Roster cuts are rolling in, and injury news is becoming more detailed, as teams try to map out their opening day plans.
Things were particularly busy this week as we saw Zack Wheeler ink a three-year extension with the Phillies, Matt Chapman sign a three-year deal with a pair of opt-outs to join the Giants, and Joey Votto land an opportunity to continue his career with the Blue Jays. Oh, and Mookie Betts is moving over to shortstop, effectively switching positions with Gavin Lux.
We’re less than two weeks away from the Dodgers-Padres opening series in Seoul, which means we’re less than two weeks away from our live Rates & Barrels episodes at Other Half Brewing’s Domino Park location in Brooklyn! Eno Sarris and I will be live at 7 p.m. on Wednesday, March 20 and Thursday, March 21 — join us for a pint of Other Half’s new Opening Day beer and another great sandwich from Eno and Chef Ryan.
This week on the pod, we discussed the importance of working backwards when determining your early-round draft strategy. By figuring out what you can find in abundance late, you can make smarter decisions early and fully take advantage of the shape and depth of the player pool. We also covered six more teams for our team preview series, and were very excited to learn about the upcoming arrival of new bat tracking metrics at Baseball Savant.
Listen to Rates & Barrels wherever you enjoy podcasts — including Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, the ad-free option within The Athletic app.
Monday
Spring Training Eno tried to tell everyone to keep calm before we got the official word.
“Expected to be ready for Opening Day.”
Those seven words led many fantasy managers and Braves fans to exhale after a weekend of uncertainty about the health of Ronald Acuña Jr.’s surgically-repaired knee. The reigning NL MVP received confirmation of the initial diagnosis of meniscus irritation after a visit with Dr. Neal ElAttrache.
- Acuña remains the No. 1 overall pick on most fantasy baseball draft boards for those lucky enough to draw the top slot in the weeks ahead, and the focus for those managers can return to their preferred combinations to stack with Acuña. Pocket Aces for the Round 2 and 3 picks, anyone?
- Less than a week after he returned from a hamstring injury to make his Cactus League debut, Noelvi Marte was handed an 80-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy. Time to nudge Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario and Jonathan India up with less short-term playing time risk?
Tuesday
The odd trio for our penultimate team preview episode included the Red Sox, Marlins, and Nationals.
- News about a six-year, $55 million extension for Brayan Bello broke two days after this episode was published. Is the key to a breakout in 2024 as simple as elevating his four-seamer more often? Opposing hitters hit .310 and slugged .646 against Bello’s four-seamer last season, and the location map for the pitch makes it easy to understand how that happened.
- Did we write off Jake Burger as an oatmealy third-base option too quickly? One of our Discord members reminded us that Burger was much better at tempering strikeouts after his trade to Miami (31.6% K% -> 21.7%). He was still getting to his power consistently (nine homers in 53 games), and has enough raw power to overcome playing half of his games in a pitch-friendly power environment. Burger will turn 28 in April, but his actual baseball age is about three years younger thanks to a pair of major injuries and the lost 2020 season. To more clearly articulate my feelings about Burger’s 2024 draft-day price, I think he simply needs to fall a few rounds to end up on my roster, with Ke’Bryan Hayes, Isaac Paredes, Max Muncy, and Jeimer Candelario going in the 40-50 picks after Burger in most NFBC drafts.
- Eddie Rosario was signed by the Nationals after we published this episode, and it will be interesting to see if the Nats find a way to keep both Rosario and Jesse Winker on the roster, since that could bump a player like Stone Garrett back to Triple-A.
Thursday
We completed our team preview series with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets — the latter of which was slightly truncated by conditions that occasionally arise while recording from a spring training park that is preparing to host a game. 😂
- It’s still hard to believe that five of the top 20 wRC+ improvers from 2022 to 2023 were regulars in the Braves lineup last season (Ronald Acuña Jr. + 56, first; Marcell Ozuna +50, fourth, Matt Olson +40, sixth, Eddie Rosario +38, 10th, Ozzie Albies +30, 18th). On a related note, the Braves had four of the top 30 year-over-year barrel rate risers, too (Sean Murphy, Ozuna, Olson and Acuña). We’ve been wondering how they did it since the middle of last season.
- Cristopher Sánchez is being drafted as the Phillies’ third starting pitcher behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, albeit with a much later ADP outside the Top 200. Posting a 20.1% K-BB% from July 1 has made Sánchez pop on a lot of second-half leaderboards, and his overall combination of good control and steady ground-ball rate should enable him to manage pitching half of his games in a park that continues to play as one of the most generous for boosting homers.
- Give me the over on Francisco Álvarez’s 2024 batting average projections. The most optimistic projection from the public-facing sets at FanGraphs is the .232 from Steamer. Álvarez hits the ball very hard with a steady pull approach, and I think the improvement will come from better swing decisions as he continues to get more comfortable against top-level pitching.
Friday
To close out the week, we discussed several interesting stories from The Athletic this week, including Eno’s collaboration with Ken Rosenthal about pitching injuries, Chad Jennings’ breakdown of how the Rays simplify pitching development, and Sahadev Sharma’s piece about Justin Steele, whose ability to manipulate a two-pitch arsenal continues to stymie hitters and some fantasy managers.
- Eno mentioned that he believes hitters should be more aggressive in 0-0 situations given the likelihood that they will see a hittable pitch, since pitchers understand the importance and value of getting ahead in the count. This has led me to a new rabbit hole, wondering if we need to go far beyond first-strike percentages and determine if there are actually “good” and “bad” first-pitch strikes.
- Trevor May explained how he found and utilized the Rays’ single-target approach as a way to adjust to the pitch clock last season.
- Join the Live Hive on our YouTube channel every Friday, at 1p ET/10a PT! 🐝
Have a great weekend! We’re back with you Tuesday.
(Top photo of Mookie Betts: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)