Jack Hughes at the top of the NHL scoring charts? The Los Angeles Kings legit Stanley Cup contenders?? Frederik Andersen for Vezina???
Heading into the 2023-24 NHL season, The Athletic asked its hockey staff for bold predictions, and two months later, some are holding up well while others look to have been a bit too bold.
Here’s a progress report on each prediction, from the writers ready to take a victory lap to the many who need a mulligan.
Preseason bold prediction: They will become Mason McTavish’s team
Outlook two months in: Still in play
Why? Strongly considered saying “lock it in” here before playing it a little safer. The 20-year-old center doesn’t wear a letter yet, but it feels like the Ducks are building him up to where one will be affixed to his jersey at some point. Could that be an “A” first or maybe the first “C” to be handed out since Ryan Getzlaf retired? McTavish is becoming a true force on the ice. His game has slipped of late, but his absence this week in losses at Colorado and Chicago due to an injury has shown how much Anaheim misses his presence. His defensive game can still use more polish, but he’s starting to become a more consistent offensive threat and the faceoff beast that he was in junior hockey. — Eric Stephens
Preseason bold prediction: Nick Schmaltz will lead the team in scoring
Outlook two months in: Still in play
Why? Schmaltz is second on the team in scoring, with 20 points in 25 games, which leaves him four points behind team leader and linemate Clayton Keller. Both have 10 even-strength points (10), but Keller’s edge is on the power play, where he has 14 and Schmaltz has 10. If both stay healthy, Keller should be able to hang on to his lead, though it’s close — and they figure to go down to the wire as the two primary point producers on the team. Each is having an excellent season, keying the team’s play with the man advantage, as the Coyotes unexpectedly contend for a playoff spot. — Eric Duhatschek
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Preseason bold prediction: Jeremy Swayman will become the No. 1 goalie
Outlook two months in: Still in play
Why? So far, so good. Swayman is at a .932 save percentage. Linus Ullmark is at .918. Swayman has been slightly better than Ullmark per the eye test and statistics. But both have made 13 appearances. The rotation has worked well for the Bruins. Coach Jim Montgomery even noted that he would consider rotating Swayman and Ullmark in the playoffs depending on the situation. — Fluto Shinzawa
Preseason bold prediction: Don Granato will win the Jack Adams
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? My thinking was if the Sabres cashed in on their preseason expectations and reached the playoffs, Granato had the narrative on his side to win the NHL’s coach of the year honors at the helm of the youngest team in hockey. Instead, the Sabres have regressed badly (10-14-2). Their offense ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. As a result, Granato is more on the hot seat than he is a contender for Jack Adams. — Matthew Fairburn
Preseason bold prediction: Nazem Kadri will hit 90 points
Outlook two months in: It’s a long shot
Why? In Kadri’s first eight games, he had one point. He did not look like himself, and the Flames as a whole lacked speed and cohesion. Since then, he’s looked better, playing with faster and younger players, but he’s still on only a 53-point pace. Ninety was an ambitious proclamation to make, but it made some sense at the time, considering how much rest he had gotten in the offseason; he figured to be healthy and ready to go. At this point, Kadri would need a massive hot streak to make this bold prediction plausible. — Julian McKenzie
Preseason bold prediction: Frederik Andersen will be a Vezina finalist
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? There is zero chance this is happening after Andersen was sidelined indefinitely with a blood clotting issue. While re-signing Andersen was a risk due to his injury history, no one could have seen this serious medical issue coming. His absence has put the Hurricanes’ depth in goal under a magnifying glass, and Carolina finds itself last in the league in save percentage (.873). — Cory Lavalette
Frederik Andersen has an .894 save percentage in six games and is out indefinitely. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Chicago Blackhawks
Preseason bold prediction: Corey Perry will become a beloved figure in Chicago
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? So this didn’t age well, and this breezy look around the league isn’t a particularly good place to get into why. For better fodder in future editions, here’s a new bold prediction: The Blackhawks will not trade Nick Foligno at the trade deadline and will in fact re-sign him over the summer to serve as a transitional captain until Connor Bedard gets the “C” in a year or two. It’s hard to overstate just how impressive Foligno has been — both on and off the ice. With Perry gone and Taylor Hall out for the season, Foligno almost instantly has become the clear voice and heart and conscience of the team. He’s been better than expected as a player, too, with enough skill to play on Bedard’s line from time to time and enough grit to form a dynamite third line with Jason Dickinson and Joey Anderson. If Foligno wants to go to a contender at the deadline, he’s earned that. But for what little return they’d get, the Blackhawks would be wise to keep him around as long as he’s willing. He’s been invaluable. — Mark Lazerus
Colorado Avalanche
Preseason bold prediction: The Avalanche will win a Game 7
Outlook two months in: Still in play
