Wednesday night’s tilt with the Toronto Maple Leafs is a must-win NHL game for the Ottawa Senators.
That may sound like hyperbole, given that it is Nov. 8 and there are still more than 70 games left to be played after this one, but when you look at the bigger picture it’s hard not to come to the conclusion that the Senators desperately need these two points.
Not only are the Sens sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic Division with eight points from their first 10 games, but they’ve also had plenty of injuries and off-ice drama to contend with already.
All of this has led to a perfect storm that could cost head coach DJ Smith his job if Ottawa doesn’t start winning games soon.
The Senators are a +145 underdog in Toronto on Wednesday night.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
While they’ve been a bit unlucky with injuries, the process for the Senators also hasn’t been that good this season.
Ottawa is +2 in 5-on-5 goal difference, but the expected goals data from Natural Stat Trick is a lot uglier at -5.
In other words, the Sens are a candidate to negatively regress at 5-on-5.
Most of Ottawa’s poor statistical portfolio stems from porous defensive numbers, which shouldn’t be that surprising considering the Sens’ current injury crisis.
Thomas Chabot is out long term, Artem Zub has been out of the lineup for a handful of games and Erik Brannstrom has also been on the sidelines with a concussion.
The good news for Ottawa is it won’t be the only struggling defense on the ice Wednesday night.
The Maple Leafs were one of the sturdiest defensive teams in the NHL over the past couple of seasons, but this year has been an absolute mess for Toronto, who is giving up the seventh-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Betting on the NHL?
Neither one of these teams inspires much confidence right now, but Toronto’s defensive numbers make it a very vulnerable favorite against a desperate team that is not having issues scoring goals.
The Sens are struggling, but this is a good buy-low opportunity on a team with more talent than this number implies.
The Bet: Ottawa Senators +145 (BetMGM Sportsbook)