DEMENTIA cases are set to hit 1.7million by 2040 in England and Wales — over 40 per cent more than previously thought.
The numbers mean the “burden on health and social care might be considerably larger” than health chiefs are currently planning for, researchers said.
Their study analysed data from British households from 2002 to 2019, finding the trend in falling cases reversed in 2008.
Dr Yuntao Chen, of University College London, described the results as “shocking”, adding: “This will have a devastating effect on the lives of those involved.”
He said: “Continued monitoring of the incidence trend will be crucial in shaping social care policy.”
More than 944,000 Brits currently live with dementia, but experts predict rates will rise because of the country’s ageing population.
Other risk factors include smoking, drinking too much, high cholesterol and blood pressure, obesity and diabetes.
Previous research predicted the number of adults living in England and Wales with the condition would increase from 770,000 in 2016 to 1.2million in 2040.
The latest study, published in The Lancet Public Health, updated this figure by looking at rates over a 19-year period.
The dementia incidence rate decreased by 29 per cent between 2002 and 2008, but rose a quarter between 2008 and 2016.
If cases continue to increase at that rate, the number of Brits with the condition will have nearly doubled by 2040.
Professor Eric Brunner, of UCL, said: “Our research has exposed that dementia is likely to be a more urgent policy problem than previously recognised.
“Not only is the ageing population a major driver of the trend in England and Wales but also the number of people developing dementia within older age groups is increasing.
“We don’t know how long this pattern will continue but the UK needs to be prepared so we can ensure that everyone affected is able to access the help and support that they need.”
Hilary Evans, of Alzheimer’s Research UK, said the research “highlights the enormous threat dementia poses” for the public and the healthcare workforce.
James White, of the Alzheimer’s Society, said: “Dementia is the biggest health and social care issue of our time.
“These statistics are a stark reminder that, without action, the individual and economic devastation caused by dementia shows no sign of stopping.”
The Department of Health and Social Care added: “We want every person with dementia to receive high quality, compassionate care, regardless of age, gender, or background.
“The NHS is committed to improving diagnosis rates, access to new treatments through increased funding, working together and making use of the latest technology.”