CHICAGO — When the Chicago Cubs stunningly hired Craig Counsell, some observers interpreted the move as a sign the big-market franchise would spend the rest of the offseason gobbling up free agents. The conventional wisdom went like this: Why make Counsell the sport’s highest-paid manager only to have him run a modified version of the Milwaukee Brewers? The knee-jerk reaction did not account for the organization’s alignment and discipline.
Counsell’s previous experience working in a front office (and in a small market) lines up with the mindset of Cubs executives Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins. Counsell’s five-year, $40 million deal is massive compared with his peers’, but the Cubs are only paying him like a solid role player this season, roughly what a No. 5 starter or a late-inning reliever might command.
The Cubs are on a track that will likely exceed Major League Baseball’s $237 million luxury tax threshold this year, though their payroll isn’t at the level of the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Yankees. The investment is still more than enough to win the National League Central, as Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts declared. And in the playoffs, anything can happen.
“Doing it the right way,” Counsell said, “and responsibly and with the right players is a little harder than just saying, ‘Spend.’”
Hoyer’s group went months without signing a new player to a major-league contract or executing a big trade. How the pieces would fit together was unclear, but the early returns are promising. More patience will also be required as the Cubs sort out their struggling bullpen and work through defensive lapses.
The Cubs are still 20-14 after hanging on for Saturday’s 6-5 win over the Brewers in front of 40,505 at Wrigley Field. The record demonstrates a level of cohesiveness.
It took until the middle of January before the Cubs significantly altered their roster by signing Shota Imanaga. Club officials and Imanaga’s representatives weren’t sandbagging when they tried to temper initial expectations. Even for a thoughtful pitcher who was nicknamed “The Throwing Philosopher” in Japan, the adjustment period could have been overwhelming.
It’s throwing a different baseball toward a different strike zone while trying to create relationships with new teammates and coaches. It’s learning about a new culture while developing a different off-the-field routine. It’s handling the pressure.
Shota Imanaga leads National League starters with a 3 percent walk rate and 2.21 FIP. (David Butler II / USA Today)
The baseball industry did not value Imanaga as highly as other Japanese pitchers such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Kodai Senga. Imanaga’s complex four-year, $53 million contract, which includes certain options for the team and the player, looks like a win-win deal.
Imanaga’s production during his first month as a Cub has been worth almost $10 million, according to FanGraphs’ dollars metric. The lefty has a 5-0 record and a 0.78 ERA through six starts, and the Cubs have won all those games. He’s faced 132 hitters and walked just four.
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“Through all the changes, he’s come out and just pumped strikes,” Hoyer said. “He enjoys the competition. He challenges guys. I haven’t seen any running away from a fight. (Shohei) Ohtani’s at the plate and he’s going to challenge him. In big spots against good hitters, he’s throwing strikes. He’s coming after you. I love that style.”
On the day the Cubs announced the Imanaga signing, they finalized a trade with the Dodgers, acquiring Michael Busch and Yence Almonte for two faraway prospects who do not yet require spots on the 40-man roster (Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope). Busch checks so many boxes as a left-handed hitter with a track record of performance in a major college program (North Carolina) and the Cape Cod League that it’s sort of surprising the Cubs didn’t select him when they had the chance in the first round of the 2019 draft.
The Cubs focused on pitching at No. 27 (Ryan Jensen), and Busch fell to the Dodgers four picks later. There were defensive questions about Busch, who posted a .919 OPS in the minors but was boxed out of a lineup that features Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.
“The Dodgers had three (future) Hall of Famers playing the positions that he would play,” Hoyer said. “That was a trade that made a lot of sense for both teams. He’s come in and shown the reasons that we were interested. He controls the strike zone really well. He makes really good decisions. And he has power.”
Busch, 26, isn’t scheduled to enter the arbitration system until 2027 or reach free agency until after the 2029 season. He hasn’t hit a home run since launching five in five consecutive games (April 10-15), but his OPS is still .833. Cooling off after a hot start doesn’t fundamentally change the evaluation. The Cubs might have their long-term answer at first base.
“Michael is just a consistent player and a consistent person,” Counsell said. “That’s going to benefit him really well in a season where he’s on a roller-coaster ride. That’s what baseball seasons do to you. They kind of put you on this ride. But Michael’s personality — and his game, period — is going to be able to even some of those challenges out. As you do that and go through the ups and the downs, it builds your confidence.”
By late February, it became clear the Cubs and Cody Bellinger needed each other again. Throughout the winter, Hoyer remained in contact with agent Scott Boras about the possibility of another “pillow contract” for the Comeback Player of the Year. Whether Bellinger opts out of his three-year, $80 million deal after this season will be an ongoing question.
The offense isn’t the same without Bellinger (right rib fracture) or Seiya Suzuki (right oblique strain). Bellinger “may be a little ahead” of Suzuki, Counsell said, though both hitters could be activated off the injured list at some point in the coming week. Counsell indicated Suzuki would likely need a short minor-league rehab assignment and Bellinger could be plugged right back into Chicago’s lineup.
Cody Bellinger (right rib fracture) and Seiya Suzuki (right oblique strain) could both be activated off the injured list at some point in the coming week, according to Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell.
— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) May 4, 2024
Without any setbacks, it’s a matter of pain tolerance and keeping Bellinger in good condition for an entire season more than concern about a reinjury.
“That’s how the doctors are looking at it,” Counsell said. “But asking a player to go do that means you risk him having to change things to compensate for that. That’s why you still have to be cautious with it. Because that’s almost a worse thing to do, putting him in a position where he’s having to compensate for an injury. That doesn’t do anybody any good.”
Making that type of compromise contributed to Bellinger’s decline in Los Angeles. In the meantime, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like he’s learned from last year’s uneven major-league debut. Mike Tauchman continues to be an ideal role player. At some point, the Cubs should be closer to a version of full strength.
The farm system that remained largely intact through the offseason will present more potential internal solutions such as Cade Horton and Owen Caissie. The bullpen is unstable, but Hoyer’s front office will have plenty of trade chips to move at the deadline. And this time Bellinger’s name won’t be all over the rumors.
“We got so many guys that have been through it,” Bellinger said. “You understand that crazy stuff happens in this game. You’re going to get punched in the face. And you’re going to have to get up and do it all over again. It’s a tough game, so you just got to continue to wake up and trust in each other and continue to play baseball.”
(Top photo of Michael Busch: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)