HOUSTON — On Opening Day eve for 24 of the 30 Major League clubs, BetOnline announced updated odds for postseason awards on Wednesday. The Yankees were well represented. The two top American League MVP favorites are Aaron Judge at 5/1 followed by Juan Soto at 6/1. Also making the list as a longshot is Gleyber Torres at 100/1.
Earlier in March, the betting site released lines for first manager fired.
Want to take a wild guess who had the best odds?
Uh huh, Mr. Aaron Boone at 5/1.
Once again, Boone’s job security is one of the Yankees’ storylines, this time heading into Thursday’s season opener at Minute Maid Park because a bunch of regular-season success prior to 2023 didn’t turn into championship No. 28 or pennant No. 41 for the MLB’s winningest franchise.
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The Yankees won it all in 2009 when Derek Jeter and the rest of the Core Four climbed the mountaintop one last time. Ever since, there’s been a bunch of playoff appearances, a few trips to the ALCS and no World Series appearances or titles with Joe Girardi managing from 2010-17 and Boone skippering since 2018.
The pennant drought is up to 14 years, which is the longest since the franchise was born in 1903 – the same year of the first World Series – through 1920, Babe Ruth’s first year in pinstripes. But during that 18-year streak of no pennants, the franchise was called the New York Highlanders for the first decade.
Thus, the Yankees are in their longest run ever of no pennants.
There’s been enormous pressure on Boone to get the Yankees over the hump every year, and it grows each time another season ends in disappointment.
This year might be Boone’s last chance. His last contract was a three-run deal that runs through 2024 and has a club option for 2025 that may not be exercised unless the Yankees’ season is a lot better than last year’s, especially October.
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman are big fans of Aaron Boone the man and Aaron Boone the manager. They’re sure that Boone checks a lot of boxes that they want in a manager. One big exception, of course, is that Boone’s only World Series jewelry is a loser ring from 2003 when his ALCS Game 7 homer at the old Yankee Stadium won the pennant for the Yankees and extended the Red Sox’s curse for one last year.
A fair question is whether Boone really should be on the hot seat.
Legions of Yankees fans probably would respond to that with a screaming, “Yes!”
Let’s dive into that a little:
You don’t like Boone’s lineup construction or who he brings into pitch at times?
Surely, you know by now that while Boone has the final call, the Yankees’ analytics people have A LOT to do with who plays, where they bat in the order and bullpen moves. And you better believe Boone knows that he can only veto suggestions so often.
Also, know this:
Boone has an edge. He’ll get on a player behind close doors. We almost never hear about it, but it happens.
And know this:
Aaron Judge wants Boone managing. He’ll tell you that Boone has everyone’s respect. He’ll tell you that they play hard for him. He’ll tell you how much everyone appreciates Boone never calling them out publicly, even when it’s deserved.
To the Boone haters who think he’s too laid back, his 33 ejections in 870 games computes to a 3.79 percentage that is a close second among active managers to the Reds’ David Bell (27 of 708, .381 percent).
None of this matters big picture.
Until the Yankees get to another World Series, their manager is going to get a lot of blame. No matter how much he is or isn’t pressured to go by what the analytical data shows, he writes out the lineups. And Boone’s roster, flawed and injured as it’s been in his years, often looks better on paper than the ones that have won World Series since he got the job — the Red Sox, Nationals, Dodgers, Braves, Astros and Rangers.
I asked Boone about job security Wednesday when he participated in a Zoom call with Yankees writers.
Here is how I framed the question:
You always talk about how much you love the job, but it’s New York and the Yankees haven’t won a World Series since ‘09. Do you ever say yourself, ‘Boy, I better get to the World Series this year to save my job?’ The fans … It’s different in New York. Does that ever cross your mind or are you just strictly blinders to it and don’t worry about it?
Not looking annoyed, Boone responded with a little passion in his voice:
“I don’t know that I look at it like that. I’m here to try and win a World Series. All my energy and all my focus is trying to play my part in helping us be the best possible team we can be and our goal is to be a world champion. So I don’t know if I look at it as this has to happen for me to save this.”
Fair enough.
No pennants and no World Series is what fans are mad about.
Let’s quickly go through those playoff exits one by one:
It’s not Boone’s fault that Luis Severino was bombed by the Red Sox in the series-changing 2018 ALDS Game 3 or that seven of the nine regulars hit under .225 in the series.
