Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackle Adam Butler (69) and Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby … [+]
The NFL “Football Night in America” matchup on Nov. 12 is drawing more watch and wager interest. And especially for less scoring ahead of the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff. The Raiders and Jets are featured on NBC’s prime time Sunday Night clash from Las Vegas, where the Super Bowl will also be played on February on Feb. 11, 2024.
Both the Raiders (4-5) and Jets (4-4) are on the outside looking in at the NFL playoffs as the 2023 season hits the midpoint. But the Raiders showed more life and offense in last week’s 30-6 home win over the Giants under new interium head coach Antonio Pierce and rookie QB Aidan O’Connell. Ahead of the Week 10 games and Sunday Night Football, former NFL coach, player and current NBC on-site analyst Tony Dungy shared some thoughts on the Silver and Black Show.
“Being the head coach really is about getting everyone on the same page, and getting everyone to buy into the way you want to do it,” Dungy said when asked about players responding to new head coach Antonio Pierce. “There are plenty of ways to win X’s and O’s. But players win games, and if you get everyone working together, then you have a chance. And that’s what we saw last Sunday (vs. Giants).”
A look at the NFL Week 10 schedule and odds show the Jets as a slight -1 point favorite over the Raiders. FanDuel reported more than 60% of the spread money was on the Raiders ahead of the weekend, but that’s coming down with more injury news, and stronger numbers of New York bettors supporting the Jets.
The game total shows the Jets-Raiders game with the lowest total of the week at 36.5 points. Yet leading online sportsbooks are still reporting that this Jets vs. Raiders clash has among the most money bet ‘under’ the total in the over/under betting market.
Prime time NFL night games have also been a big profit producer for under the total bettors this season. The Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games have seen over/under results of 7-23, or 7 overs and 23 unders. That’s outpacing the 62% of all NFL games this season that have gone under the posted total by the bookmakers.
Jets vs. Raiders storylines and QB Aidan O’Connell
Beyond the moneyline odds, spread and over/under bets, fans and bettors will be adding many prop bets on the players and game. More will be available and updated on game day, but Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers has a tough matchup if he’s shadowed more by Jets star cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Garnder. Betting under Meyers receiving yards looks like a profitable play with Raiders rookie QB Aidan O’Connell also looking towards WR Davante Adams more in this matchup after he was targeted a team-high seven times in last week’s win.
Aidan O’Connell makes his third start, and showed more command and comfort getting the ball out quickly in his second start to lead the Raiders offense to their first scoring output above 18 points in their Week 9 win over the Giants, 30-6.
Following the firing of Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels, new interium coach Antonio Pierce immediately named O’Connell the new starting quarterback.
O’Connell had the fastest average time to throw of all starters (2.13 seconds) in Week 9, completing 80 percent of his throws on drop back passes. He’ll have to continue getting the ball out quickly against a highly-ranked Jets defense that’s allowing just 4.6 yards per play and 175 passing yards per game – both top 3 in the league. Now the Raiders will also be without its top offensive lineman, as RT Kolton Miller (shoulder) is sidelined for Sunday’s game.
“I was really proud of him,” interim offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree said of O’Connell’s Week 9 performance. “He did a really good job of getting the ball out on time as far as the passing game, and obviously the running game, it all ties together. For him, he handled certain situations really well. Sometimes throwing a ball away is the right thing to do within that timing of the play. He moved the ball around well; we had a bunch of different targets to different guys. But I thought his management of the game and staying in the game and not doing too much, not pressing, and just kind of letting it come to him was a big improvement.”
Bookmakers agree Raiders have virtually no home-field advantage
New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) runs the ball during the second half of an NFL football … [+]
Star running backs Breece Hall of the Jets and Josh Jacobs of the Raiders are expected to be featured in the Sunday Night matchup.
But the Jets have issues along the offensive line as well with starting tackles Billy Turner (finger) and Duane Brown (hip) both listed out on the injury report against the Raiders. Quarterback Zach Wilson has struggled, and he’ll be under more pressure from Raiders’ defensive dominator Maxx Crosby, whose 53 pressures leads the NFL.
Jets vs. Raiders stats and matchups
The Jets rank sixth in Football Outsiders total defensive DVOA (21st vs. the run and fourth vs. the pass). The Raiders rank 20th in total defensive DVOA (28th vs. the pass and 27th vs. the rush). Matchups need further evaluation as you review and consider key injuries.
Leading NFL handicapper and betting market influencer Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports adds more stats, insight and analysis on the Jets-Raiders matchup Sunday night.
A tip in gambling is a bet suggested by a third party who is perceived to be more knowledgeable about that subject than the bookmaker who sets the initial odds.
- The Jets are basically playing with two downs as New York’s offense has a historically low 22.1% third down conversion rate. No offense has had a lower conversion rate than the Jets since they started keeping track of the stat in 1978.
- New York backup RT Billy Turner surrendered 3 sacks last week and it could get worse on Sunday night as he is dealing with a hand injury that head coach Robert Saleh described as “concerning”. Maxx Crosby’s 53 pressures lead the NFL, and he will wreak havoc versus whomever the Jets have at right tackle.
- Zach Wilson’s saving grace could be the likely absence of Raiders cornerback Marcus Peters, who is allowing just 6.8 yards per target with 4 pass breakups this season. Backup CB Jakorian Bennett is surrendering 10.2 yards per target, and he will struggle versus New York WR Garrett Wilson.
- The Las Vegas offensive line conceded only 1 pressure last week and they rank 3rd in pass blocking efficiency this season.
- The Raiders should be well suited to contain a Jets pass rush with a 44.7% pressure rate (2nd-highest) but the concern will be at right tackle where Jermaine Eluemunor has surrendered 5 sacks (4th-most). New York edge defender John Franklin-Myers ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will line up across from Eluemunor.
- Jets cornerback DJ Reed is conceding 0.61 yards per cover snap (7th) and cornerback Sauce Gardner is allowing 0.67 yards per cover snap (9th). The pair will battle on the outside against Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, who are both among the 23 qualifying wide receivers with a success rate above 54%.
- Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is gaining 1.47 yards per route run (7th) but the All-Pro will be shut down as New York’s defense is conceding only a 33% pass success rate to running backs (3rd).
- Our model favors the Jets by 0.3 points with a predicted total of 34.6 points, and our lean is under the game total.
A teams play in the trenches and turnovers are key areas that impact more football games. But special teams and field position are often overlooked when analyzing matchups and betting, and could play a big part of the Jets-Raiders outcome with less scoring expected. The Raiders tandem of kicker Daniel Carlson and punter AJ Cole is perhaps the best in pro football. And Cole was somehow denied special teams player of the week after he set an all-time NFL record of 63.6 yards per punt in a win over the Giants.
Watch the kicking games and special teams more closely as you watch and wager on the games. Also, follow the Raiders, Jets and all the NFL teams, odds and betting news as the second half of the season kicks into gear and the push towards the playoffs begins ahead of the first Super Bowl in Las Vegas.
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