Will a US missile system in the Philippines make northern Luzon a ‘high value target’ for China?

The uproar centres on the US Typhon Weapon System, which is capable of firing both SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, with operational ranges of more than 240km (150 miles) and 2,500km, respectively.

The Typhon was first deployed to the Philippines in April for use in the Balikatan, the annual US-Philippines joint military exercises. The military has confirmed the system is still in Luzon but has not said how long it will remain there.
Philippine army personnel fire a self-propelled gun system during a joint military exercise with the US in Laoag on Luzon island’s northwest coast on May 8. Photo: AFP

Lieutenant General Michael Cederholm, commander of the US 1st Marine Expeditionary Force, told reporters last month that the Typhon would only remain deployed in the Philippines for exercises to understand the new system’s capabilities.

“When we are done training with it, we will bring it back home and continue to develop our tactics, techniques, procedures. But this training environment, with a trusted ironclad ally, gives us an opportunity to expand that training even more,” Cederholm said.

Joshua Espeña, a resident fellow and vice-president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank, told This Week that while the Typhon could improve the Philippines’ deterrence capabilities, “the obvious but calculated disadvantage is China’s escalatory reaction”.

“It would come as no surprise that China might, in a certain scenario, seek to neutralise these missile systems,” Espeña said, but added that the Philippines felt this was a worthwhile risk to improve the country’s air defence systems to counter Chinese strike capabilities.

China’s vice-minister of foreign affairs Sun Weidong called the Typhon’s deployment to the Philippines a “serious threat to the security of the countries of the region” that would “seriously undermine regional peace and stability”, according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement released last week.

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US and Philippines conduct annual Balikatan drills amid rising tensions with China

US and Philippines conduct annual Balikatan drills amid rising tensions with China

P1NAS spokesman Antonio Tinio argued that deploying the Typhon in northern Luzon meant making the region “a high value target” for pre-emptive attacks or retaliation in the event of war.

“We denounce the Marcos Jnr administration for allowing the US to deploy its new missile system. In doing so, it has turned northern Luzon into a legitimate military target if armed conflict were to break out with China,” warned Tinio, who is also a former congressman with the Alliance of Concerned Teachers.

Espeña noted that China could respond to the Typhon by deploying more of its vessels to the South China Sea to challenge the commitment of US-Philippine forces to utilise their anti-ship missile systems.

“Here, the trend moves towards brinkmanship, which will be more dangerous. Yet, again, Manila knows the risks and calculated that escalatory reactions are lesser evils than appeasement as occurred in the previous administration,” he added, referring to former president Rodrigo Duterte’s more conciliatory approach towards China.

The BRP Jose Rizal launching a C-Star Surface to Surface Anti-Ship Missile directed towards a mock enemy target during this year’s Balikatan. Photo: AFP
Defence analyst Chester Cabalza, a fellow at the US State Department’s Study of the US Institutes on National Security, said it would be a contradiction if Manila rejected the presence of the Typhon while utilising India’s BrahMos naval-based inter-ballistic missile system, which the Philippines has bought and is set to receive by March 2024.
With a range of 290km to 400km once launched from submarines, ships, planes or land platforms, BrahMos are medium-range supersonic missiles that travel at Mach 2.8, or about three times faster than the speed of sound.

“Both missiles will beef up the military weapons system of the Philippines for deterrence,” Cabalza told This Week in Asia, meaning the presence of either was likely to provoke Beijing.

“If Manila maintains its One China Policy and does not interfere in the Beijing-Taipei confrontation, the Philippines may be spared from [mainland] China’s wrath. But if it escalates and Manila supports Taiwan’s cause, most probably yes,” he added.

According to Cabalza, Manila’s role during any such conflict should only be to prepare contingency plans for evacuating Filipino workers and helping refugees.

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