The NFL playoffs are finally here and my NFL projection model has found some value on the board for Wild Card Weekend. I stayed away from Week 18 and the variance that comes along with who is and isn’t playing and I think that fared well for me as I don’t think my leans would have done very well. Part of sports betting is knowing when to take a position and when to sit on the sidelines.
The season hasn’t been what we wanted it to be and Week 17 still stings as we had a couple good numbers go to waste, but that’s how it goes sometimes.
Season record: 44-45-1, -2.15 units, -2.2% ROI
Three plays and a teaser kick off the NFL playoffs. There is a small chance another play or two gets added before the games kick off this weekend. Both plays would be on Saturday so make sure to keep checking for updates to the article or follow me on X/Twitter for whenever any plays are added later in the week.
Wild Card best bets
Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. Over the course of the season, a half point here or five cents there will add up.
Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.
All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted. All odds from BetMGM and locked when the pick was made.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans under 44.5 (-110)
I’m a little nervous because I think C.J. Stroud and this Texans offense can pop off at any moment, but this might be a little big of a bad matchup for them. Stroud hasn’t been amazing versus cover-1 this year and that’s what the Browns will run most. And contrary to popular belief, Joe Flacco has not been good this year. Sure, he did have a good game against the Texans, but this isn’t an efficient offense with him under center.
Worst line to bet: Under 44 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers +10 (-110) at Buffalo Bills
This game is supposed to have 30 mph winds and gusts getting near 50. If that’s the case, laying double-digits seems like a tall task. I can’t get to this number even without the wind, but if the lake effect snow has any hand in this game, it’s going to make both teams go to the ground game. In what should be a low-scoring affair, the underdog getting a lot of points should have the benefit here. Yes, I’m terrified of the Steelers without T.J. Watt, but value is value. Here’s to hoping for strong winds!
Worst line to bet: Steelers +10 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams +3 (-110) at Detroit Lions
The Lions defense has been better than perceived, but I think the Rams offense is a little bit underrated here. When Kyren Williams has been on the field, the Rams have been playing like the second-best offense in the NFL only to the 49ers. I think Jared Goff and the Lions will have success but the loss of Sam LaPorta, or at the very least him not at 100 percent, will be a big loss for consistently knifing through the Rams’ defense.
Worst line to bet: Rams +3 (-115)
Teaser watch
I recommend playing two-team, six-point teasers at -120 odds, not higher.
Season record: 7-5, +1.0 units, +7.0% ROI
Houston +8.5/Tampa Bay +9
(Photo of Najee Harris: Randy Litzinger / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)