Which NHL top pairs have been the best and worst in the 2023-24 season?

Any NHL team with Stanley Cup contention aspirations needs its top players to be firing on all cylinders. If they’ve got an elite top line and first pair, that foundation can often mask flaws and weaknesses further down the lineup.

Two weeks ago we analyzed how every NHL team’s top line was producing. This time we’re turning our attention to each club’s first pairs. The goal is the same as it was with the forwards: Identify which teams have top pairs that are dominating and which ones are significantly trailing the competition.

Let’s begin by laying out our criteria for defining a “top pair” and then explain our methodology for tracking performance.

My initial thought was to take each team’s No. 1 defenseman and then look at that player’s results with their most frequent partner (e.g., Cale Makar is the Avalanche’s No. 1 defender and his most common partner is Devon Toews, so let’s break down the Toews-Makar pair’s numbers). That approach is great in theory, but the problem is that many teams haven’t had a consistent two-man top pair this season. Many teams have a No. 1 defender as their anchor for the top pair and then a rotating cast of lesser partners that are constantly changing.

Victor Hedman, for example, has had three partners this season who’ve logged at least 200 five-on-five minutes next to him (Nick Perbix, Darren Raddysh, Erik Cernak). If I plugged in the results of the Hedman-Perbix pair, they would represent only 37 percent of Hedman’s total five-on-five ice time this year.

The next best thing we can do is use the No. 1 defender as a proxy for the top-pair results (i.e., Hedman is Tampa Bay’s No. 1 defenseman, so let’s look at his combined five-on-five results with all three of his partners because Hedman represents the team’s “top pair” every game, regardless of who he’s playing with).

Here’s a chart showing which No. 1 defender was used as each team’s proxy, plus a breakdown of who their partner(s) have been this season.

We’ll look at the goals for and against differential when that top pair is on the ice as a simple measure of performance. Goal differential obviously isn’t a perfect instrument because of environmental factors (it can be skewed by the quality of the forwards that the pair shares the ice with, shooting/goaltending luck and overall team quality). But if we apply context by also looking at the pair’s play-driving numbers (which we’ll break down toward the end of the article) we’ll get a decent 200-foot view. Here are the numbers so far, sorted by each pair’s five-on-five goal differential rate.

Quinn Hughes has been the Canucks’ MVP and the best defenseman in the NHL this season.

Hughes is a one-man zone exit machine and a cheat code in the offensive zone because of his elusiveness as a skater, elite playmaking vision and significantly improved shot. What’s separated him from the league’s other elite defensemen this season is that he’s combined all of those elite offensive traits with strong defensive play — he’s smart positionally, regularly breaks up odd-man rushes and rarely turns pucks over.

When Hughes steps on the ice, it’s like watching an NBA star attacking in isolation as he single-handedly dictates possession and scoring plays. The numbers reflect that as Hughes is on pace for 97 points and has driven a plus-32 goal differential at five-on-five.

Filip Hronek deserves a lot of credit for helping take the Canucks’ top pair to another level, too. Hughes has called Hronek the best partner he’s ever had and it’s for good reason: Hronek’s puck-moving and offensive IQ has been the perfect fit. Hronek, in fact, leads all NHL defensemen with 27 five-on-five assists this year.

Florida’s environment seems to elevate every defenseman. The Panthers’ 10-5-1 start without Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour proved that.

Florida opened the year with a ragtag blue line that featured Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who was borderline unplayable in Vancouver last season, playing top-pair minutes on his off-side and yet the top pair and overall defense didn’t just hold the fort, they boasted legitimately dominant play-driving numbers.

Gustav Forsling’s brilliant skating, puck-moving and stout rush defense combo is the perfect fit for how the Panthers play. He’s a legitimate top-pair stud and for as much recognition as Montour and Ekblad get for their flashy point totals and name-brand value, Forsling is the team’s best defenseman.

Josh Morrissey is proving that last year’s breakout as a bona fide No. 1 defenseman was no fluke. Sure, he’s not going to hit 76 points again, but he deserves his flowers for his excellent two-way play control. Morrissey’s controlling 55 percent of scoring chances and is nearly impossible to score on, with a 1.55 goals-against-per-hour rate.

