The average fan will react to outfielder Jackson Chourio’s pending eight-year, $82 million contract with the Brewers and say, “Pretty good deal!” And it is.
Chourio is 19. He has yet to play a single game in the majors. And his guarantee is a major step beyond the previous record for a player with zero service time, the six-year $50 million contract the White Sox awarded outfielder Luis Robert Jr. in Jan. 2020.
Yet, the usual questions will arise in the wake of Chourio’s deal, which is expected to be announced at next week’s Winter Meetings. The questions will be less about the Brewers’ risk in committing to one of the game’s top prospects, and more about the money Chourio potentially is sacrificing by jumping into such a deal.
The Chourio contract, according to sources, will include two club options, each valued at $25 million. Escalators based on MVP votes will push the potential value to about $142 million. And even if the Brewers exercise the options, Chourio will be a free agent before turning 30.
Bryce Harper earned slightly more than $142 million by the same age. The difference is that Harper hit the open market entering his age 26 season. He was through four years of his 13-year, $330 million free-agent deal with the Phillies when he turned 30.
Even without knowing his family circumstances, it’s easy to understand why Chourio, a native of Maracaibo, Venezuela, agreed to his new deal. Few among us would turn down lifetime security at such a young age, particularly when a second, much larger contract will be within reach if Chourio fulfills expectations. But here’s the thing: Chourio likely would have struck it rich regardless, and perhaps even richer by waiting nine months, a year, two years.
The Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez signed a 12-year, $210 million contract in August of his rookie season, the largest for a player with less than a year of service. Corbin Carroll, after what was essentially a successful September callup, agreed to an eight-year, $111 million deal, the largest for a player with less than 100 days service.
Heck, those two players also could have waited longer. For an elite position player, the risk in going year to year is simply not all that great. As an example, consider the difference between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto, both of whom arrived in the majors early enough in the 2018 season to be eligible for a fourth year of arbitration.
Acuña signed an eight-year, $100 million extension in April 2019, just 115 games into his major-league career. Two years later, he suffered a torn right ACL, the kind of catastrophic injury players and agents sometimes cite when rationalizing their acceptance of below-market extensions.
The injury sidelined Acuña for the second half of the 2021 season and hindered him in ‘22, but he got back on track with a spectacular MVP season in ‘23. If he had gone year to year, he almost certainly would have hit the jackpot as a free agent after ‘24. Instead, with the Braves virtually certain to exercise his two $17 million options in 2027 and ‘28, he will not become a free agent until prior to his age 31 campaign.
Soto, on the other hand, will top $80 million in his four years of arbitration. A year younger than Acuña, he will hit the open market shortly after turning 26. Factoring in the time Acuña missed because of injury, the career WARs of the two players are nearly identical. But Soto, who turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension with the Nationals in the summer of 2022, likely will seek $500 million in free agency.
Perhaps Acuña will catch up with his next deal. Surely, he will survive just fine. But all this served as a backdrop for Chourio and his agents at the Beverly Hills Sports Council. They knew that if he turned into a reasonable facsimile of Acuña, he would be extremely undervalued. The mere fact they would consider this deal showed that the game’s economic system, even with its new pre-arbitration bonus pool, still does not sufficiently discourage players from potentially selling themselves short.
By agreeing to the contract, Chourio likely ensured he will make the Brewers’ Opening Day roster. Otherwise, the team probably would have kept him in the minors long enough to gain an extra year of club control, making him a free agent entering his age 27 season instead of his age 26. Beyond that, his risk in waiting was small. The chances of him getting non-tendered during his arbitration years was minimal.
Extensions for players with zero service time do not always work out for clubs — see the Mariners with Evan White, the Phillies with Scott Kingery, the Astros with Jon Singleton. Chourio, though, is a better prospect than any of those players were, closer to Robert Jr. in ability. No one should be surprised if he outplays this deal. No one should look too harshly at a 19-year-old who bagged $82 million before playing in the majors, either.
Will Hader beat Díaz?
Free-agent closer Josh Hader likely wants a record contract for a reliever, exceeding the five-year, $102 million deal Edwin Díaz received from the Mets in Nov. 2022, just before the free-agent market opened.
Hader, 29, is a year older than Díaz was at the time of his deal. His career 2.50 ERA is considerably lower than Díaz’s 2.93. However, his average fastball velocity dropped from 97.4 mph in 2022 to 96.1 in ‘23 while his walk rate increased from 9.6 percent to a career-high 13 percent. Some clubs find that combination alarming.