Why? This prediction doesn’t work so well for midseason check-ins, but the Avalanche look like a team capable of breaking their Game 7 drought, especially if they get some trade deadline reinforcements. Colorado is 16-7-2 and has as much star power as any club in the league. Jared Bednar’s club has been close to winning a Game 7 in recent years — it fell by a goal to Seattle last season and lost to Dallas in overtime in 2020 — and I’ll stick with my prediction that if the Avalanche get to another winner-take-all game, they’ll get a victory. — Peter Baugh
Preseason bold prediction: Patrik Laine will return to 40-goal production
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? The optimism has once again faded quickly in Columbus — and not just for the Blue Jackets as a team but for Laine personally. He seemed so motivated to change the narrative regarding his time in Columbus, but it’s been, sadly, more of the same this season. He’s produced way below expectations, missed a large chunk of the season and has even been a healthy scratch. With only five goals, there’s no way Laine will get to 40. Since Laine’s Jan. 23, 2021, trade to Columbus, he has played in 172 games and missed 71 others with injury or illness. He’s scored 63 goals in that span, tied for 91st in the league. — Aaron Portzline
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Dallas Stars
Preseason bold prediction: Miro Heiskanen will win the Norris Trophy
Outlook two months in: It’s a long shot
Why? Heiskanen is one of the best defensemen in the world and had a huge offensive breakout campaign last season in Pete DeBoer’s first year in Dallas. It felt natural that Heiskanen would build on it, but by Norris Trophy standards, his season has been too inconsistent. He often looks gassed and hasn’t been as effective on the power play. He’s currently outside of the top 20 in defensemen in scoring. — Saad Yousuf
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Preseason bold prediction: Dylan Larkin will become their first 40-goal scorer since 2009
Outlook two months in: Still in play
Why? Larkin has 11 goals in 23 games, which isn’t far off a 40-goal pace, so that part’s tracking along OK. But even if he does hit that milestone, becoming the Red Wings’ *first* 40-goal scorer since 2008-09 will be tricky, because Alex DeBrincat is well on pace to get there first, ahead of Larkin with 13 goals, on pace for 43. And with the recent arrival of Patrick Kane onto DeBrincat’s line, and their chemistry evident even in Game 1, DeBrincat now has to be the clear best bet to hit 40 among Red Wings. The big question: After not having a 40-goal scorer since Marian Hossa, is there any chance these Red Wings could have two? — Max Bultman
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Preseason bold prediction: Connor McDavid will score 70 goals
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? You should never say never when it comes to McDavid, but this is the exception. With nine goals, McDavid has no chance of becoming the first player since 1992-93 to score 70. By this time last year, McDavid had already scored 24 times en route to netting 64 goals and winning his first Rocket Richard Trophy. An early-season injury and some waning confidence slowed him down. At least those issues appear to be long gone now. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman
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Preseason bold prediction: Sergei Bobrovsky will be a problem
Outlook two months in: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
Why? Good news for the Panthers: Bobrovsky has been … fine? Good enough? Definitely not a problem. A .913 save percentage isn’t world-beating stuff, and he’s not stealing many games, but this is still looking like a miss, given the Panthers’ spot in the standings. — Sean Gentille
Los Angeles Kings
Preseason bold prediction: The Kings will be true Stanley Cup contenders
Outlook two months in: Still in play
Why? Why wouldn’t they be? They’ve just set the NHL record for most road wins to start a season by grabbing their 11th straight triumph away from the confines of Crypto.com Arena (where they’re a strangely pedestrian 5-4-3). And they’ve done it without needing a bunch of comebacks or overtimes/shootouts, although Tuesday’s third-period rally from 3-0 down in Columbus kept things rolling. Maybe the scoring throughout the lineup will dry up at some point, and maybe Cam Talbot won’t play at a Vezina level all season. But they’re deep, relentless, stingy and motivated after consecutive first-round exits at the hands of Edmonton. It’s a fiery combination. — Eric Stephens
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Preseason bold prediction: Brock Faber will make the All-Rookie team
Outlook two months in: Lock it in
Why? Brock Faber has absolutely been one of the most impactful rookies in the league. The 21-year-old defenseman plays a top-pair role, averaging more than 23 minutes per game (second on Wild to only Jonas Brodin). He’s on the penalty kill and has started to become a regular on the power play. The former University of Minnesota captain has 12 points (11 assists) and should be in the mix for the All-Rookie Team and maybe even for Calder Trophy finalists. — Joe Smith
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Move over Connor Bedard, welcome Wild’s Brock Faber and Marco Rossi to the Calder Trophy race
Brock Faber has quickly become a mainstay for the Wild, trusted to defend top NHL players. (Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
Preseason bold prediction: Kirby Dach will reach 70 points
