Let’s just start here with the Islanders, their general manager and their coach. Let’s just start here with the state of collective general managing in the NHL.
From the day Patrick Roy resigned as coach of the Avalanche on Aug. 11, 2016, to the day he was hired by general manager Lou Lamoriello to take over the Islanders on Jan. 20, 2024, NHL teams changed coaches 81 times.
Roy did not get a single interview.
Now, if Roy is able to lead the Islanders to the Stanley Cup, he would be deemed more of a miracle worker than he was when he carried the Canadiens to unexpected Cup championships in 1986 and 1993. As great a money goaltender as Roy was, he would be designated the greatest money coach in the game if he coaxes 16 playoff victories out of his team that finished 8-0-1 to clinch an invite to the dance.
But that’s not the point. The fact that the collection of GMs operated under such group-think in refusing to even sit down with one of the great winners of the modern era reflects about as well on the group as its embrace of the league’s dysfunctional and inequitable playoff format.
Before we get to that, though, the NHL came close to pulling off a final night to remember except it wasn’t the final night. The drama produced by dueling finishes on Tuesday in Philadelphia and Montreal that led to an unfortunately anti-climactic outcome would have been diminished if the Penguins, scheduled to play their finale the following night, had remained in the mix.
The season should end on the same day for every team, or certainly at least for every team in either conference if the league wants to stagger the start of the playoffs. When the season ends, a team — and its fans — should know whether they’re in the playoffs and not have to wait 24 or 48 hours for the result of a random game.
Better, too, that the games are all scheduled for the same opening faceoff — yes, television start-time conflicts, the bane of all social media critics — so that no coach has a competitive advantage in approaching strategic decisions such as pulling his netminder.
Hockey almost pulled off the final day of the 2011 Major League Baseball season when the Rays and Cardinals made the playoffs by both winning when the Red Sox and Braves both lost. Came close but the season actually ended with six games on Thursday after four games on Wednesday.
Shouldn’t the season end on a weekend?
In that case, of course, the playoffs wouldn’t be able to start on a weekend, as they do this Saturday with a pair of Eastern Conference matchups. This is the time to revisit the broken playoff format that penalizes the best teams in the league while catering to the lowest common denominator. That is Ninth Avenue’s way, after all.
The first round lines up reasonably well with one exception. That’s the 2-3 Central matchup between Winnipeg and Colorado, the clubs with the second- and fourth-best respective records in the conference. Meanwhile, three-seed Nashville and seven-seed Los Angeles stand to benefit by the format as opposed to the equitable 1-8 conference structure.
But because the NHL wiped away reseeding for some idiotic reason no one can justify, the second round will eliminate one of the top two teams in each conference (if first-round form holds).
If the Rangers defeat Washington and Carolina ousts the Islanders, then the first-seed Blueshirts and second-seed ’Canes will meet in Round 2 in the East.
If Dallas defeats Vegas and Winnipeg eliminates Colorado in the opening round, the first-seed Stars and second-seed Jets would play.
Eating its best is what the NHL does best.
So, from nearly a decade of snubbing Patrick Roy to examining a dysfunctional playoff system, here we go with a look at the tournament that opens Saturday with Roy and the Islanders in Raleigh.
Even in a field such as this in which there is little clear delineation of prowess at the top, while it’s literally accurate that any team in it can win it, not even Jontay Porter or Shane Pinto would place prop bets or lend his account info out to make wagers on lower-seeded clubs such as the Kings, Caps, Islanders or Predators, regardless how pleasantly surprising Washington and Nashville were in exceeding expectations.
The Kings are one of three teams to make an in-season coaching change to qualify for the tournament with interim man Jim Hillier replacing Todd McLellan while LA was going through a fallow stretch after an over-their-skis start.
The Oilers (Kris Knoblauch for Jay Woodcroft) and the Islanders (Roy for Lane Lambert) are the others that righted their course following a switch behind the bench while the Devils (Travis Green in for Lindy Ruff), Wild (John Hynes for Dean Evason), Senators (Jacques Martin for D.J. Smith) and Blues (Drew Bannister for Craig Berube) did not reverse their fortunes meaningfully enough.
So who wins the blue ribbon for being, “The first-round opponent no favorite wants to play?” Well, there are the Islanders because, well, nobody ever has wanted to play a Lou Lamoriello team in the first round of the playoffs, maybe except for when he was with the Leafs.
But there are also the defending Cup champion Golden Knights, who from one year to the next are beginning to run out of seasons where they can keep Mark Stone out of the lineup for an extended period. Vegas exploits the CBA to the comma the way every fan should hope that his or her favorite team’s owner or GM would do.