These results are even more impressive when you factor in that Morrissey has less help than his peers. Dylan DeMelo is a smart, underrated defenseman but he’s not a true top-pair caliber partner for Morrissey.

New York Islanders

Noah Dobson is breaking out as an elite defenseman. The smooth-skating 24-year-old defenseman was already a skilled offensive player — he scored in the 50-point range the last two years — but the strides he’s taken to become a No. 1 workhorse this year are massive.

Dobson’s partner, Alexander Romanov, has significantly improved too. He was inconsistent defensively last season, regularly getting caught out of position because of aggressive mistakes, but he’s been smarter and more reliable in his second year with the Islanders.

The Islanders’ top pair isn’t controlling play quite as well as their goal differential suggests. They’re benefitting from a .944 on-ice save percentage, meaning their 1.82 goals-against-per-hour rate looks more impressive than it should.

Zach Werenski is one of Columbus’ only veteran players who hasn’t been a disappointment.

Werenski, who missed 69 games with injury last season, has driven a ton of offense. The Blue Jackets’ top pair has the second-highest offensive scoring rate in the NHL. Werenski’s racked up 33 points in 43 games — he’s only seven points back of Johnny Gaudreau for the team lead in scoring despite missing 12 games with an injury.

Columbus’ first pair isn’t controlling play as well as its goal differential suggests, particularly defensively. They’ve been a bit fortunate. But it still makes you wonder: How poorly have the Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson acquisitions aged that the Blue Jackets are struggling this bad despite Werenski driving a plus-13 goal differential?

Edmonton’s top pair of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard has been terrific after a slow start. The first few weeks were challenging as Ekholm was noticeably limited in returning from a preseason hip flexor injury and Bouchard looked lost defensively. But since then, they’ve been one of the most prolific blue-line duos in the NHL.

Since Dec. 1, the Ekholm-Bouchard pair has commanded 62 percent of scoring chances and outscored teams 33-18 at five-on-five.

Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns feast together on the Canes’ top pair. They tilt the ice with a massive edge in controlling shots and scoring chances and it’s translated with their actual goal share, too.

Slavin’s wonderful skating, massive reach and disruptive stick are everything you want in a shutdown defenseman, while Burns’ offensive punch and two-way competitiveness are an excellent complement.

New York’s top pair with Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren always delivers above-average results and this year is no different. The Rangers aren’t scoring a ton of goals with this pair on the ice, but Fox and Lindgren have done an impressive job of suppressing scoring chances defensively and are carrying a sparkling 1.64 goals-against-per-hour rate.

The Penguins’ season is slipping away. It isn’t because of their even-strength play, however, which has been mostly strong, starting with the first line and defense pair.

Kris Letang walks a fine line with his high-risk offensive style but he’s handily winning his matchups. He deserves even more credit because Ryan Graves, who was signed as a free agent to be his partner, has been a flop and has since been demoted down the lineup.

Charlie McAvoy is always a lock to guide the Bruins’ top pair to strong results. McAvoy is one of the league’s most well-rounded defenders and it shows with Boston’s first pair ranking above average in both offensive scoring rate and defensive goal prevention.

Matt Grzelcyk, McAvoy’s most common partner, has struggled at points this season. But his underwhelming play hasn’t dragged the first pair’s overall performance by a huge margin, at least statistically.

Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev have impressively held up in top-pair usage on a mediocre team with subpar forwards. It’s a tough ask since neither one of them is a bona fide No. 1 defenseman yet they play opponents to roughly a draw when it comes to shots and scoring chances while pushing a plus-11 goal differential.

Hanifin’s the better player of the two, but both of them are mobile, capable of transitioning the puck and defending well.

At 34, Drew Doughty is still performing at a high level for the Kings. (Yannick Peterhans / USA Today)

Drew Doughty is aging remarkably well into his mid-30s. The 34-year-old leads all NHL players in averaging 25:55 per game yet he continues performing at a high level. Doughty’s driven a 56.1 percent share of shot attempts, his 1.95 goals-against-per-hour rate is tied with his partner Mikey Anderson for the best mark among Kings blueliners and he’s scored 12 goals and 31 points in 54 games.

