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In today’s newsletter, we’re looking ahead to the weekend with some big spring games quickly approaching. But first …
Underrated NFL Prospects?
Edge rushers whose stock is falling
Ahead of this month’s NFL Draft, I spoke with Jacob Robinson, author of our NFL newsletter, Scoop City, to answer a simple question: Why are players who over-produced in college falling in NFL Draft evaluations? Today we’re looking at three edge rushers. (Note: This section first appeared in today’s Scoop City.)
1. DE Mohamed Kamara from Colorado State: Jayna: Kamara ranked fourth in the FBS in sacks last season with 1.08 per game and was within the top 10 in tackles for loss. In his sixth year of eligibility, he had one of the most productive seasons in team history and earned his conference defensive player of the year honors.
Jacob: Despite his impressive resume, his measurables (6 feet 1, 248 pounds with 32 3/8-inch arms) are not what scouts expect at the position. Still, Kamara’s energetic athleticism should land him a roster spot — I’ve seen him mocked to the 49ers in round four — and is on full display here:
2. DE Joe Evans from Iowa: Jayna: Iowa’s defense led the FBS in yards per play allowed (4.08) last season, with Evans as an integral part. The former walk-on led an elite defense in TFLs, QB pressures and sacks. Evans recorded two games with four sacks in 2023, and his 28 career sacks rank fourth in Iowa history.
Jacob: Evans didn’t receive a combine invitation, but with almost all 32 teams in attendance during Iowa’s pro day, he impressed scouts. A 41.5-inch vertical jump, 4.67-second 40-yard dash and 24 reps of 225 pounds will do that. One catch: To land with an NFL team, Evans pitched playing fullback. “Really my pitch is that I’ll play anywhere,” he said. I’m rooting for him.
3. DE Jalen Green from James Madison: Jayna: James Madison was 9-0 with Green in the lineup in 2023 before a knee injury caused him to miss the final three games. Still, a season with 21 TFLs and 15.5 sacks earned him first-team All-America honors from The Athletic. Green’s breakout senior campaign included two forced fumbles and a pick-six in an eight-point win against South Alabama.
Jacob: Green’s spot as edge No. 46 in Dane Brugler’s draft preview, “The Beast,” suggests we might not hear his name called. Given Green’s lack of size (at 6-1, 245 pounds) when compared to NFL offensive linemen, it’s difficult for scouts to be confident in that breakout campaign translating to the pros. If not, I’d expect him to sign with a team in camp.
Mandel’s Mailbag
What makes a successful spring scrimmage?
How do coaches figure out whether their team had a good spring scrimmage? If one side is successful, then the other side is unsuccessful. Does it come down to throwing results out the window and evaluating the All-22 play-by-play and grading each player’s technique? — Shane B.
The coaches are certainly better at it than those of us watching on TV or in the stadium. I watch a lot of spring games, and generally, all I can glean from them is whether the quarterback looks good. Or you may see a receiver or defensive back make a highlight-worthy play.
But the coaches, who know what play was called on each snap, can watch the tape and see which individuals did their jobs well and which ones screwed up. They’re also seeing up and close in practice who is moving well, who is reacting too slowly, etc.
Most of all, scrimmages are an opportunity for certain guys to “pop.” While it’s true, if a defensive lineman swarms into the backfield, it’s hard for the layperson to say how much of it was him and how much was poor blocking by the offensive line. But the player still made a big play, and that counts for something. Spring games are when I first noticed the likes of Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Trevor Lawrence, Jerry Jeudy, Garrett Wilson, Malik Hooker, Kool Aid McKinstry and others.
This weekend we get Ohio State’s spring game at noon ET on Fox and Alabama’s at 4 p.m. on ESPN. This means the 2024 college football season is officially underway.
Read the full mailbag here.
Recruiting Power Rankings
Biggest risers and fallers
Our great recruiting staff ranked every power-conference program (plus Washington State and Oregon State) Nos. 1 through 70 based on recruiting potential yesterday. Of course, Georgia leads the list at No. 1, but there was plenty of shakeup throughout the rankings with realignment, the coaching carousel, NIL and the expanded CFP changing the landscape. Here’s a look at the biggest risers and fallers in recruiting.
⬆️: No program moved up more spots in the rankings than Kansas, which jumped from 68th to 52nd. Coach Lance Leipold and the Jayhawks just completed a memorable 9-4 campaign that included the program’s first bowl win since 2008. Although Kansas has to look out of state for most of its blue-chip talent, winning games is the simplest way to improve the recruiting health of a program.
⬇️: Colorado fell to No. 37 — down 16 spots from its ranking last year. The Deion Sanders experiment is in full swing and, as it turns out, the transfer portal seems to be the crutch for Coach Prime. It will be interesting to see how a return to the Big 12 impacts the Buffs’ potential in the future, though.
🧩: One program the voting committee ranked all across the board was Baylor. The Bears landed at 45th in the power rankings, with a highest vote of 28 and a lowest of 65. The pluses are Baylor’s location in talent-rich Texas and a new $90 million football development center is on track to open this season. The minuses? The Bears need a reset after signing the 67th-ranked class in the 2024 cycle, and a disappointing 3-9 season in 2023 caused head coach Dave Aranda to change his offensive and defensive play callers.
Spring Games
This week’s schedule
Here’s a list of notable spring games this weekend. Games in bold will have live coverage by The Athletic. All times are in ET.
Friday:
- UCF, 7 p.m.
- Kansas, 8 p.m.
Saturday:
- Houston, 11 a.m., ESPN+
- Ohio State, Noon, Fox
- Georgia, 1 p.m., ESPN+
- Arkansas, 1 p.m., ESPN+
- Florida 1 p.m., ESPN+
- Kentucky 1 p.m., ESPN+
- Tennessee, 1 p.m., ESPN+
- Utah, 1 p.m., Pac-12 Network
- Penn State, 2 p.m., BTN
- LSU, 2 p.m., ESPN+
- Alabama, 4 p.m., ESPN
- Miami, 4 p.m., ESPN+
- Ole Miss, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Quick Snaps
Scott Dochterman has an update today on where the pay-for-play debate stands in college sports. “The avalanche has officially hit the NCAA,” said Dan Methson, a former NCAA associate director of enforcement.
Tony Alford is embracing “a little weird” jump Ohio State-to-Michigan jump. Austin Meek has more on the running back coach’s switch across the rivalry.
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(Top photo of Mohamed Kamara: Kirby Lee / USA Today)