Spring training is underway and as the new season approaches, we wanted to take a moment to share a few changes to Rates & Barrels for the upcoming season.
Eno and I are thrilled to welcome former MLB pitcher Trevor May to the show! Trevor will join us as a third host on Friday livestreams, bringing a fresh perspective from the field after a 10-year career that included stints with the Twins, Mets and A’s.
Our livestream debuted this week, and we hope you will join us every Friday at 1p ET on our YouTube channel.
This week, we discussed spring training from a player’s perspective, how to make sense of reports about injuries, lighting up the radar gun in bullpen sessions, and players being in the “best shape of their life.” Plus, Eno and Trevor did a deep dive into four-seam fastballs.
As the show continues to expand, we have been searching for ways to effectively supplement episodes with an easy-to-digest summary of the content, as well as a few bits from the cutting room floor.
Each week, we will have a show newsletter to recap recent episodes, allowing us to share more visuals and information, expand upon ideas that we stumbled into organically throughout the week, and offer up written fantasy advice at the end of each week in place of last season’s waiver-centric Friday episode.
We will still discuss prospects, and waiver-wire targets throughout the week, but without the pre-built structure of emphasizing those topics throughout our Tuesday and Friday episodes.
Finally, we have received a lot of requests over the years from listeners seeking different ways to connect us with, and each other. We have started a new Discord channel for listeners of the show, which we hope can serve as a forum for everyone who enjoys baseball to discuss ideas about the game, fantasy baseball strategy, and more. You can join that growing community here.
We look forward to engaging with you in Discord, via mailbag ([email protected]), comments on our YouTube channel, and during the Friday livestreams each week.
Cheers,
— DVR, Eno & Trevor
As always, we hope you enjoy the show wherever you prefer to get your podcasts — including the ad-free option within The Athletic app.
Monday
We resumed the Team Preview series with the three teams projected to finish in the middle of the NL West — the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants.
- In the days since this episode was released, Giants shortstop Marco Luciano has fallen on several Top 100 prospect lists, including a drop from No. 21 overall in 2023 to No. 84 on Keith Law’s recently published rankings.
- On a positive note for Giants fans, Keaton Winn might be a sneaky-productive option in the back of the rotation after finding his way into the mix last season. Eno’s ppERA projection (4.07) and Stuff+ number (114) from Winn’s 2023 run with the big league club point to Winn as a great late-round target in deeper leagues.
Tuesday
Eno and DVR caught up on a few recent signings and trades. Jorge Soler inked a three-year deal with the Giants, providing a much-needed power boost to the lineup, Nick Gordon was traded to the Marlins, and Spencer Turnbull landed with the Phillies. We also discussed a few pitchers whose draft day price has moved considerably over the course of draft season.
- Soler’s projection from The BAT X makes him the 73rd-ranked hitter in the FanGraphs auction calculator (15-team league, two catchers), while his seven-day NFBC ADP (150.85, min. pick 115) checks in at No. 88 among hitters. That projection calls for just 539 plate appearances, a total that Soler has topped in three of the past four full seasons, and one that he should be able to eclipse, barring injury woes, in Year 1 with the Giants.
- “Build a Bench” made a soft return as we attempted (again) to figure out how the Rays will divvy up playing time with their constantly changing roster. Rays talk begins around 34:20 and we wonder if Richie Palacios might have additional paths to playing time thanks to past experience playing second base.
Thursday
We resumed our team preview series with the Dodgers, Reds, and Pirates, after discussing the news that Kyle Bradish will begin the season on the IL due to a tear in his UCL.
The case for Glasnow as an ace
By signing Tyler Glasnow to a four-year, $110 million extension, the Dodgers locked up a potential ace through the 2028 season.
Rather than take the risk of pitching on a one-year deal, Glasnow opted for long-term stability.
Ron Shandler’s 2024 Baseball Forecaster (highly recommended!) includes a five-year injury log for all players and sheds some potential light on his willingness to sign a long-term extension rather than gamble on a completely healthy and dominant 2024. Glasnow has lost time in four of the past five seasons to a forearm strain (2019), a torn UCL that eventually required Tommy John surgery (2021 and 2022) and an oblique strain (2023).
A look back toward past workloads has a few encouraging totals, including:
- 140 innings between his minor-league stops and time in the big leagues with the Pirates in 2016 (age-22 season).
- 153.1 innings between Triple-A and the majors with the Pirates in 2017 (age-23 season).
- 111.2 innings between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in 2018 — with all 34 of his appearances before a mid-season trade to the Rays coming out of the bullpen (age-24 season).
While there is considerable risk given the more recent struggle to stay healthy, consider how few “A” health grade starting pitchers are currently in the pool, and how quickly a pitcher’s reputation can change with merely a pair of healthy seasons (see: López, Pablo).
Within the aforementioned five-year injury window (2019-2023)…
In NFBC drafts that have been completed in the past seven days (February 10-17), Glasnow has been selected between pick 24 and 63, with average draft position of pick 40 — currently eighth among starting pitchers — and with the potential to climb to a Top 30 overall ADP by March when starting pitchers typically move up the board.
Glasnow has the skills to be the first pitcher off the board in 2024, and to provide the Dodgers a huge bargain on high quality innings if he can avoid lengthy stints on the IL during his time in Los Angeles.
- From the Discord: How much power should we project from Elly De La Cruz? The home park, and the quality of his contact are baked into The BAT X, which seemingly comes in light with 19 homers (561 PA projected). If you’re buying Elly being a good enough defender, and a young hitter who will improve quickly, 25-plus homers might immediately accompany his blistering speed.
- I asked Eno on Friday afternoon for his Elly homer projection. His response: “3o, baby!”
- TJ Friedl’s playing time was not discussed on the episode, in part because we are assuming his defensive value in center field will make him less susceptible to losing playing time than the infield and corner-outfield options. As we noted when Friedl was discussed in our Outfield Preview a few weeks back, 15 of Friedl’s 18 homers last season were hit against righties, and 13 of his 18 homers came at Great American Ball Park.
Friday
Trevor made his Rates & Barrel debut!
- The four-seam fastball deep dive (19:48) is the first of many individual pitch breakdowns — we hope you enjoy it!