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? Well, that ended quickly. Dach’s season lasted two games, a torn ACL and MCL forcing him to the sidelines until next fall. With the way he looked in training camp, I feel confident Dach would have made it there, and his presence would have made this Canadiens season quite different. But we’ll have to wait until next season to see if he’s ready to make that leap. — Arpon Basu
Preseason bold prediction: Juuso Parssinen will have 25 or more goals
Outlook two months in: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
Why? “Long shot” might have been the call before Parssinen picked up a power-play goal in Thursday’s win over Tampa Bay to get to five on the season. The general notion of him before the season was flawed, though — and based in part on the fact that he started as a wing on the Preds’ top line. He has moved around the lineup, centering other lines, and has had some lulls. But he has the skill set and is on pace for 16 goals, so it’s too early to call this. — Joe Rexrode
Preseason bold prediction: Jack Hughes will finish in the top three in the league in scoring
Outlook two months in: Still in play
Why? Hughes missing time with injury hurt his case to finish top-three in scoring … but with 33 points in 19 games, he’s still top-10 in points right now despite missing time. Hughes is also the most efficient scorer in the league in his minutes in all situations, with 4.97 points per 60. The challenge will be catching up to the likes of Nikita Kucherov and Artemi Panarin, who are right behind him in pace. And there’s the Connor McDavid factor, assuming he keeps jumping up in the scoring race after his slow start. But Hughes is very much in it still even after being sidelined. — Shayna Goldman
Preseason bold prediction: Ilya Sorokin will win the Vezina Trophy
Outlook two months in: It’s a long shot
Why? Sorokin has been good but not amazing — and he’d need to be to have a shot at a Vezina. His .911 save percentage is well above the league average, and he’s in the top 15 for goals saved above expectation, but the Islanders give up more shots and high-danger chances than anyone except San Jose; for Sorokin to have the sort of numbers the NHL’s general managers would need to see to vote for him, they’d have to be off the charts. — Arthur Staple
Preseason bold prediction: Kaapo Kakko will score 30 goals
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? Oof. This was a major swing and a miss. Even if Kakko weren’t currently sidelined indefinitely with an ugly lower-body injury, this wasn’t going to be a breakout season. He had two goals in 20 games before the injury. Maybe if Kakko can come back and contribute over the final few weeks of the season, it won’t feel like as bad of a prediction, but man, way off. — Arthur Staple
Preseason bold prediction: Brady Tkachuk will have more points than penalty minutes
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? Tkachuk is off to a terrific start offensively this season, on pace for a 50-goal campaign. But he’s also ranked third in the league with 50 penalty minutes already and is easily trending toward finishing well above the career-high 126 he racked up last season. The bulk of Tkachuk’s penalty minutes have come in just two games this season. He picked up 19 on Oct. 24 against the Sabres and 16 on Nov. 27 against the Panthers. If those two games weren’t on his resume, he would have a terrific chance of making this prediction a reality. — Ian Mendes
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Preseason bold prediction: Owen Tippett will score 40 goals
Outlook two months in: It’s a long shot
Why? Tippett has been decent, with eight goals through his 26 games, but unless he gets on a major heater, 40 goals isn’t going to happen. That said, he’s still having an impact most nights with his speed and his release. Tippett leads the Flyers with 87 shots and is also first with 27 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. He at least still has a chance at his first career 30-goal campaign. — Kevin Kurz
Preseason bold prediction: Drew O’Connor will score 20 goals
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? As with everything for these Penguins, optimism was running amok coming into the season. O’Connor is big but plays small. Maybe that’s because of a late-stage growth spurt during his developmental days. Whatever the case, his inability to consistently get to scoring areas hurts his offense (two goals in 26 games), and his shot isn’t good enough to score from the perimeter. Injuries could continue to afford him top-six positioning with the Penguins, and the team’s very adept at generating chances at five-on-five, but O’Connor potting 10 would be a pleasant surprise at this point. — Rob Rossi
San Jose Sharks
Preseason bold prediction: Filip Zadina will score 22 goals
Outlook two months in: It’s a long shot
Why? Early on, it looked promising for Zadina as he scored goals in two of his first three games with his new club. This prediction isn’t looking so hot now, though. The 24-year-old winger has one goal in 19 games since and is generating no offense beyond that with just two assists for the season. His expected goals for per 60 minutes (1.69) and expected goals against per 60 (4.16), per Evolving-Hockey, stick out on a team with poor metrics as a whole, and he hasn’t done much with the meager ice time he’s gotten in two games since returning from injury. The bulk of the season remains, but time is starting to run out for the enigmatic forward. — Eric Stephens
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Seattle Kraken
Preseason bold prediction: Ryker Evans will play more than 60 NHL games
