Greg Gard sat at the podium following Wisconsin’s opening-round Big Ten tournament victory against Maryland two weeks ago and expressed cautious optimism about where the Badgers were headed. It had been a difficult six-week stretch to close the regular season, but with a dominant 87-56 win against the Terrapins, Gard had seen enough over the previous few days to declare that the team was “trending back in the right direction and really starting to click.”
It certainly felt that way when Wisconsin won two more games, beating NCAA Tournament-bound Northwestern and national title contender Purdue to reach the conference championship game (an eventual 93-87 loss to Illinois). So when Wisconsin earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, there was hope the Badgers could carry those performances forward and recapture the magic of a group that once stood 16-4 overall and ranked sixth in the AP Top 25.
Instead, Wisconsin laid an egg so big an ostrich would be envious of its size. No. 12 seed James Madison dispatched Wisconsin 72-61 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. It wasn’t simply that Wisconsin lost, which would have been disappointing enough. It was the fact that the Badgers seemed so ill-prepared to meet the moment. They turned the ball over 14 seconds into the game, recorded a season-high 19 turnovers overall, never held a lead and somehow made just 8-of-18 layup attempts, crumbling under the Dukes’ defensive pressure.
Wisconsin established its program as successful enough over the past couple of decades to the point where it needs to be judged based on how it performs in the NCAA Tournament, even if 35 games came before that. That’s why it’s hard to feel like Wisconsin’s season was a success. The Badgers, who finished 22-14, did some amazing things, which included losing just twice over a 2 1/2-month stretch at midseason and reaching the conference tournament title game. But they also sputtered and came up short when it mattered most.
It is a trend that needs to change.
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Gard has won 63.5 percent of his games overall and nearly 60 percent of his Big Ten games. In January, he became the sixth-fastest Big Ten coach to win 100 conference games. He is a two-time Big Ten coach of the year whose teams have earned a share of the conference regular season title twice. And, it’s worth noting, Wisconsin did improve this season over the previous year. So it’s not as though Gard’s job status currently is in danger, but it’s clear he needs to be able to figure out how to help his teams — 2-4 in the last four NCAA Tournaments — sustain success longer.
Wisconsin closed the 2021 season 3-7, with all seven losses coming to nationally ranked teams, and lost in the second round to eventual national champion Baylor. The 2022 team earned a share of the regular season conference title but lost three of its last four games with a hampered Johnny Davis, including in the second round in Milwaukee as a No. 3 seed to No. 11 seed Iowa State after point guard Chucky Hepburn injured his ankle. The 2023 team was ranked 14th in the country at midseason but missed the NCAA Tournament and went to the NIT. This season, Wisconsin finished 6-10 and flamed out in the first round.
Gard’s teams have not made it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2017. His hottest team in 2020, which won its final eight regular-season games, didn’t have an opportunity to play more because the rest of the season was canceled amid the pandemic, a what-if that perhaps could have changed the conversation around Gard in the postseason.
There’s no doubt reaching the Sweet 16 is hard. Illinois accomplished that feat this season for the first time in 19 years. Marquette did so for the first time in 11 years. Following in the footsteps of Hall of Fame coach Bo Ryan, who reached the second weekend seven times in 14 full seasons — including back-to-back Final Fours — likely is part of why expectations have become the way they are. Ryan also didn’t have to deal with NIL and the transfer portal in the way Gard does. But results are what matter, not excuses. And the Badgers haven’t played at a level close to competing for a national championship since the 2017 team lost to Florida in overtime in the Sweet 16.
The question in the aftermath of another missed opportunity is: Now what? How can Gard build a team capable of achieving more?
Three major moves have transpired already this offseason, none of which were particularly surprising. Sophomore guard Connor Essegian and freshman forward Gus Yalden announced they would enter the transfer portal, and sophomore guard AJ Storr announced that he had “decided to engage and experience the NBA Draft process” while maintaining his college eligibility.
Badger Nation thank you❤️ pic.twitter.com/0xRycl0b67
— Connor Essegian (@CEssegian) March 25, 2024
Essegian averaged 11.7 points per game as a freshman and became a fan favorite but could not consistently crack the regular playing rotation this season, with those minutes going to Storr, Max Klesmit and freshman guard John Blackwell. Essegian’s defensive issues contributed to keeping him off the floor, and the fact that he shot just 30.3 percent from 3 — which was the best part of his game — didn’t help matters.
Some fans expressed frustration with Gard for not playing Essegian more, but Essegian was caught in a numbers game with teammates who simply gave the Badgers more. And while losing him to the portal hurts, it felt like an inevitably. Yalden, a four-star recruit, was cited twice by UW-Madison police in the fall, first for underage drinking and then for marijuana possession, and took a brief leave of absence before redshirting.
Storr’s situation is particularly interesting because it will have a substantial domino effect on next season. The portal window closes May 1, the draft combine begins in Chicago on May 13 and the deadline for early entrants to withdraw from the draft and return to school is June 16. Gard is not in a position to sit out the transfer portal season and lose potential additions while waiting on Storr. Should Storr return, Wisconsin would gladly take him and figure out the scholarship situation. However, Storr’s draft declaration message could be construed as a goodbye. He noted that, “The memories, lessons, and friendships I’ve made here will forever be a part of who I am.”
— Aj storr (@storr_aj) March 26, 2024
Wisconsin has reportedly reached out to several players already in the portal, including former Omaha forward Frankie Fidler, who was high school teammates in Nebraska with Hepburn. Fidler averaged 20.1 points and 6.3 rebounds per game this season. Other players include former James Madison wing Terrence Edwards Jr. (17.2 points) and former Belmont wing Cade Tyson (16.2 points).
What’s difficult to project is how much better Wisconsin will be next season. Storr’s status notwithstanding, Wisconsin is set to return three starters —Hepburn, Klesmit and center Steven Crowl — as well as potential rotation players Blackwell, Nolan Winter, Kamari McGee, Markus Ilver and Carter Gilmore. Yet simply bringing back experience doesn’t automatically mean Wisconsin will thrive because the Badgers did the same thing this season before stumbling in the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin clearly is attempting to find help with an athletic wing scorer if Storr moves on, and a potential frontcourt reinforcement figures to be on the table now as well. The Badgers are adding two scholarship freshmen with point guard Daniel Freitag and forward Jack Robison. Freitag, a top-10 point guard in the country, is arguably Gard’s biggest recruiting win and could learn from Hepburn while challenging for minutes right away in the backcourt.
The cupboard at Wisconsin is far from bare, and that is a good sign. The challenge for everyone is figuring out what this program can do under Gard to take another step forward.
GO DEEPER
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