mark. The San Francisco 49ers won and covered as a 10.5 point favorite Thursday night to kickoff Week 3 action with a 30-12 win over the New York Giants.
NFL Week 4 Picks
If you like detailed stats, matchups and advanced analytics, check out some of the NFL game analysis at Dr. Bob Sports. Respected handicapper and statistics major Bob Stoll also passed along the insight and analysis below on a few of his select Week 3 picks, and you can review more on his site.
New England at New York Jets
- New York’s offense averaged a league-worst -0.43 EPA/play in Week 2 loss at Dallas. Quarterback Zach Wilson had 3 INT’s and just 170 passing yards on 27 pass attempts, and Wilson’s lack of ability to diagnose coverage kills him against the Patriots. Wilson is 0-4 versus Bill Belichick with a 6.6% interception rate.
- Patriots DT Christian Barmore had 48 pressures his last full season as a rookie (10th), and he’ll be collapsing the pocket all afternoon across from Jets C Connor McGovern, who has surrendered 6 pressures (3rd-most).
- Jets starting safety Tony Adams (hamstring) is now ruled out, and Patriots QB Mac Jones gets the return of RT Trent Brown from concussion protocol. Patriots RG Mike Onwenu only conceded 1 pressure in the 27 pass-blocking snaps he got last week. Patriots TE Hunter Henry leads all tight ends with 0.91 EPA/target, and Jones loves throwing to the middle of the field.
Our model favors the Patriots by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 36.6 points, and the Jets apply to a 67-131-4 ATS situation while the Patriots apply to a 41-14 ATS week 3 angle that plays on teams that are 0-2 ATS.
The Patriots are 0-2 for the first time since 2001 and have yet to hold a lead for a single minute this season. They have turned the ball over and fallen behind (16-0, then 10-0) against their first two opponents.
Nine teams including the Patriots are 0-2, and in this century, 100 NFL teams have started 0-3, and only one (2018 Texans) made the playoffs. The Chargers (0-2) play the Vikings (0-2) in the only Week 3 matchup of winless teams.
Dr. Bob also makes a case for Washington (+6.5 or 7) at home against the Buffalo Bills, noting “Our model favors the Bills by just 4.1 points, with a predicted total of 39.5 points, and Buffalo applies to a 20-71-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is based on last week’s 38-10 win over the Raiders.”
For additional NFL picks and insight, follow FanDuel’s NFL Week 3 betting guide along with all the NFL teams, news and odds as Week 3 provides more exciting and engaging watch and wager action.
You can bet on it.
MORE FROM FORBES