An early-season rematch will determine a spot in this year’s Final Four when Tennessee and Purdue renew acquaintances in Detroit on Sunday afternoon. The Boilermakers are slight favorites over the Volunteers in the only “chalk” Elite Eight matchup.
These two met in late November in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational. Purdue won, 71-67, in a game that seems like a lifetime ago. This time, the stakes are considerably higher as the Boilermakers are aiming for their first Final Four berth since 1980; this is just the second time Tennessee has made it to the Elite Eight (2010).
Purdue has looked every bit the part of a No. 1 seed, winning its three tournament games by an average of 26.3 points. Two-time consensus All-American and Big Ten Player of the Year Zach Edey has taken his already stellar play to another level, averaging 26.7 points and 16.3 rebounds per game while shooting 67.4 percent from the field.
Edey is the Volunteers’ No. 1 concern, but he’s not alone. Braden Smith, another first-team All-Big Ten selection, nearly posted a triple-double — 14 points, eight rebounds, 15 assists — in the Sweet 16 win over Gonzaga, and it was fellow guard Fletcher Loyer who led the team in scoring (27 points) in the first meeting with Tennessee.
The Vols have their own consensus All-American and conference player of the year leading them in Dalton Knecht. The Northern Colorado transfer has taken full advantage of the extra year of eligibility due to the COVID-impacted 2020-21 season and now has Tennessee on the cusp of program history. Knecht put up 24 points in the win over Creighton, along with six rebounds and five assists. He’s only shooting 38.9 percent from the field during the tournament, which is a concern considering he’s the team’s primary scoring threat.
Very few players have carried the offensive load for their respective teams this season like Edey and Knecht, and it’s been no different in the Big Dance. Edey has been responsible for 30.3 percent of the Boilermakers’ points, with Knecht not far behind (28.6 percent). As entertaining as this All-American showcase should be, each will have to do more than just score to help his team win. To that end, Edey’s size (7-foot-4) could cause problems for the Vols on both ends of the court.
Simply put, the Boilermakers have been steamrolling opponents — shooting 53.6 percent from the field, 43.3 percent on 3-pointers, posting a +55 rebounding margin — to this point, whereas the Vols have had to work a little harder. Tennessee has a tough task ahead in trying to slow down Edey and company, but it’s not like a No. 1 seed hasn’t fallen already.
What: Midwest Region, Elite Eight
Tipoff time: 2:20 p.m. ET Sunday
TV: CBS
Location: Detroit
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Purdue vs. Tennessee odds
Odds are from BetMGM and update live.
Expert picks
Purdue vs. Tennessee projected scores
Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the outcome of each game in the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the men’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here are Austin’s projections for the Purdue vs. Tennessee point spread and total:
Projected point spread: Purdue -1.5
Projected total points: 147.5
Projected final score: Purdue 74.5, Tennessee 73
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Players to watch
Purdue
- Zach Edey, senior center, Big Ten Player of the Year, first-team All-Big Ten, All-Big Ten defensive team
- Braden Smith, sophomore guard, first-team All-Big Ten
Tennessee
- Dalton Knecht, senior guard, SEC Player of the Year, first-team All-SEC
- Zakai Zeigler, junior guard, SEC Defensive Player of the Year, first-team All-SEC, All-SEC defensive team
- Jonas Aidoo, junior forward, second-team All-SEC, All-SEC defensive team
More NCAA basketball tournament coverage
(Photo of Zach Edey: Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)