The headliner this Saturday is the Red River Rivalry, which is carrying more weight than ever.
According to the KFord Ratings, a win for Texas would boost its College Football Playoff odds from 36 percent to 47 percent.
But a win for the rival Sooners would be even more impactful, jumping OU’s odds of a playoff berth above 50 percent in the event of a Crimson and Cream victory.
Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas)
Texas -5.5
This soon-to-be SEC rivalry rides under the Big 12 banner one last time on Saturday at the Texas State Fairgrounds.
Texas enters as the nation’s top team in terms of “Strength of Record,” while Oklahoma trumps its rivals in terms of ESPN’s FPI rankings and its Game Control metric.
Texas has looked fearsome, dumping Alabama by 10 and laying waste to a ranked Kansas team.
Quinn Ewers is living up to his enormous hype, and as a result, the UT offense is finally popping big plays with regularity.
Through five games, the Longhorns have hit 19 plays of 30-plus yards (fifth).
But it’s their defense that makes them both a national title threat and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.
They check in fourth in defensive success rate and bow their necks in the red zone (first).
This explains why they are second in Action Network’s power rankings.
I also have concerns about Oklahoma’s schedule, which to this point, has been less than rigorous.
Cincinnati and Iowa State look the part of Big 12 also-rans, SMU has regressed significantly on offense year-over-year, and Tulsa and Arkansas State fit the bill of cannon fodder.
The step up in class will be a shock for Oklahoma on Saturday.
That’s why I would not only play Texas laying the points, but I also would shop for an alternate number up to UT -10.
LSU at Missouri
Over 64.5
Let’s start with a trend in this game.
If you bet the over in all of LSU and Mizzou’s games thus far, you would be smiling ear to ear.
The over has cashed in nine of those 10 contests.
Both offenses are scorching and are piloted by experienced quarterbacks.
Among Power Five passers, LSU’s Jayden Daniels ranks ninth in terms of total QBR and Mizzou’s Brady Cook ranks 21st.
But the real reason this game should cruise past a total in the mid-60s are the secondaries involved.
Mizzou ranks 90th against the pass and 73rd in terms of explosive plays allowed through the air.
And Mizzou’s secondary is the far better unit between the two schools.
Brian Kelly’s Tigers are an unmitigated disaster defensively.
Betting on College Football?
LSU ranks 110th against the pass and 121st in explosive plays allowed.
The Bayou Bengals have already surrendered seven pass plays of 40-plus yards, tied for worst in the SEC.
Toss in electric receiving corps on both sides and I would play this total all the way up to 69.5.
Colorado State at Utah State
Colorado State -3
This column is undefeated when playing Colorado State games, so let’s go back to the well.
This game jumps out because the Utah State defense is anemic.
The Aggies rank 130th in defensive success rate, fail to generate a pass rush, and have surrendered 78 points in their last two games to UConn and James Madison.
Colorado State is protecting their quarterback for a change and as a result, Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is cooking.
The redshirt freshman has accounted for 10 TDs in his three starts, while targeting the very best receiving corps in the Group of Five.
There’s a reason this game has moved from USU -1.5 at the open to CSU -3.