In the third quarter of this year, Hong Kong restaurant receipts grew 12.5 per cent to HK$27.1 billion (US$3.46 billion) from the same period in 2022.
But Chui said the strong Hong Kong dollar was driving Hongkongers across the border.
“Restaurants have offered various promotions over the past year and strived to improve the quality of food and service,” he said.
“However, in places like Shenzhen, there are more attractive and higher-quality options, which make our lives more difficult.”
The Immigration Department has estimated that more than 9 million people will cross the border both ways between Hong Kong and mainland China during the Christmas and New Year holidays, with more than four-fifths using land crossings.
Hotpot restaurant owner Ben Yeung Chi-keung described the chill this season, with miserable bookings for the winter solstice on Friday and Christmas Day despite his HK$1 offer for a speciality broth which usually cost HK$220 or more.
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Sakanaichi Hotpot in Tsim Sha Tsui has 25 tables and eight staff, but had only four reservations for both days, a big drop from last year, when Hong Kong eateries were still subject to Covid-19 restrictions.
The restaurant was only 60 per cent full on the winter solstice with walk-in diners.
“I hope to see walk-in diners during the holidays, business has been really bad over the past two months,” he said.
His worst day in recent times was the third Saturday of November, when there were only two tables of customers who paid a total of HK$2,000.
Yeung said he expected his Christmas takings to plunge significantly compared with last year.
Other restaurant operators said Shenzhen’s pull was so strong that their promotional offers were not drawing customers.
Charles Lam Tze-ching, co-owner of Western steak house Forkers in Wan Chai, said that unlike before the pandemic, he did not raise prices for the restaurant’s Christmas menu.
Instead, he cut the prices of main courses by HK$100 since the beginning of the month.
A five-course dinner with prime strip-loin steak or duck confit and unlimited servings of salad was now HK$498 per person, compared with HK$598 before.
But so far, the 55-seat restaurant has seen only 28 loyal patrons making reservations on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Hong Kong holiday exodus as 1 million people leave city in 2 days
Hong Kong holiday exodus as 1 million people leave city in 2 days
“Back in the day, I marked up prices and printed a new menu in red for Christmas. Now we are not even half full on weekends for dinner,” he said.
“You can’t help thinking that people have gone to mainland China or are just staying home and cooking for themselves, which is bad news for us.”
Alvin Lam Chin-cheung, owner of Hirou Tsuki izakaya, a Japanese-style casual establishment in San Po Kong which also serves Thai food, said that as of Monday he had not yet received a single reservation for the Christmas holidays.
“Our menu prices are already very reasonable and there is not much room for discounts to entice diners,” he said.
“We hope to minimise losses by relying on walk-in customers and party catering orders from loyal diners and our promotions on social media.
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Dreaming of a Hong Kong Christmas? City rolls out festive markets, decorations
He said he faced a dilemma deciding whether to spend more to promote his restaurant on social media, as posting advertising videos cost HK$200,000 on YouTube channels.
“Even if a video helps generate HK$200,000 in business, I would still lose money in the end. And there is no guarantee it will work as many people have chosen to travel already,” he said.
Among those heading off is project manager Yung Wai-cheong, 37, who said leaving the city over the holidays was a no-brainer because a Christmas meal with his girlfriend could cost him at least HK$1,400 in Hong Kong.
“I’ve booked a hotel in Shenzhen for one night on Christmas Day for HK$1,100. I don’t expect to spend more than HK$1,200 for food for both of us in two days,” he said.