Boone shouldn’t be second guessed for going to Aroldis Chapman in 2019 ALCS Game 6 because he had a 2.21 ERA that season and an 0.00 ERA in the postseason before Jose Altuve took him deep to win the pennant (maybe with an illegal sign-stealing buzzer taped to his chest).
In 2020, I hated the decision to use Deivi Garcia as an opener and then go with J.A. Happ in Game 2 ALDS, but the Yankees didn’t have enough starting pitching that year and the Rays were the better team throughout that COVID-shortened season.
Boone can’t be blamed for Gerrit Cole’s blowup at Fenway in the 2021 Wild Card game.
In 2022, the Astros were the better team and it showed in their ALCS sweep, one that included the Yankees scoring nine runs in four games while batting .162. You think Boone is responsible for any of that?
Last year?
Boone can’t be held liable for the Yankees sinking to 82-80 with no playoffs after Judge missed two months, which was part of 28 players going on the IL for a total of 38 stints. He can’t be blamed for Carlos Rodon’s 2023 misery, either, or Anthony Rizzo’s concussion, or Giancarlo Stanton’s injury and lack of production.
None of that is on Boone, yet he gets bashed on social media.
This year, the Yankees are starting out playing with a short deck once again. Boone can’t be blamed for the Yankees starting this season with eight players on the IL, the list including No. 1 starter Gerrit Cole, starting third baseman DJ LeMahieu, rookie center fielder phenom Jasson Dominguez, veteran relievers Tommy Kahnle, Scott Effross and Lou Trivino.
Boone could throw out the injury excuse all the time for the Yankees’ failings, and he’d be right. But he doesn’t. He’ll tell you that he expects to win with whatever he has, but he has to say that. He can’t be quoted saying, “What do you expect when this is the best I have?”
With a lot of lineup and rotation plugging, Boone has excellent career managing numbers. His .585 winning percentage managing the Yankees ranks higher than all but one active manager, the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts at .629.
Also, Boone’s winning percentage is better than the 14 Hall of Famer managers who were active at any point in the last 70 years: Al Lopez (.584), Earl Weaver (.583), Walter Alston (.558), Bobby Cox (.556), Sparky Anderson (.545), Leo Durocher (.540), Joe Torre (.538), Tony LaRussa (.536), Whitey Herzog (.532), Tommy Lasorda (.526), Dick Williams (.520), Casey Stengel (.508), Jim Leyland (.506) and Bucky Harris (.493).
He’s also higher than two greats who retired after the 2023 season, Dusty Baker (.540) and Terry Francona (.548), and far above an active skipper who is a Cooperstown lock, Bruce Bochy (.499). Boone is ahead of two Yankees legends, too – Billy Martin (.553) and Lou Piniella (.517).
All of that is regular-season success though.
A stat that matters is his 14-17 postseason record with no championships and no pennants.
Fair or not, if the Yankees don’t go on an October run this year, one that puts them back in the World Series, Boone probably won’t be managing next year.
Who will?
It could be Brad Ausmus, who was brought in to be Boone’s new bench coach after Carlos Mendoza left to manage the Mets.
It could be Buck Showalter, who has allies in the organization plus unfinished Yankees business going back to the 1995 ALDS loss in Seattle that cost him his manager job.
It’s a long shot, but maybe it could be Francona, who turns 65 in April, out of retirement after one year if his health is good..
Or maybe Don Mattingly quits his bench coach job in Toronto to come home and manage the Yankees.
Or …
Maybe Cashman and Steinbrenner decide to pick up Boone’s option.
Sorry Boone bashers, that’s a possibility, too, because Steinbrenner and Cashman agree that Boone is an asset.
How will this play out? Probably how it went down the last time. Steinbrenner will pay attention to what he’s seeing and hearing all season long, then talk to Cashman and a lot of other execs as well as Judge after, then make a final decision.
Boone’s lived that before as a player and manager, so he’s good at tuning all of it out.
“I’m in competition mode of trying to be the best we can absolutely be,” Boone said. “That’s where my focus lies, and hopefully that’s where our team’s focus lies.”
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Randy Miller may be reached at rmiller@njadvancemedia.com.