Mexican tariffs on Chinese steel products indicate a willingness to accommodate US demands, analysts said, with additional trade curbs in the run-up to November’s presidential election set to add to the concerns of Chinese producers and investors.
Mexico’s Ministry of Economy imposed a provisional compensatory duty of 31 per cent on Chinese steel nail producers on Friday, according to its Official Gazette of the Federation, after concluding an anti-dumping investigation that had started in September.
Chinese firms still have a chance to appeal, but the tariffs came less than two weeks after Mexico also imposed duties of between 3.68 and 12.35 per cent on steel balls imported from China after concluding another anti-dumping investigation.
And according to China Trade Remedies Information, a monitoring agency affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce, more than 240 similar cases were filed against Chinese companies in recent years, representing about one tenth of the cases filed by the US.
The US will likely increase measures aimed at curtailing the rise in Chinese exports and foreign direct investment flows to Mexico
“Trade data continues to indicate the increasing participation of Chinese inputs in US-bound exports,” S&P Global Market Intelligence said on Monday.
“The US will likely increase measures aimed at curtailing the rise in Chinese exports and foreign direct investment flows to Mexico, such as those applied to electric vehicle software and port cranes.”
Trade by value between China and Mexico rose by 6 per cent year on year to US$100.2 billion last year, according to customs data.
China’s export to Mexico, meanwhile, increased by 5.1 per cent to US$81.5 billion, with major trading items including car parts and electronic components.
Xu Shicheng, vice-president at the Latin American Society of China, said that “it’s nothing new” for Mexico to levy anti-dumping duties on Chinese products.
China’s investment in Mexico is up – but is dodging US tariffs the whole story?
China’s investment in Mexico is up – but is dodging US tariffs the whole story?
However, the influence of the US would continue whether Trump or incumbent Joe Biden wins the presidential election later this year.
“The American government will still launch new restrictive measures towards the Mexican-made vehicles, especially those electric vehicle producers of China or Chinese-Mexican joint ventures that export cars to the US,” he said.
Container shipping imports from China to Mexico in January increased by 60 per cent year on year, according to ocean freight rate benchmarking and intelligence platform Xeneta.
Such a trade lane has been “further fuelling suspicions it has become a ‘back door into the US”, the firm added.
If Trumps wins, [the situation] might be different … because Trump will not give anything to Mexico
Annual growth in container shipping between China and Mexico increased by 34.8 per cent in 2023 compared to an increase of 3.5 per cent in 2022, according to Xeneta.
Mexico will also head to the ballot box in June to decide its next president, with ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum leading against opponent Xochitl Galvez, according to the latest polls.
“The problem is that the trade deficit in Mexico against China is ballooning to nearly US$100 billion … for the size of Mexico, this is huge,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis.
“If Trump wins, [the situation] might be different … because Trump will not give anything to Mexico,” she added.