Barbenheimer, with a combined box office tally of nearly $537 million worldwide this past weekend, has a lot to celebrate. Barbie and Oppenheimer have both exceeded expectations, thanks to strong reviews and word of mouth, many, many memes, and a level of excitement for returning to the theaters that we haven’t seen in a very long time.
When any film is as well reviewed and also as successful at the box office as these are, we have to wonder if it’s also about to embark on another treacherous journey: to the campaign trail. Oscar season doesn’t properly heat up until the fall, but both Oppenheimer and Barbie should now be considered strong contenders.
Universal’s Oppenheimer, an impeccably crafted, intense, and nontraditional biopic of the man who led the charge on creating the first nuclear weapons as director of the Manhattan Project, features several strong performances that feel like real contenders, starting with Cillian Murphy’s portrayal of J. Robert Oppenheimer. In supporting, Robert Downey Jr. could be on the way to his third Oscar nomination, delivering on a tricky role as Lewis Strauss, the former chairman of the US Atomic Energy Commission.
Christopher Nolan, who wrote and directed Oppenheimer, has been nominated for best director only once, for 2017’s Dunkirk. He has yet to win an Oscar, though he’s been nominated four other times as well: twice for original screenplay (Memento, Inception) and twice for best picture (Inception, Dunkirk). His films often win in the below-the-line categories, and Oppenheimer will be a real threat in those groups this year as well. Though there’s still much to be seen, best picture feels like a real possibility for this film that is at once epic and very personal, centered on a man who becomes deeply disturbed by his part in ushering in the nuclear age.
Barbie—a comedy about the world’s most famous doll—would, on the surface, seem like a stretch as an Oscar contender. But Greta Gerwig and her cowriter and partner, Noah Baumbach, have also made a film that’s both incredibly crafted and steeped in deeper meaning. Barbie (played by Margot Robbie, who also produced the film) is on a quest that explores feminism, the patriarchy, and motherhood, with a little existential crisis for good measure. Gerwig and Baumbach have four screenplay Oscar nominations between them, so a nod in that category feels like a real possibility. There’s already been some buzz on social media about Ryan Gosling, who is having the most fun playing Ken, deserving an Oscar nomination for his performance (it would be his third nomination).
We can expect Barbie to really compete in craft categories like costume design and production design—plus original song, thanks to “I’m Just Ken,” sung by Gosling. Actually, the Barbie soundtrack is packed with 17 original songs from the likes of Sam Smith, Billie Eilish, Dua Lipa, and Lizzo, meaning Warner Bros. could submit several for consideration. As for best-picture contention, comedies have a much steeper climb than dramas do—but it’s not impossible. If Barbie teaches us anything, it’s to not underestimate this doll as just a pretty face.
Both of these films may have an unexpected advantage this season as well: They were the two final movies to get full-fledged promotional tours and premieres before the actors strike began. If the strike continues deep into the fall or even through the end of the year—as many expect it to—many upcoming awards contenders will have to run campaigns without their stars on the red carpets and doing promotional work for the film.
And let’s not forget that the Academy is pretty keen on rewarding hits—both Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water earned best-picture nominations earlier this year. The success of Oppenheimer and Barbie at the box office will remain one of the biggest stories of the summer, if not year, and that’s something Academy voters may not easily forget.
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