Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5) breaks a tackle by Green Bay Packers cornerback … [+]
There’s much to be thankful for as Thanksgiving arrives. As families and friends gather to give gratitude while enjoying turkey and a fulfilling feast, many sports fans will also be watching and wagering on pro football. The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys host NFL games as a Thanksgiving day tradition, and since 2006, a third NFL game has been added with no specific host team to the prime-time window.
For sports bettors and bookmakers, the start of the holiday season at Thanksgiving is also the busiest sports betting week of the year.
2023 Thanksgiving Day schedule, odds and TV coverage
Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spreads listed on favorites, all times Eastern.
Lions (-7.5) and total 46.5
Cowboys (-12.5) and total 48.5
49ers -7 and total 43.5
Review the NFL Week 12 injury report before making your football bets.
Also, tune in Friday for more NFL action and the first-ever NFL Black Friday game. Prime Video will present a classic AFC East showdown between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins, and Amazon is pulling out all the stops to ensure it’s a day that fans will never forget.
Dolphins (-9.5) and total 41
Types of bets and how to read the odds
Since 2010, leading online sportsbooks have reported that Thanksgiving day favorites have gone 31-7 straight up (SU) and 21-17 against the spread.
A FanDuel Research analyst likes the Lions to pound the Packers and cover the -7.5 points. Check out the analysis and picks, which also includes ‘over’ the game total in the Cowboys-Commanders contest and ‘under’ the total in the Seahawks-Niners nightcap to finish off your Thanksgiving feast.
NFL Thanksgiving Games: History, traditions and best moments
Leading NFL handicapper and betting market influencer Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports adds more stats, insight and analysis on the Packers-Lions division duel followed by the Commanders-Cowboys bitter division rivalry. These are not best bets, but stats-driven analysis and matchup insight to assist you with your wagers and player prop bets. Read more in Dr. Bob Sports link above including other Week 12 games.
A tip in gambling is a bet suggested by a third party who is perceived to be more knowledgeable about that subject than the bookmaker who sets the initial odds.
Green Bay at Detroit
- The Lions are the only team in the NFL this season to win a game with 4 turnovers after coming back to beat the Bears last week, 31-26.
- Packers RB Aaron Jones is out with a sprained MCL and QB Jordan Love is averaging 0.20 EPA/play fewer with Jones off the field this year.
- Green Bay’s ground game will be completely shut down without Jones as Detroit’s rush defense ranks 5th by our metrics.
- The Packers will also be without starting tight end Luke Musgrave and they have a banged-up wide receiver in Jayden Reed, who has a 56% success rate (19th) but suffered a chest injury in practice earlier this week.
- Lions edge defender Aidan Hutchinson has 58 pressures (3rd) but he may be contained by RT Zach Tom, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.
- Detroit’s offense has a 50% success rate on screens (5th) and RB Jahmyr Gibbs had six receptions for 59 yards last week.
- Our model makes Detroit an 8.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.3 points.
Washington at Dallas
- Cowboys edge defender Micah Parsons had 2.5 sacks last week and the Dallas defense has a 62% pressure rate on Bryce Young. The Cowboys pass rush will torment Sam Howell, who has a league-high 51 sacks.
- Howell’s top receiver Terry McLaurin leads the Commanders with 56 receptions, but he will be limited by CB Daron Bland, who leads the NFL with +48 EPA for his defense this year when targeted.
- Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb has 655 receiving yards in his last 5 games and is up to 0.67 EPA/target (2nd) but he will be relatively contained by nickelback Benjamin St-Juste, who is conceding 0.88 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th).
- After trading edge defenders Chase Young and Montez Sweat, the Commanders top interior defender is Jonathan Allen, who has 36 pressures (7th). Allen will be shut down on Thursday though by Cowboys LG Tyler Smith, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.
- Our model makes Dallas a 10.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.6 points, but the Cowboys are relatively better against lesser teams, as they are now 53-26-2 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage of .500 or lower. I think 13 is a fair line and I used Washington in my spread pool.
Player Props – Packers-Lions
After a winning player prop bet on Eagles RB D’Andre Swift (former Lion) to go over his receiving yards prop in the Week 11 Monday Night Football matchup between the Eagles-Chiefs, lets take a shot on Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs to go ‘over’ 26.5 receiving yards. Gibbs’ speed and elusiveness have been on full display the past four games as he’s gone over this receiving yardage prop in all four games while averaging nearly 6 receptions per contest, including against Baltimore’s top-tier defense.
Player Props – Commanders-Cowboys
Cowboys WR Cee Dee Lamb went over 1,000 yards receiving for the season last week but was slowed with 6 receptions for 38 yards in the Cowboys 33-10 win at Carolina. However, Lamb is averaging 101 receiving yards per game and had at least 10 catches and more than 150 receiving yards in three straight games prior to the Cowboys crushing Carolina. The Week 10 NFC Offensive Player of the Week can light it up again for more than his over/under prop of 90.5 receiving yards. The matchups are favorable for Lamb, and barring an in-game injury, Lamb should be a key target for QB Dak Prescott. The Commanders also allow a NFC-worst 5.8 yards per play on defense, and Washington’s pass defense ranks No. 30 in the NFL allowing 258 passing yards per game.
Follow more Week 12 NFL betting news, odds and insight on all the NFL teams. The entertaining and engaging action is best and most fulfilling with good food, feast, family and friends.
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