There is an immense amount of sheer skill at the top of the standings of each conference. But the Golden Knights remain the template for traditionally successful postseason teams. They are four forward lines and three defense pairs deep, go to the net and protect their crease. They went 3-3 with Tomas Hertl in the lineup.
The Lightning are also one of those teams nobody wants to face in the first round, probably even less so in one of those across-state rivalries but that’s who the Panthers drew — instead of the Leafs — in claiming the Atlantic crown in a 5-0-1 sprint to the finish line.
Tampa Bay, though, has the worst overall save percentage of the 16 playoff teams, and hello? Neither the forward group nor defense pair is nearly as deep as they were during the consecutive title runs. The heart of a champion still beats, and if Matthew Tkachuk winds up going against Nikita Kucherov, that would be a matchup worth the price of admission. The Lighting have been a formidable group for a decade but it’s fraying. When does the narrative shift to impending free agent Steven Stamkos’ future?
The Panthers, though, might have been the team that the Lightning didn’t want to face off the hop, an opponent that will be relentless. There is premium at the top of the Puddy Tats with Tkachuk, 50-goal scorer Sam Reinhart and the superlative Aleksander Barkov, but it’s a bit thin as it trickles down. Sergei Bobrovsky is a known commodity in net.
From doom and gloom including a first-round playoff exit, a buyout of their captain and pending free agencies of their franchise goaltender and franchise center, the Jets sewed straw into gold by extending Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele and then finishing with the fourth-best record in the NHL. They’re deep and play fast and will be trouble.
The Canucks are as entertaining as they come, bolstered by Norris challenger Quinn Hughes and an electric first line including J.T. Miller, but the question is whether you trust Thatcher Demko to do an Adin Hill a year later and lead his team through the obstacle course.
The Stars have surrounded the Cup the way the Rangers did the middle of the last decade, structurally sound with excellent goaltending, a deep lineup with upper-echelon talent up top. What you see is what you get from Dallas.
Oh, by the way, the terms of the Nils Lundkvist trade are complete, with the Blueshirts still to receive a 2025 fourth-rounder from Dallas after the defenseman recorded 39 points his first two years in the NHL. Had the Swede reached 55 points, the Blueshirts would have been in line to receive a third-rounder.
The Avalanche acquired Alex Georgiev to defend the Cup Colorado had won in 2022 with Darcy Kuemper before the netminder fled as a free agent. But the Avalanche went out in the first round last season and this year his .897 save pct. ranked 41st in the league among goalies playing 25 games.
Yes, there are surely all kinds of questions about the Oilers’ goaltending and down stream defense. But when you start up front with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman, that’s not chopped liver and in a season where there is no titan on the western front, the Oilers and Knoblauch have their shot.
I didn’t quite understand how it was possible for the Bruins to lose Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci without missing a beat when their replacements were Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle, but then upon further review, the B’s did miss a few beats in losing their way down the stretch. It seems like their time almost came but now is gone.
The Hurricanes did not have the injured Andrei Svechnikov last spring when Carolina scored a sum of six goals in their four-game sweep by Florida in the conference final. Now they have Svechnikov … plus Jake Guentzel … plus Evgeny Kuznetsov and all the gang that has been making runs for years and, with multiple free agencies potentially looming, could be on its last ride.
So the Leafs are running it back one more time, probably with their best version of themselves since they went all-in on the Four Marquee Forward approach with Auston Matthews, who scored more goals this season (69) than anyone in franchise history, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander. Their success depends on whether netminder Ilya Samsonov can continue on the roll on which he’s been since spending some time in the AHL midseason. (Well, not including the final two games in which he allowed a total of 11 goals).
They went from the last week of October to the first week of April in first place. The Flyers made a run at them. ’Canes charged at them. The Rangers never conceded the division lead, not for one day. They grinded the full 82 and met every challenge down the stretch. They went 18-4-1 at the start and 26-7-1 at the end. Igor Shesterkin is at the top of his form. Adam Fox is at the top of his game. Artemi Panarin has found the sweet spot. The power play and penalty kill are superior.
Head coach Peter Laviolette has been preparing the Rangers for this since the day he took command last summer. They’re ready for this.
Stanley Cup final predictions
Larry Brooks
Rangers over Oilers in 6
Conn Smythe: Igor Shesterkin
Mollie Walker
Rangers over Oilers in 7
Conn Smythe: Artemi Panarin
Ethan Sears
Canucks over Rangers in 5
Conn Smythe: Quinn Hughes