Speaking of underrated, J.J. Moser is an impressive under-the-radar defenseman. The 23-year-old’s steady two-way intelligence has allowed him to keep his head above water despite being assigned the toughest matchups on the Coyotes’ blue line. Moser has spent a decent chunk of the season alongside Sean Durzi, who’s blossoming with a bigger role in Arizona.

Vince Dunn and Adam Larsson are an underrated first pair. Since last season, they’ve controlled 53.7 percent of shot attempts and outscored opponents by a plus-31 goal differential at five-on-five. They aren’t in the elite company they had in 2022-23, but they continue performing at a solid level.

Dunn is also quietly top 10 among all NHL defensemen in scoring with 104 points in 132 games since the start of last season.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Victor Hedman drives a ton of offense — he’s producing at nearly a point per game — but his defensive results have slipped from his prime. Tampa Bay bleeds shots and high-danger chances against with its top pair on the ice, as Hedman’s 3.14 expected goals-against-per-hour rate is the worst mark among Lightning defensemen.

Part of the limitation is that Tampa Bay doesn’t have a bona fide top-pair partner for Hedman. He’s spent most of the season alongside less established defensemen like Raddysh and Perbix which isn’t ideal.

Thomas Chabot leads Ottawa’s blue line in ice time but the Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub pair chews up significantly tougher matchups against top lines. Sanderson has played more than double the minutes against elite competition than Chabot has this season, according to PuckIQ, which is why we’re classifying Sanderson-Zub as Ottawa’s top pair.

Sanderson and Zub have been bright spots in a tirefire season, as they’ve handily won the shot, scoring chance and actual goal shares in a tough role.

Toronto’s top pair grades out middle of the pack in goal differential and is roughly break-even at controlling play. Morgan Rielly has been terrific for most of the season but T.J. Brodie, who at one point was one of the NHL’s premier shutdown defensemen, has had a challenging, mistake-prone season. He’s aging and has had to battle through personal challenges, too.

Roman Josi’s pair is coming out slightly ahead on shots, scoring chances and actual goals. Josi’s producing a ton individually, but interestingly, the Predators are only scoring 2.65 goals per hour offensively during his five-on-five shifts. Some of that might have to do with a lack of forward help because Josi’s spent only 33.9 percent of his ice time with Nashville’s electric first line, meaning he’s often sharing the ice with their less talented forwards.

Alex Pietrangelo’s pair isn’t doing a stellar job of controlling play but their numbers are only slightly down from last season, which finished with a Stanley Cup victory. Vegas’ blue line is elite because of how deep it is from No. 1 to No. 6, not because the team is driven by Norris-caliber superstars at the top of the lineup.

Dallas’ top pair, anchored by Miro Heiskanen, has done an exceptional job of controlling play so I wouldn’t worry about the unspectacular goal differential. Heiskanen’s defensive metrics are elite, including a Dallas blue-line best 1.95 expected goals-against-per-hour rate, yet his pair’s actual goals-against rate is 2.72. He’s been unlucky not to get more saves from his goalies.

Recently, the Stars have stumbled upon an uber-dynamic partnership between Heiskanen and Thomas Harley that’s controlled a whopping 62.9 percent of scoring chances and outscored teams 18-10.

Brock Faber has had a sensational rookie season. He’s been thrown into a No. 1 role (Jared Spurgeon has been hurt for most of the season), splitting time with Jake Middleton and Jonas Brodin as his partner, and has thrived. The 21-year-old right-shot defender owns precocious defensive metrics and has scored 33 points in 56 games despite not sniffing Minnesota’s top power-play unit for a large chunk of the early season.

