There are a number of massive college football games on tap for Saturday. As things stand now, it looks like a number of these games will be major bullet points on the resumes of contenders for the College Football Playoff so let’s play a little what if.
What will the Playoff picture look like if Ohio State stumbles in Notre Dame? How about if Clemson knocks off Florida State? Does Colorado have a chance to emerge as a Playoff contender with a win in Oregon? My College Football Playoff model has some answers.
I have the CFP projections entering Week 4, but this is a sneak peak into what the numbers will be based on the results of Saturday’s biggest games. For example, I ran simulations based on an Ohio State win and then did the same for a Notre Dame win to see how the chances for each team changed based on what happens in South Bend. I repeated this for Oregon-Colorado, Alabama–Ole Miss, Clemson-Florida State and Penn State–Iowa.
If you haven’t seen my CFP projections before, here’s how it works: I have developed a season simulator that produces odds for winning the national title, making the College Football Playoff, and winning conference and division titles. After every simulation is complete, I have developed a model that selects Playoff teams. The playoff selection model is quite simple and very similar, in my opinion, to the committee’s selection process in that it creates a “resume strength rating,” derived from prior resume strength ratings, past Playoff rankings and Playoff selections for each season.
The tables below show the changes in the chances my model gives a team to make the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State at Notre Dame
If Ohio State wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
39.5% |
51.7% |
|
|
12.9% |
4.7% |
If Notre Dame wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
12.9% |
24.8% |
|
|
39.5% |
22.2% |
How does the model factor in a new quarterback like Kyle McCord at a team like Ohio State where CJ Stroud was so good the last two years?
My model is able to look at returning production and adjust for players returning and/or transferring in. It’s not a perfect process, but it’s definitely better than just assuming Kyle McCord can come in and replicate CJ Stroud’s success.
Florida State at Clemson
If Florida State wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
29.8% |
44.3% |
|
|
7.5% |
1.7% |
If Clemson wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
7.5% |
12.8% |
|
|
29.8% |
15.6% |
Florida State and Clemson both appear to have a decent shot at making the Playoff with one loss. What would it take for them to get shut out with one loss? Is that possible?
It’s not likely but if there are undefeated teams from the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big 12 that shuts out a one loss Florida State/Clemson. Again, it’s not likely but that’s certainly possible. And that’s without getting into the debate over one-loss teams from those respective conferences.
Colorado at Oregon
If Oregon wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
8.9% |
10.6% |
|
|
0.01% |
0.0% |
If Colorado wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
0.01% |
0.05% |
|
|
8.9% |
2.2% |
Why do the numbers not view Colorado as a contender, even with a win?
First and foremost, Colorado just isn’t seen as a good team right now. The Buffaloes’ performance against Oregon will go a long way but at the same time, they’re three-touchdown underdogs. Add in how difficult CU’s schedule is the rest of the season and the Buffs are still a long way away from being seen as a Playoff contender.
Ole Miss at Alabama
If Alabama wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
15.5% |
19.6% |
|
|
0.8% |
0.05% |
If Ole Miss wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
0.8% |
2.8% |
|
|
15.5% |
3.3% |
How would a two-loss Alabama be viewed as more likely to get in the Playoff than an undefeated Ole Miss?
Frankly, my model thinks Ole Miss isn’t good.
Iowa at Penn State
If Penn State wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
25.9% |
30% |
|
|
1.4% |
0.5% |
If Iowa wins:
| Team | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
|
1.4% |
6.6% |
|
|
25.9% |
5.7% |
Is there any Big Ten West team that would be less than a two-touchdown underdog in the Big Ten title game?
I think Iowa is the only team that would qualify for that. The Hawkeyes are currently around a two-touchdown underdog to Penn State this weekend on the road. But that’s only because they play a slow brand of football with a strong defense. If they get blown out this weekend, though, then I think the answer is no Big Ten West team is less than a 14-point underdog in Indianapolis.
(Photo of Jack Sawyer: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)