This growth is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ranging from 9% to 11%, ultimately reaching a total of 25.9 million to 26.1 million units during this period.
By FY32, sales are expected to nearly double to 30.7-30.9 million units from 16.3 million units in FY23, it said. Improving income levels, customer sentiments, and increasing need for personal mobility are expected to push sales.
Overall, the number of two wheelers sold per 1,000 population is expected to rise from 121 in fiscal 2023 to 136-140 in fiscal 2028 and 150-154 in fiscal 2032, according to the report by Crisil.
It said that passenger vehicle sales are expected to post a CAGR of 5-7% between fiscals 2023 and 2028 to reach 5.2-5.4 million units. Sales are expected to grow at a slightly lower CAGR of 4-6% between fiscals 2028 and 2032, to 6.2-6.4 million units.
Anticipated growth in the later period is attributed to several factors, including increased accessibility to financing choices, enhancements in road infrastructure, higher incomes among consumers, strong order backlogs for automobile companies, the resolution of supply-chain challenges for auto original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and the expected impact of new model introductions. Consequently, the number of passenger vehicles (PVs) sold per 1,000 people is projected to increase from 25 in fiscal year 2023 to a range of 28-32 in fiscal year 2028 and 35-39 in fiscal year 2032.
India will spend nearly Rs 143 lakh crore on infrastructure in seven fiscals through 2030, more than twice the Rs 67 lakh crore spent in the previous seven years, starting fiscal 2017, according to Crisil. Of the total, Rs 36.6 lakh crore will be green investments, marking a 5 times rise compared with fiscals 2017-2023.
“We expect India’s GDP to grow at an average 6.7% through fiscal 2031 to be the fastest-expanding large economy. Per capita income is seen rising from USD 2,500 to USD 4,500 by fiscal 2031, creating a middle-income country. This growth will be underpinned by infrastructure development, with sharp focus on integrating sustainability,” said Amish Mehta, MD and CEO of Crisil.
(With TOI inputs)