In other ways, Hader was as good as ever. His .157 expected batting average against was the lowest in the majors (minimum 1,000 pitches). Using the same criteria, his slider had the lowest expected batting average against of any pitch by any pitcher. His hard-hit percentage ranked in the 97th percentile.
In the modern baseball era, starting in 1901, Hader is the career leader with a .156 opponents’ batting average and 15 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum 300 innings). Once he signs his new deal, it will be interesting to see if he becomes more open to longer outings. Since losing in arbitration to the Brewers in 2020, he has not pitched more than one inning in a regular-season appearance, seemingly trying to protect his earning power.
MLBTradeRumors.com predicted Hader would receive a record guarantee of $110 million, but a lower average annual value than Díaz in a six-year deal. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicted Hader would receive a three-year, $67 million contract, establishing a record AAV for a reliever.
White Sox’s Cease could be a coup for Braves
On the surface, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease looks like a perfect candidate for an Alex Anthopoulos acquire-and-sign special.
Cease, 27, is from Milton, Ga., about 30 miles north of Atlanta, and under club control for two more seasons. Anthopoulos secured an extension with first baseman Matt Olson, an Atlanta-area native, shortly after trading for him. The Braves GM also went long-term with three homegrown sons of the south: right-hander Spencer Strider, third baseman Austin Riley and center fielder Michael Harris II. Catcher Sean Murphy also fits the profile, even though he is a native of Ohio. Anthopoulos extended Murphy shortly after getting him from the A’s.
Pulling off the same kind of move with Cease will be more challenging. For starters, other teams likely can offer the White Sox better packages than the Braves, whose farm system has been understandably depleted by graduations and trades. Cease, meanwhile, is represented by Scott Boras, who generally prefers his clients to shun extensions and establish their values on the open market. Soto likely will be another example.
The Braves, who currently do not have any Boras clients on their roster, could trade for Cease and take their chances on signing him. In the worst-case scenario, they would get an ace-caliber performer for about $25 million combined in his final two years of arbitration, then receive a draft pick as compensation if he departed as a free agent. In the best-case scenario, Cease would tell Boras, “Hey, I want to stay. Make this happen.”
Jered Weaver, Elvis Andrus and Xander Bogaerts (in his first long-term deal with the Red Sox) are three examples of Boras clients who signed extensions. Cease might be worth the gamble. As recent history has shown, the Braves have special meaning to certain players.
The Orioles, with their wealth of position prospects, seem well-positioned to trade for a starting pitcher they could retain for even longer than Cease — say, Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo or Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal, both of whom are under club control for three more seasons.
The Marlins probably would be more inclined to trade righty Edward Cabrera or lefty Trevor Rogers than Luzardo. The Orioles and other clubs also might show interest in late-inning relievers such as Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk. The Tigers, meanwhile, seem less likely to trade starting pitching for offensive help.
Not only are the Tigers committed to young players such as first baseman Spencer Torkelson, center fielder Riley Greene and right fielder Kerry Carpenter, but they also want to create openings for prospects such as second baseman Colt Keith, third baseman Jace Jung and outfielders Parker Meadows and Justyn-Henry Malloy.
It’s in the fine print
Certain teams, including some facing the potential terminations of their local TV rights deals, are likely to receive a boost from an unpublicized source: luxury-tax proceeds.
Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, about half the proceeds went to player retirement funds and the remaining half was split evenly between all teams who were under the luxury-tax threshold. In the new CBA, players still get around half for retirement, but the remaining half is dedicated to revenue-sharing recipients that have grown certain local revenue sources over a multi-year period.
With a record nine teams going over the luxury tax in 2023, the fund is expected to grow to about $100 million, more than twice what it was a year ago, according to sources briefed on the details. Teams with uncertain TV futures such as the Guardians and Twins would be eligible for a share of that money, helping offset what they might lose in their rights deals.
And finally…
Look for a third stint in Milwaukee to materialize in the coming days for free-agent left-hander Wade Miley.
Miley, 37, enjoys playing for the Brewers, and maintains a strong relationship with Pat Murphy, whom the team recently elevated from bench coach to manager.
The Brewers, likewise, are fond of Miley, who had a 3.14 ERA in 23 starts last season and is a leader in their clubhouse.
(Top photo of Jackson Chourio in spring training: David Durochik / Diamond Images via Getty Images)