Cale Makar and Devon Toews’ numbers are slightly below the high bar they’ve set as a duo. (Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)

Colorado Avalanche

Colorado’s top pair of Cale Makar and Devon Toews has played better than their goal differential suggests — Makar’s 3.04 goals-against-per-hour rate is inflated from bad goaltending — but their play-driving numbers haven’t been elite like we’re accustomed to. Makar’s tilted the ice to the tune of a dominant 57 percent share of shot attempts over the last two seasons but has dipped to 52.9 percent in 2023-24.

Seth Jones is the big name on Chicago’s top pair, but watch them play and Alex Vlasic’s smooth, rangy presence is more impactful. Remarkably, Vlasic owned a positive goal differential on this hapless Blackhawks team until their most recent game. Keep an eye on the massive 22-year-old as a budding shutdown defender.

Detroit’s first pair of Moritz Seider and Jake Walman doesn’t have pretty numbers on paper but the two also have some of the most extreme, difficult usage in the NHL. Seider always looks like a beast when you watch the Red Wings play, but by the eye, it doesn’t seem like Walman’s playing nearly as well defensively as last season. There are breakdowns where he’ll be caught out of position and leave Seider on an island.

Colton Parayko has put together a strong bounce-back season, even though the surface-level numbers may not reflect it. He’s played like a two-way workhorse on the top pair, it’s just a shame that he doesn’t have more help. Parayko lacks a true top-pair caliber partner as he’s mostly played with Nick Leddy.

The Sabres’ top pair is controlling shots and scoring chances better than its goal differential indicates but it still hasn’t been a banner year. Rasmus Dahlin is an unbelievably gifted talent but his overall two-way play hasn’t been close to a Norris-caliber level.

Interestingly, Dahlin’s on-ice numbers are significantly better across the board away from Mattias Samuelsson, who’s out for the season with an injury.

New Jersey hasn’t had a consistent “first pair” because of injuries. Dougie Hamilton, the Devils’ true No.1 defenseman, tore his pectoral muscle after the first 20 games and his partner, Jonas Siegenthaler, missed some games in January and February as well.

Siegenthaler’s regressed significantly this season which, coupled with Hamilton’s injury, explains why the Devils’ top pair has struggled. Simon Nemec has been excellent stepping up in a first-pair, right-side role and Luke Hughes has played well elsewhere in the lineup too, but New Jersey’s overall blue line won’t get back on track until Siegenthaler and John Marino (once he’s healthy) return to the form they showed last year.

Mike Matheson is averaging a whopping 25:24 per game on a young, inexperienced team. The results aren’t pretty but that’s to be expected when you ask a player who’s talented but not a bona fide No. 1 defenseman to take on such a difficult role on a rebuilding team. Matheson’s a beautiful skater and has already hit a career-high 41 points, but he’s prone to defensive gaffes.

John Carlson continues chewing up huge minutes but at 34, he needs more help. Martin Fehervary and Rasmus Sandin (the two left-shot defensemen who’ve played at least 250 minutes alongside Carlson) aren’t sufficient top-pair caliber partners and the forward group is anemic offensively, which partially explains the first pair’s abysmal 1.78 goals-scored-per-hour rate.

Philadelphia’s top pair has taken an ugly ride on the scoreboard, but there’s more than meets the eye. Travis Sanheim has been solid for most of the year anchoring the top pair, as he’s driven a positive share of shot attempts and scoring chances playing matchup minutes. He’s going through a remarkably unlucky stretch in terms of bounces both defensively and offensively.

Of course, the poor goal differential can’t entirely be explained by bad luck — Sanheim isn’t a true No. 1 defenseman even with his excellent bounce back, and the seams do show at some points.

San Jose’s top pair has predictably fallen off a cliff without Erik Karlsson. Mario Ferraro’s a decent player but it’s an impossible task for him to anchor a first pairing with such a bad team around him.

Cam Fowler is overmatched playing in a No. 1 role on a bad team. He turned 32 in December so his age is starting to catch up with him and he lacks a high-end partner. He’s spent most of the year alongside Jackson LaCombe, who has a bright future but is learning the ropes as a rookie. They’re both left-handed, too, so one of them has had to play their off-side.

(Top photos of Quinn Hughes and Charlie McAvoy: Bob Frid and Bob DeChiara / USA Today)