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? Evans made his season debut Thursday night, but time’s already out on him getting to 60 games. That said, the Kraken have struggled in multiple areas — defending the rush, generating offense — where Evans’ skill set immediately helps. On Thursday, he logged top-four minutes at five-on-five, and the Kraken outscored the Devils 1-0 in those minutes while outshooting them 11-4. Better late than never. Evans should be a mainstay on the Kraken blue line for the balance of the season. He’s ready and they need him. — Thomas Drance
Preseason bold prediction: Jordan Binnington will have a .915 save percentage
Outlook two months in: Still in play
Why? If we could have revisited this after the Blues’ 2-1 overtime win over Vegas on Monday, arguably Binnington’s best performance since Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final in 2019, the goalie was sitting at a .914 save percentage. Still, two months after making this prediction, I’ll gladly take a .912 mark, considering he was at .894 last season and .901 in 2021-22. The Blues’ defense has been better in front of Binnington this year, but he hasn’t been All-Star worthy. — Jeremy Rutherford
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Tampa Bay Lightning
Preseason bold prediction: Nick Paul will double his prior career high in scoring
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? Paul’s been held off the scoresheet for nine straight games, which may put a kink in what could have been a season of career highs. His role on the top power-play unit may have put in him a position to succeed on the scoresheet, but this was an overestimation. With 11 points in 28 games, Paul’s on pace for a 32-point season across 82 games. That would be a slightly worse pace than last year’s 32 in 80. So to think he could double that at this point is unrealistic. — Shayna Goldman
Preseason bold prediction: They will trade John Klingberg
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? It’s not happening because Klingberg will soon undergo season-ending hip surgery. So while I wasn’t right about a trade, nor about Klingberg producing offensively and playing big minutes, I was right to suspect that his defensive issues would be a problem. I didn’t know about the hip issues that would ultimately doom his season and impact his play. It won’t be a trade with Klingberg per se, but the Leafs will end up using his long-term-injured-reserve cap space to acquire someone better suited to their needs on defense. — Jonas Siegel
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Preseason bold prediction: Their penalty kill will finish in the top half of the league — and lead the league in short-handed goals
Outlook two months in: It’s a long shot
Why? The Canucks would need to significantly improve their four-on-five form to cash this prediction. The club ranks 27th in the NHL in penalty-killing percentage, and even that poor kill rate overrates their abilities short-handed. Based on the underlying profile of the Vancouver penalty kill, it’s probably more like a bottom-three NHL team on the PK, buoyed by outrageously good goaltending. The club has had some success scoring short-handed, with four goals (that’s only three short-handed goals off the league lead), so that part of the prediction could yet come to pass. — Thomas Drance
Adin Hill hasn’t had any trouble picking up in 2023-24 where he left off in the 2023 playoffs. (Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
Vegas Golden Knights
Preseason bold prediction: Adin Hill will lead the NHL in save percentage
Outlook two months in: Lock it in
Why? Through the first quarter of the season, Adin Hill leads the NHL with a .935 save percentage. That includes all goalies who have appeared in at least eight games this season. Hill also leads the NHL in goals saved above expected (12.6) and ranks second in goals against average (1.87). He’s been outstanding, as has the Golden Knights team defense in front of him. There’s still a lot of hockey to be played, but I see no reason for Hill’s strong play not to continue once he returns to the lineup. He’s missed the past three games with a lower-body injury. — Jesse Granger
Preseason bold prediction: Rasmus Sandin will have a breakout season
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? It’s possible, and maybe probable, that Sandin plays better from here on out. In some ways, it’d be tough to be much worse. Five points in 23 games is ugly. Sandin is still playing huge minutes, and going from the third pair in Toronto was always going to be a tough call, but no, the breakout will have to wait. — Sean Gentille
Preseason bold prediction: Gabriel Vilardi will double his career-high in points
Outlook two months in: Not happening
Why? Vilardi was injured in a collision with old teammate Blake Lizotte that he was still incensed about over a month later when he returned to the lineup. He has been limited to two assists in seven games and he’s still getting back into the swing of things on a secondary scoring line with Cole Perfetti and Alex Iafallo. He would need to score 79 points in his remaining 57 games to double his previous career high and no longer enjoys the minutes or deployment — he started the season on the top line with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor — that made such a bold prediction worth the attempt. Getting 64 points in those 57 games would make him a point-per-game player — the same kind of explosive step forward I predicted — but that seems well out of reach, too. — Murat Ates
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Looking for more coverage on all 32 NHL teams? Check out this episode of “The Athletic Hockey Show” with Hailey Salvian, Max Bultman and Sean Gentille.
(Top photos of Jack Hughes and Connor McDavid: Elsa and Patrick Smith / Getty Images)